mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Same issues with the 3k that the 12k have...lakes energy is further east and will kick it rather than phase...it will be east of 18z....ugh Hmm, the. Surface low at 42 is def West compared to 18z tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 3k gets snow into the Shen Valley at 38. I think it is wrong. But I would take it. After this winter any model that shows us getting snow is automatically wrong until proven otherwise. Looks like it's on the verge of breaking snow out into the cities at hr 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, mappy said: Hmm, the. Surface low at 42 is def West compared to 18z tho Saw that...H5 is closed in north Georgia compared to open at 18z...trough recovered and is neutral...and I usually resist prediction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 SLP basically sits at obx from hr 41-46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I dunno, 3k looks very different, but precip wise may be a hold or slightly better for us. Slower, less expansive with the shield, but almost looks like it's tucking in closer to the coast and slowing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Saw that...H5 is closed in north Georgia compared to open at 18z...trough recovered and is neutral...and I usually resist prediction! Low is moving much slower, further south and west compared to 18z. Not as much precip thrown back so not sure what to make of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Good amount of snow through 47 i81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, terpsnation said: I dunno, 3k looks very different, but precip wise may be a hold or slightly better for us. Slower, less expansive with the shield, but almost looks like it's tucking in closer to the coast and slowing down. There's a lot less precip for the cities this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Good amount of snow through 47 Nah, it would be light rates that don’t amount to much. Compared to 18z it’s lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: Low is moving much slower, further south and west compared to 18z. Not as much precip thrown back so not sure what to make of it Yeah...this seems to be the year where we have had good low tracks with little precip to show for it...looks like 4 hours of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 0z 3k continues to want to entertain. I’d like to see some improvements from the globals before I trust that outcome but clearly that ull is there to help and not hurt our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: Yeah...this seems to be the year where we have had good low tracks with little precip to show for it...looks like 4 hours of snow lol Light snow at that. 18z had .5 qpf for all of us, this run barely has .2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: Nah, it would be light rates that don’t amount to much. Compared to 18z it’s lame I should have said i81 corridor, I added after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 6z is going to be our run. That will turn everything around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 H5 going off the coast near Savannah doesn’t help either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I should have said i81 corridor, I added after Lol ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The 32 and 12K NAMS are very similar to each other. The 3K is very different with the western precip. It gives my area 4 or 5 inches. The other two NAM's give me nothing. Pretty wild the way the models have struggled with this setup for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: The 32 and 12K NAMS are very similar to each other. The 3K is very different with the western precip. It gives my area 4 or 5 inches. The other two NAM's give me nothing. Pretty wild the way the models have struggled with this setup for days. 12 and 32 are the same model at different resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 12 and 32 are the same model at different resolution. Ah. Thanks. Did not know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 The idea the low sits off OBX for 5 hours seems odd. Bottom line is we didn’t get NAMed. Not sure we won’t later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3k is a disaster....because trended worse than 18z. Crossroads run and 3 steps back so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 3k is a disaster....because trended worse than 18z. Crossroads run and 3 steps back so far It’s still a bit odd how the coastal goes right ots with that ull energy in a pretty good spot but maybe it’s that whole GL/50/50 low combo that’s causing trouble. I’m more interested in the 0z. If those are still lame then it’ll be time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 3k is a disaster....because trended worse than 18z. Crossroads run and 3 steps back so far It isnt bad for those of us to the west. But I dont think it is right either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 3k is a disaster....because trended worse than 18z. Crossroads run and 3 steps back so far This was over at 18z when other then the 3k nothing made a positive move. Obviously the 3k was a bad run. We're way too close for that. If this was going to get it done we would see significant signs and trends every run at this point. When 18z failed to build on the progress of 12z what little hope I had slipped away. At this point it's in miracle territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: Of course SNE gets smoked. Not sure .5 qpf is getting smoked. A 3-6" snow is run of the mill up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This was over at 18z when other then the 3k nothing made a positive move. Obviously the 3k was a bad run. We're way too close for that. If this was going to get it done we would see significant signs and trends every run at this point. When 18z failed to build on the progress of 12z what little hope I had slipped away. At this point it's in miracle territory. Yup. It looks like your worst nightmare (mine too)..... a suppressed hooker. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not sure .5 qpf is getting smoked. A 3-6" snow is run of the mill up there. The 3k rakes them and it is still snowing at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Not sure .5 qpf is getting smoked. A 3-6" snow is run of the mill up there. Yeah a run of the mill 3-6" storm with a 970ish low sitting at the BM. NAM crapped the bed with qpf this run methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: It’s still a bit odd how the coastal goes right ots with that ull energy in a pretty good spot but maybe it’s that whole GL/50/50 low combo that’s causing trouble. I’m more interested in the 0z. If those are still lame then it’ll be time. The NS is diving in right on top of it. Pressing it down so the upper low gets too far south then swings out before any capture can happen. We would need that NS to be diving in way west of where it is or better get it the hell out of there all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Really something...we finally catch a break with a slower system allowing the 50/50 to relax enough...but then we run into another problem with that stupid GL low...c'mon, man! May be it ain't meant to be (unless by an increasingly unlikely solution, lol). Any chance models may be reading that GL wrong or too strong? (or is that piece of energy already there now?] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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