Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Even Ferrier is 4-6 inches across N VA into DC That's actually really impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 3k NAM is either stalling the coastal or having some feedback issues. Looks impressive either way lol. it basically phases or partially phases off the coast of virginia with that upper level energy diving down on the backside as opposed to some of the other solutions that want to try to do that either further up the coast or not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3/25/14- 1.7” on .29” liquid at DCA and 3.8” on .41” liquid at IAD. Happened entirely during daytime hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, supernovasky said: well now. This forum is like a train wreck. It is impossible to look away. This map is very very pretty. How does the 3K show the evolution of the storm? Is it a secondary Low off the coast? And is this even possible when everyone says its not going north of Baltimore (unless it redevelops off of Ocean City on Tuesday and heads to the NE, thus screwing the DC area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, gymengineer said: 3/25/14- 1.7” on .29” liquid at DCA and 3.8” on .41” liquid at IAD. Happened entirely during daytime hours. Just ask @PrinceFrederickWx about the April 8th or 9th 2016 event he had. He picked up something like 1.5" of snow during daytime hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: 3/25/14- 1.7” on .29” liquid at DCA and 3.8” on .41” liquid at IAD. Happened entirely during daytime hours. That run occurred very early in the AM, ended midday. Difference from dumping during peak hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: This forum is like a train wreck. It is impossible not to look away. This map is very very pretty. How does the 3K show the evolution of the storm? Is it a secondary Low off the coast? And is this even possible when everyone says its not going north of Baltimore (unless it redevelops off of Ocean City on Tuesday and heads to the NE, thus screwing the DC area). The 3k basically develops it off OBX and nearly bombs this system out. It also moves slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 20 minutes ago, packfan98 said: I've never seen the 12km and 3km look so different. I would lean towards the hi res 3km most of the time. Pretty clown maps to salivate over at least: here's the 12km for comparison: Wow, that is crazy-looking! Caveats aside on the 10:1 ratio and all...it's like that entire section of heavy snow extending well northeastward from about southwest VA on the 3-km simply does not exist on the 12-km. Like a missing puzzle piece or something. I mean, it literally would fit right into that "void" on the 12-km! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, gymengineer said: 3/25/14- 1.7” on .29” liquid at DCA and 3.8” on .41” liquid at IAD. Happened entirely during daytime hours. I'm not sure why we have to do this every.single.year. I mean yea, it can totally suck and not accumulate in March. I AGREE. But that's not what the 3k showed. Blanket statements that have been proven false over and over again get on my nerves. If it's light snow during the day in March it usually doesn't work. We can all agree on that. But there are dozens of historical events that proven the blanket statement false. The truth will set you free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The cool thing about the 3km is that it closes off near Delmarva instead of way out in the Atlantic Ocean that has got to help imo. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtylerb Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I have been ready to pull my hair out with this storm. I am the Chief Meteorologist at WOAY located in Oak Hill, WV. WE cover the southeastern counties of West Virginia and I have never in my life seen such a difference. I know agreement is coming in better but still lots of "who knows" still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It accumulated well because it dumped from the eve into the overnight. Is it still possible timing of snow could be more towards Mon evening bringing better accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Hate to jump into the sun angle argument but in my experience here in March and before when I lived in Boston - if the rates are approaching 0.5-1" per hour it will accumulate in March so long as the temp is close to 32 degrees. Lighter than that and it's often not enough to keep up with melting. Verbatim, that 3k run would accumulate just fine on non-paved surfaces and if rates jump up to >1"/hr it would also accumulate on the roads. And by those rates I mean rates of ideal accumulation assuming BL comfortably below 32 and without solar radiation. Now we need to see if other models provide support for this solution or if it's just a fantasy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure why we have to do this every.single.year. I mean yea, it can totally suck and not accumulate in March. I AGREE. But that's not what the 3k showed. Blanket statements that have been proven false over and over again get on my nerves. If it's light snow during the day in March it usually doesn't work. We can all agree on that. But there are dozens of historical events that proven the blanket statement false. The truth will set you free. You know better. I know better. The majority of the people on this forum know better. That's all that matters. No point in wasting a headache on this. On to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure why we have to do this every.single.year. I mean yea, it can totally suck and not accumulate