Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: You’re right. It looks good. It’s a legit hit. Not sure what he’s seeing. I mean yea, if the rates suck it's not going to work but criticizing the run as is is a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 just some slight differences between 0z and 18z. nothing to see here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031018&fh=42 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031000&fh=60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That’s 12z sir I know. I had a hard time fitting the 18z on the same reply. So here it is. What a difference 6 hours have made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3km NAM is just a solid nonstop moderate to heavy snow storm. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look at the soundings dude. I don't know what else to say if you don't think that looks good It is not going to matter what the sounding shows. Snow falling in the middle of the day in mid March is going to be a problem for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Snows from 12z Monday to 6z Tuesday & still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: It is not going to matter what the sounding shows. Snow falling in the middle of the day in mid March is going to be a problem for accumulations. Did you not live here in 14 and 15? I'm not comparing this storm to those but your blanket statement has been proven false many times in the past. I didn't say it was a 15:1 fluff bomb but if the 3k nam happened it would be a legit accum event. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I mean yea, if the rates suck it's not going to work but criticizing the run as is is a fail. we need a storm first, then we can worry about temps. the nam (from what i've read here) has a tendency to, well, "nam", but it's certainly a nice step. hopefully the globals keep this trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 @Bob Chill or any other experienced members: Have you ever seen the regular and hi-res nam differ so much in a model run? Usually the hi-res will differ some in the surface depiction with precip maxes and such, but it seem this run has low in a totally different place. Seems a little odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Did you not live here in 14 and 15? I'm not comparing this storm to those but your blanket statement has been proven false many times in the past. I didn't say it was a 15:1 fluff bomb but if the 3k nam happened it would be a legit accum event. Period. Yup! St. Patrick's Day storm was around 7-10 inches in Fairfax County if I remember correctly. It was beautiful! Didn't stick around long, but accumulated quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I mean yea, if the rates suck it's not going to work but criticizing the run as is is a fail. The run looks beautiful Bob. Gorgeous run, but it’s mid March. I’ve worked dozens of events like this, some with moderate to heavy rates all day, and it was tough to accumulate. It just is. We know the complexities. Urban centers especially. Offices are likely to stay pretty conservative for these reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Did you not live here in 14 and 15? I'm not comparing this storm to those but your blanket statement has been proven false many times in the past. I didn't say it was a 15:1 fluff bomb but if the 3k nam happened it would be a legit accum event. Period. You’ll be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 That's the real deal dude. Dying ull in the tn valley with a tight tracking coastal like the 3k has and it's money here. I don't care verbatim. First run I've seen that made complete sense about how to get a good hit. It's not strung out and disjointed. It's EXACTLY how this type of hybrid storm can work here. How is 3k as a long range model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Did you not live here in 14 and 15? I'm not comparing this storm to those but your blanket statement has been proven false many times in the past. I didn't say it was a 15:1 fluff bomb but if the 3k nam happened it would be a legit accum event. Period. Absolutely. We’ve dispelled this myth that snow won’t accumulate during the day in mid March plenty of times here. Even into late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It is not going to matter what the sounding shows. Snow falling in the middle of the day in mid March is going to be a problem for accumulations. One positive as compared to most March snow storms is that we arent toasty hot ahead of it. Mid 40's isnt like the normal March storm where it was 70 degrees the day before. The ground shouldnt be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, packfan98 said: @Bob Chill or any other experienced members: Have you ever seen the regular and hi-res nam differ so much in a model run? Usually the hi-res will differ some in the surface depiction with precip maxes and such, but it seem this run has low in a totally different place. Seems a little odd to me. Yea, they diverge often. Especially with larger events 48 hours in time. 3k nam has proven superior multiple times. They both might be totally wrong but picking between the 2 is easy. Even if they were reversed I would believe the 3k over the 12k any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Yup! St. Patrick's Day storm was around 7-10 inches in Fairfax County if I remember correctly. It was beautiful! Didn't stick around long, but accumulated quite well. It accumulated well because it dumped from the eve into the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, packfan98 said: @Bob Chill or any other experienced members: Have you ever seen the regular and hi-res nam differ so much in a model run? Usually the hi-res will differ some in the surface depiction with precip maxes and such, but it seem this run has low in a totally different place. Seems a little odd to me. No. And I have never seen the 12K and 3K so different in the same run. If nothing else this storm takes the cake on model wars. Well. Bob just put me in my place on this post :)....Of course I have already started cracking beers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: You’ll be disappointed I won't be because my expectations have been zero for over 3 days. If the 3k nam is only half right I'll be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: One positive as compared to most March snow storms is that we arent toasty hot ahead of it. Mid 40's isnt like the normal March storm where it was 70 degrees the day before. The ground shouldnt be too warm. Timing may actually not be too bad on the NAM. Temps barely hit mid 30s before precip rolls in if the 3k NAM is to be believed we wouldn't be 53/20 like people were in Snowquester the afternoon before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: The run looks beautiful Bob. Gorgeous run, but it’s mid March. I’ve worked dozens of events like this, some with moderate to heavy rates all day, and it was tough to accumulate. It just is. We know the complexities. Urban centers especially. Offices are likely to stay pretty conservative for these reasons. Can it improve further from a thermal point of view , ie., colder at the surface, or is that unlikely? I imagine with colder surface temps it would stick in the day given adequate rates, but I see your point of view, and Bob's as well. Very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 the temps leading into this event aren't horrible either, so i think that could help with accumulations. road stickage is always difficult so i'm not even thinking about that, but grass/sidewalks/parking lots...those are fair game if we get decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I won't be because my expectations have been zero for over 3 days. If the 3k nam is only half right I'll be thrilled. Well let’s hope we can score one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, they diverge often. Especially with larger events 48 hours in time. 3k nam has proven superior multiple times. They both might be totally wrong but picking between the 2 is easy. Even if they were reversed I would believe the 3k over the 12k any day. Thanks. I'm like you and trust the 3k over the 12k. Let's see what happens with the RGEM over the next couple of runs. Usually a combo of the 3k nam and RGEM is the most accurate guesses that we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You’re right. It looks good. It’s a legit hit. Not sure what he’s seeing. Reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Even Ferrier is 4-6 inches across N VA into DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Reality Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, frd said: Can it improve further from a thermal point of view , ie., colder at the surface, or is that unlikely? I imagine with colder surface temps it would stick in the day given adequate rates, but I see your point of view, and Bob's as well. Very interesting Many times in March the warmth is VERY shallow. Radiation warms the boundary layer to 50+ easy and it can be below freezing just 2k off the deck. Heavy rates + evap cooling can bring down the cold no problem. We've seen it countless times. With that being said, I highly doubt anywhere other than elevation and NW is below freezing during the day. 3k starts shortly after sunrise and temps never climb. Overnight is obviously preferred but the 3k scenario is the next best thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 well now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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