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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Same issues with the 3k that the 12k have...lakes energy is further east and will kick it rather than phase...it will be east of 18z....ugh

Hmm, the. Surface low at 42 is def West compared to 18z tho

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

3k gets snow into the Shen Valley at 38. I think it is wrong. But I would take it.

After this winter any model that shows us getting snow is automatically wrong until proven otherwise. 

Looks like it's on the verge of breaking snow out into the cities at hr 43.

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Just now, mappy said:

Hmm, the. Surface low at 42 is def West compared to 18z tho

Saw that...H5 is closed in north Georgia compared to open at 18z...trough recovered and is neutral...and I usually resist prediction!

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Saw that...H5 is closed in north Georgia compared to open at 18z...trough recovered and is neutral...and I usually resist prediction!

Low is moving much slower, further south and west compared to 18z. Not as much precip thrown back so not sure what to make of it 

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2 minutes ago, terpsnation said:

I dunno, 3k looks very different, but precip wise may be a hold or slightly better for us. Slower, less expansive with the shield, but almost looks like it's tucking in closer to the coast and slowing down.

There's a lot less precip for the cities this run. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Low is moving much slower, further south and west compared to 18z. Not as much precip thrown back so not sure what to make of it 

Yeah...this seems to be the year where we have had good low tracks with little precip to show for it...looks like 4 hours of snow lol

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Just now, LP08 said:

Yeah...this seems to be the year where we have had good low tracks with little precip to show for it...looks like 4 hours of snow lol

Light snow at that. 18z had .5 qpf for all of us, this run barely has .2 

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

The 32 and 12K NAMS are very similar to each other. The 3K is very different with the western precip. It gives my area 4 or 5 inches. The other two NAM's give me nothing. Pretty wild the way the models have struggled with this setup for days.

12 and 32 are the same model at different resolution.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

3k is a disaster....because trended worse than 18z. Crossroads run and 3 steps back so far

It’s still a bit odd how the coastal goes right ots with that ull energy in a pretty good spot but maybe it’s that whole GL/50/50 low combo that’s causing trouble.  I’m more interested in the 0z. If those are still lame then it’ll be time.

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

3k is a disaster....because trended worse than 18z. Crossroads run and 3 steps back so far

This was over at 18z when other then the 3k nothing made a positive move.  Obviously the 3k was a bad run. We're way too close for that. If this was going to get it done we would see significant signs and trends every run at this point. When 18z failed to build on the progress of 12z what little hope I had slipped away.  At this point it's in miracle territory. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This was over at 18z when other then the 3k nothing made a positive move.  Obviously the 3k was a bad run. We're way too close for that. If this was going to get it done we would see significant signs and trends every run at this point. When 18z failed to build on the progress of 12z what little hope I had slipped away.  At this point it's in miracle territory. 

Yup.  It looks like your worst nightmare (mine too)..... a suppressed hooker.

 

MDstorm

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8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s still a bit odd how the coastal goes right ots with that ull energy in a pretty good spot but maybe it’s that whole GL/50/50 low combo that’s causing trouble.  I’m more interested in the 0z. If those are still lame then it’ll be time.

The NS is diving in right on top of it. Pressing it down so the upper low gets too far south then swings out before any capture can happen. We would need that NS to be diving in way west of where it is or better get it the hell out of there all together. 

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Really something...we finally catch a break with a slower system allowing the 50/50 to relax enough...but then we run into another problem with that stupid GL low...c'mon, man! May be it ain't meant to be (unless by an increasingly unlikely solution, lol). Any chance models may be reading that GL wrong or too strong? (or is that piece of energy already there now?]

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