Kleimax Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Low over savannah at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 At 30...still an open wave through TN...18z had it closed off...Lakes energy coming in right over the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Not sure it’s gonna be as good, that NS is a bit stronger/faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Northern energy diving slightly quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, mappy said: Not sure it’s gonna be as good, that NS is a bit stronger/faster Too Far East with that energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: Too Far East with that energy Yup, it needs to stay behind the southern stream vort for us to have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Northern energy diving slightly quicker? Not seeing that honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 I don’t know, doesn’t look too bad to me. Maybe a hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 32k/12k look to hold serve imo. 3k is coming in with changes to the plains energy vs 18z....not sure yet if good or bad in the end not trying to forecast the model's forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: I don’t know, doesn’t look too bad to me. Maybe a hold? Perhaps the trough being a little “tighter” at the base will keep it generally a hold..but the the changes up top were not inspiring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: I don’t know, doesn’t look too bad to me. Maybe a hold? It’s amazing how the 500 shows steps back and yet it seems it may end up okay. Surface low is just a tad closer to the coast compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3k has a better looking "angle to the dangle" of the vorticity nosing South over the GL as early as 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: It’s amazing how the 500 shows steps back and yet it seems it may end up okay. Surface low is just a tad closer to the coast compared to 18z Yea this storm has not been easy. 500 looked a tad sharper early and maybe a little less separation with that Canadian situation lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Yeah the 3km NAM mat end up as good as the last NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: Yea this storm has not been easy. 500 looked a tad sharper early and maybe a little less separation with that Canadian situation lol. Less dig this time around, but the kicker seems stronger lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12k shows snow over the area by 21z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Through 48 the NAM gets flurries into the DC area. It is not a good run at the surface. And of course we get nothing from Leesburg west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 But the surface low is def east, so it won’t be much snow ninjad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, mappy said: Less dig this time around, but the kicker seems stronger lol I honestly don’t know what to think anymore. It’s starting to look like that ull might help us at least get fringed unlike the Boxing Day storm where we relied entirely on how close to the coast the low rides up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3k has slightly lower heights out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: I honestly don’t know what to think anymore. It’s starting to look like that ull might help us at least get fringed unlike the Boxing Day storm where we relied entirely on how close to the coast the low rides up. We need it to not dive on top and dive west of our vort...right now it’s right on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: I honestly don’t know what to think anymore. It’s starting to look like that ull might help us at least get fringed unlike the Boxing Day storm where we relied entirely on how close to the coast the low rides up. Yeah, this has been a frustrating one to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: We need it to not dive on top and dive west of our vort...right now it’s right on top Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Is the 32k NAM is the farthest East of all guidance with lp track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3km NAM h5 vort looks better than 18Z, but sim has less moisture at hr 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Welp i cant give up as long as the 3knam has it snowing for me in the EPH of WV monday at 10 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Same issues with the 3k that the 12k have...lakes energy is further east and will kick it rather than phase...it will be east of 18z....ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 3km NAM h5 vort looks better than 18Z, but sim has less moisture at hr 37. Surface low is a tad slower compared to 18z, hence the less sim radar precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 3km NAM h5 vort looks better than 18Z, but sim has less moisture at hr 37. NAM's are always weird with the surface in terms of precip. It's the usual getting NAM'd on random runs. This 3k run might be more realistic. I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3k gets snow into the Shen Valley at 38. I think it is wrong. But I would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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