in March. I AGREE. But that's not what the 3k showed. Blanket statements that have been proven false over and over again get on my nerves. If it's light snow during the day in March it usually doesn't work. We can all agree on that. But there are dozens of historical events that proven the blanket statement false. The truth will set you free. These are NOT blanket statements! They are concerns. Real ones. Notice your statement...historical events. Right and perfect conditions, perfect setup. It doesn’t happen too often this late in the season. Not much at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, wxtylerb said: I have been ready to pull my hair out with this storm. I am the Chief Meteorologist at WOAY located in Oak Hill, WV. WE cover the southeastern counties of West Virginia and I have never in my life seen such a difference. I know agreement is coming in better but still lots of "who knows" still. It's crazy. I've been following this stuff for a while and I'm sure there have been other cases, but I can't remember it being this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: That run occurred very early in the AM, ended midday. Difference from dumping during peak hours. There were two 3/25 storms, in 2013 and 2014. Where I'm at, the 3/25/2013 was early morning (pre-dawn) and continued through much of the morning, in fact I recall it even ended as some light rain. Around 4" fell at my location from that through mid-morning. In 2014, it snowed in the early morning at a good clip, then a bit of a lull, then we got another nice round late afternoon into early evening. I got around 3" from that event. ETA: Hope you don't interpret my comment as disagreement, just stating what happened on the suburban NW side of DC. And much of that snow did occur at the non-peak daylight times, to be sure. I certainly get what you're saying, and short of us having extremely cold air in place, we'll need good rates to accumulate if much of this event occurs mid-day (that is, IF it occurs, of course!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Is it still possible timing of snow could be more towards Mon evening bringing better accumulations? I’m sure their are many more details to work out with this. Timing is certainly one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The 3k Nam is a damn woody popper for southern and central VA and the beginnings of something tasty for the Mid Atlantic guys. Let’s hope to the runs continuing to get better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Ahh, i see the 18z NAM. I think it has figured out the position kinks, this could be a big one for Mid-Atlantic subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Using Kuchera, during the heaviest rate of precip for DC, ratios are nearing 7:1 or 8:1. Does this seem a bit high to anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 18z ICON is a miss but nudged north and west again from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Any chance the “will it stick in March” discussion be taken elsewhere? It’s beating a dead horse at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Using Kuchera, during the heaviest rate of precip for DC, ratios are nearing 7:1 or 8:1. Does this seem a bit high to anyone? Not with the 3K look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 17 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: This forum is like a train wreck. It is impossible not to look away. This map is very very pretty. How does the 3K show the evolution of the storm? Is it a secondary Low off the coast? And is this even possible when everyone says its not going north of Baltimore (unless it redevelops off of Ocean City on Tuesday and heads to the NE, thus screwing the DC area). Knowledgeable folks talking about models for what they are. Not a train wreck at all. We all have choices if you don’t like what you read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 it's interesting that the storm got delayed like this and that may have played a big role in these late trends. helps to relax that 50/50 low and also allows the GL vort to play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Knowledgeable folks talking about models for what they are. Not a train wreck at all. We all have choices if you don’t like what you read. I meant it as an addiction- I can't step away from the forum! I absolutely choose to read every single comment and love every bit of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You know better. I know better. The majority of the people on this forum know better. That's all that matters. No point in wasting a headache on this. On to the GFS! Great comeback 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You know better. I know better. The majority of the people on this forum know better. That's all that matters. No point in wasting a headache on this. On to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: it's interesting that the storm got delayed like this and that may have played a big role in these late trends. helps to relax that 50/50 low and also allows the GL vort to play catch up. I said that the other day...delayed=more time for a possible phase, the 50/50 kicker to move out more and the storm to gain latitude. This went from a Sunday late afternoon to overnight event to Monday morning to Monday night at the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Great comeback It was ok. I save my best for when I really need it. That wasn't one of those times. No need for a nuke to kill an ant when a simple shoe will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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