cae Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looking through past model runs, it seems like we've come full cycle. Last Sunday the 12z GFS run got us excited with a northern stream wave that dropped below us, closed off, and gave us lots of snow on Monday the 12th. Then by 12z Wednesday it had shifted to a front-running southern wave that gave us snow starting on Sunday the 11th. The 12z H5 maps today look closer to the idea the GFS had last Sunday than last Wednesday. The three GFS runs (12z Sunday the 4th, 12z Wednesday the 7th, 12z today) are shown below for comparison. The evolution beyond that point is a little different today than it was last Sunday. No model is currently showing the fully captured closed off bomb the GFS showed last Sunday, but the 3k NAM just showed how we could still get a good outcome from this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 RGEM looks to stay flat this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: These are NOT blanket statements! They are concerns. Real ones. Notice your statement...historical events. Right and perfect conditions, perfect setup. It doesn’t happen too often this late in the season. I think we all realize dynamic systems that puke snow work best during peak sun hours in mid March when temps are marginal. At the opposite end is the St. Patricks day storm a few years ago that featured anomalous cold- it snowed only moderately here and accumulated very efficiently from late morning through late afternoon with temps in the low to mid 20s. IMO what the 3k NAM is depicting probably wont be very close to reality, but if it did go down that way- pretty long duration with varying rates- there would still be some decent accumulations, maybe 4-5", rather than the 10-12 that might occur in the heart of winter or with with colder temps . Some melting would be expected with lighter rates during the mid afternoon. We all get it. No one here would argue that. It still would be a nice event verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, packfan98 said: RGEM looks to stay flat this run. Looks a bit better than 12z at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 If I remember correctly, when this started showing up on the long term models, it was March 12th-13th. It will be interesting if it does actually end up Monday to Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 23 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: That run occurred very early in the AM, ended midday. Difference from dumping during peak hours. You’re thinking of 3/25/13. 3/25/14 started after 7 am at both IAD and DCA and continued into the afternoon until around 6 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: I meant it as an addiction- I can't step away from the forum! I absolutely choose to read every single comment and love every bit of it! Oh! Then I apologize and agree 100%! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 We are really going to be coming down to the wire before we know what this thing will do huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, packfan98 said: RGEM looks to stay flat this run. Drives the primary further north. Looks a little better at the surface. Better at h5. Still misses. It's okay. It trended better. Every model I have seen has trended slightly better or just plain better since 6z this morning. Nothing is set in stone and we all know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 18z GFS at 33 -- 1008 SLP in E TN/extreme SW NC 36 -- transfer ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: We are really going to be coming down to the wire before we know what this thing will do huh? Could it possibly go down any other way? I mean, this is the Hail Mary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS looks different again. A little more like the 18z NAM at the upper levels through 30hrs at least. But I think it might still work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS H5 has some slight improvement so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 At 36, closed off 500mb - was open in the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Through 36 the lakes disturbance is further north east of 12z. We want that further west not east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 55 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: I do remember DT wxrisk saying something about a "rex block" which would only allow so much NW shifts on the models. 53 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said: yes he mentions that on every update gets kinda of tiresome I lol at people that say that. A Rex block encourages a track suppressed to the extent it's unlikely a storm cuts to Detroit. But there have been storms that tracked too north for richmond and even D.C. In a Rex block. Blocking is a hemispheric level thing. The exact track of a synoptic storm is more detailed. The difference between a track 50 miles off hatteras and one 50 miles inside is nothing. You wouldn't even notice the difference in the location or amplitude of a block that creates such a small difference in track. 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure why we have to do this every.single.year. I mean yea, it can totally suck and not accumulate in March. I AGREE. But that's not what the 3k showed. Blanket statements that have been proven false over and over again get on my nerves. If it's light snow during the day in March it usually doesn't work. We can all agree on that. But there are dozens of historical events that proven the blanket statement false. The truth will set you free. My concerns are that the heavy bands miss us like the consensus of globals and any light fringe stuff won't overcome march. If it goes down like 3k we're good. I'm trying out the JI theory with this that we did better when im was more of a skeptic. It's working so far since last night. I'm gonna downplay this right into a paste thump. I do have concerns until I see more results like 3k and consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think we all realize dynamic systems that puke snow work best during peak sun hours in mid March when temps are marginal. At the opposite end is the St. Patricks day storm a few years ago that featured anomalous cold- it snowed only moderately here and accumulated very efficiently from late morning through late afternoon with temps in the low to mid 20s. IMO the what the 3k NAM is depicting probably wont be very close to reality, but if it did go down that way- pretty long duration with varying rates- there would still be some decent accumulations, maybe 4-5", rather than the 10-12 that might occur in the heart of winter or with with colder temps . Some melting would be expected with lighter rates during the mid afternoon. We all get it. No one here would argue that. It still would be a nice event verbatim. Good post. When I make the March complexities comments, I make them from more of an transportation impacts perspective vs what falls IMBY. Nature of my job and communicating of risks and what constitutes high impact vs low or medium. I’m always thinking like the partners do and I brief and what they deem significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS in my opinion won’t be quite as good as 12z but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looks like the storm is held back a tad. Wonder if this means it'll have more time to phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: Bob chill... You are a looser. You are all loosers. You're talking about maps like you're about to jerk off to them. You probably all are! It's really strange that all of you do this... This whole thing... Get a life!!! Don't bother responding, I'm not checking this later..like you guys do..lol. I'm going to go enjoy living... You know, in the real world. I said what I need to, have fun chumps. Hahahaha If you're going to try and "intelligently" insult people then the first thing you should do is take an English class and learn the difference between the word "lose" and "loose". Then get back to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: GFS in my opinion won’t be quite as good as 12z but close It's all about that lakes disturbance. It's coming in further east and not behind the system. That will push the coastal further off the coast at our latitude before pulling it back for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Snow starts in DC 18z Monday according to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Needs to reform back in close, or it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3k nam has built a nice little island out in an ocean of despair. GFS didn't make any meaningful shifts towards a better solution. GFS wasn't all that close to bringing it up the coast. Looks pretty identical to the 18z rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Need the lakes ULL to get behind and not over the top...pushes it east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Yea, GFS has less stream interaction. One step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Phasing doesn't look strong enough IMO on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM big step forward, GFS small step back. No rest or certainty with this thing until it’s go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Is the NAM not sometimes too overamped? And is there any theory to the old story that the 18z GFS used to have a SE bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Is the NAM not sometimes too overamped? And is there any theory to be old story that the 18z GFS used to have a SE bias? Yes, I'm pretty sure the NAM bias is amped & wet, and the GFS bias is SE/paltry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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