BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Another reason to hope it’s correct as if we need one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: If you're going to try and "intelligently" insult people then the first thing you should do is take an English class and learn the difference between the word "lose" and "loose". Then get back to us. When is that tool finally going to get banned? Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Yeah I don’t get it. That map doesn’t have that purpose...that guy seems like a crock to me there is so much garbage on twitter i wish people would be a bit more judicious when posting random tweets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NWS just extended the WSW up 81 to near the intersection of 64 and 81 (not sure what counties those are). Essentially tripled the area under a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: It's all about that lakes disturbance. It's coming in further east and not behind the system. That will push the coastal further off the coast at our latitude before pulling it back for the northeast. If it ain't the 50/50 low...its that. This storm has had so many obstacles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GEFS took a step back from 12z, which is expected as the OP did, but it isn't too shabby. Mean for DC is 3", in line with EPS. This one's close. Nowcasting should be interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Please stop referencing the ensembles now. It’s been repeated that they don’t offer much more insight this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Please stop referencing the ensembles now. It’s been repeated that they don’t offer much more insight this close in Then stop the 12km NAM talks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 34 minutes ago, Cobalt said: HRDPS looks interesting enough Not really. That precip near us is really lite. Look where the low is. I doubt we get a big snow from a low track 200 miles off the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not really. That precip near us is really lite. Look where the low is. I doubt we get a big snow from a low track 200 miles off the outer banks. Agreed. Not a good look but at this point we have too many models to look at...what the hell is an Hrdps...might as well have the herpes model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 So at this point...can a general conclusion be made? (And is a conclusion safe at this point?) Or will 0z kinda be the deciding factor? (I'd imagine you could only call it that if it wasn't too far off 18z. But if it were to show a hit...yeah, we'd be happy, but it would just be more chaos (unless the other models would lock onto such a scenario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: That looks great. Much better than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So at this point...can a general conclusion be made? (And is a conclusion safe at this point?) Or will 0z kinda be the deciding factor? (I'd imagine you could only call it that if it wasn't too far off 18z. But if it were to show a hit...yeah, we'd be happy, but it would just be more chaos (unless the other models would lock onto such a scenario) Unfortunately I think the writing has been on the wall for the last few days. I would love to be wrong and gladly eat my words..lol but all models have zeroed in on central va. Occasionally they give us a glimmer of hope but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So at this point...can a general conclusion be made? (And is a conclusion safe at this point?) Or will 0z kinda be the deciding factor? (I'd imagine you could only call it that if it wasn't too far off 18z. But if it were to show a hit...yeah, we'd be happy, but it would just be more chaos (unless the other models would lock onto such a scenario) I think we need to wait until 0z tho we’re getting into nam range so you’d want that to trend better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Unfortunately I think the writing has been on the wall for the last few days. I would love to be wrong and gladly eat my words..lol but all models have zeroed in on central va. Occasionally they give us a glimmer of hope but that's about it. IMO we still have at least 1 or 2 run cycles before determining main details such as track. Onset isn't till near 12z Monday (if at all), so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Taking from banter thread (ty @KingJWx) 4 minutes ago, KingJWx said: DT posted his first guess. Looks too bullish for NOVA/Maryland, but whatever. And yeah, it does seem a tad bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: IMO we still have at least 1 or 2 run cycles before determining main details such as track. Onset isn't till near 12z Monday (if at all), so we'll see. Trust me i would love to pull a hail Mary. Ive seen this look over the years too many times and know it usually results in snow south of us and northeast of us. Once the moisture bomb coming at us from the west disappeared I knew we were in trouble. It is what it is .I would love to be wrong and eat my words..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Taking from banter thread (ty @KingJWx) And yeah, it does seem a tad bullish Haha. No way I'm seeing 2 inches at the md/pa border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 We it is also nowcasting time. We can see where the SW are and see if the models have them in the right places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 36 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Trust me i would love to pull a hail Mary. Ive seen this look over the years too many times and know it usually results in snow south of us and northeast of us. Once the moisture bomb coming at us from the west disappeared I knew we were in trouble. It is what it is .I would love to be wrong and eat my words..lol Only thing different with this storm is it hasnt happened yet. I dont disagree with you but, guidance has been constantly shifting leading to no real conclusion. Chances diminish greatly once west of 95 but 00z should either be the nail or the carrot for us. lol Each having equal chances imo...which is unique in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Just now, poolz1 said: Only thing different with this storm is it hasnt happened yet. I dont disagree with you but, guidance has been constantly shifting leading to no real conclusion. Chances diminish greatly once west of 95 but 00z should either be the nail or the carrot for us. lol Each having equal chances imo...which is unique in itself. If anything, this storm will be interesting to nowcast. Having a feeling at least one of us in this forum will be reporting parachutes falling from the sky, while one (or many) is experiencing cloudy skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 --srefs suck-- They did increase precip from their 9z run to 15z run. Now get about .5" to the cities. Also siginificantly increased precip into Pa. Now get at least .25" everywhere except the extreme northeastern part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 What's the "proper" pronunciation of the NAM model? "Nam" like "yam" or like the country in southeast Asia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 1 minute ago, smokeybandit said: What's the "proper" pronunciation of the NAM model? "Nam" like "yam" or like the country in southeast Asia? I say NAM like yam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Light precip, temps 35-38 during entire storm, mid-day in mid-March, I’m out. See y’all next winter. Bye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 32 minutes ago, Cobalt said: If anything, this storm will be interesting to nowcast. Having a feeling at least one of us in this forum will be reporting parachutes falling from the sky, while one (or many) is experiencing cloudy skies It is having that look....I bet I can guess who will be reporting cloudy skies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 12k nam has the ULL a little more SW than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12k nam has the ULL a little more SW than 18z And the lakes disturbance barreling down on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Yeah...changes are minor...but not in a good way so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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