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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


stormtracker

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I think the biggest takeaway from the EPS is that it suggests a later start. Snow mean takes longer to increase, and longer to decrease (I mean the 24 hour snow increase mean on the EPS). I can post a picture in a bit, but I'm assuming a later start is a good thing, right?


.

Hrm...seeing as we've been talking about timing and needing things to phase...maybe it is? Thoughts on this  anyone?

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All the out to seas still appear to be following the course that the strong high pressure to the west is pushing the storm eastward. We don't see that most of the time around here, the high needs to be to the nw-n and pushing down and forcing east/ese as suppressive 

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48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:
Irregardless of what the models are showing at any given time I am of the opinion that worst case this gets far enough north to impact at least DC with couple/several inches of snow. The general overall look argues for it in my opinion. The question in my mind is if we can get this to hit on most if not all cylinders to bring this baby farther north with far more substantial snows and as to that I have no clue.

Posted in my home forum, but this looks more of a "when does ULL influence happen and when does it turn the corner" look rather than a clean miss to yours or my South attm.

I agree. Would put money on that I think. My question is where does the transfer to the coastal occur and how far out ahead does it occur from the upper level support. All this means a world of difference on possible impacts for on region on north. First off if it is too far south we are out of the game before it even starts. The surface low will race so far ahead of the upper level support that by the time the upper levels reach it it will be well out to sea. But at this point I don't buy the far southern solutions on some of the models in regards to the lows passage to our south. Think we will end up seeing that passage on the northern edge of guidance if not north thus why I think DC scores at least a little something. But this farther north passage also means we will most likely see the transfer occur farther north. At this point I am thinking from around OBX to Portsmouth which is a good location to see that occur for our region. But even that doesn't mean much if we see this transfer occur as rapidly as I have been seeing on some of the model runs because once again we see the surface low jumping significantly ahead of the upper levels. What we really need to see is the primary get to at the very least the western VA region before the transfer starts to occur. Thus the 500's can rapidly reacquire the surface low with minimal disruption to the intensification. The farther east that primary can come before that transfer the better our chances. 

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Dynamic Tropopause maps showing how the GFS lost it's low in TN Valley.

You can see it comes north with the Lower Tropopause (Higher Vorticity) every run, until it finally misses the 850mb warm nose (not shown) causing the surface low not to form. 

Also explains why it came north last night, it caught the northern tip of the warm nose despite being closer to missing it all together.

LoNaGtH.gif

 

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17 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We need a deeper coastal signal as far as intensity.

Ignore the mean intensity and look at the clustering of lows. Roughly 2/3'rds of the members are in the center or west of guidance in a a favorable if not great location. Believe me, if the 500's are somewhat accurate and that low is generally in that location you will most likely see your intensity.

 

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27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

EPS basically shifted the whole trough westward 50-75 miles and now has a strong closed upper level low dropping swiftly into the upper portion of the trough helping to turn the axis of the trough into a more favorable position for a possible coastal.

Agree but that's also a recipe for how Boxing Day and other similar swing hook around us storms can happen. I don't like seeing that possibility introduced. If that vort keeps trending west we will be ok. But if it dives in like the EPS shows or east at all it will shunt this under us then capture it and pull it up the coast to bomb the same places that have been getting rocked all winter. Just the thought of this ending that way is painful. 

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21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Ignore the mean intensity and look at the clustering of lows. Roughly 2/3'rds of the members are in the center or west of guidance in a a favorable if not great location. Believe me, if the 500's are somewhat accurate and that low is generally in that location you will most likely see your intensity.

 

Look at the western most members...they are legit tucked in bombs. It’s seeing the potential for a big one here. 

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34 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We need a deeper coastal signal as far as intensity.

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Ignore the mean intensity and look at the clustering of lows. Roughly 2/3'rds of the members are in the center or west of guidance in a a favorable if not great location. Believe me, if the 500's are somewhat accurate and that low is generally in that location you will most likely see your intensity.

 

Sorry BTR, I miss worded this. I should have said that roughly half of those 2/3 members are in a favorable if not a great location. Would also like to add that with so many members west of guidance it may mean that we will see an adjustment westward of that mean low in future runs which again puts it in a favorable spot for intensification. Normally I would say we are at the limits of the usefulness of the ensembles but with such divergence with the different models and within the models themselves they still may be a useful tool.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Sorry BTR, I miss worded this. I should have said that roughly half of those 2/3 members are in a favorable if not a great location. Would also like to add that with so many members west of guidance it may mean that we will see an adjustment westward of that mean low in future runs which again puts it in a favorable spot for intensification. Normally I would say we are at the limits of the usefulness of the ensembles but with such divergence with the different models and within the models themselves they still may be a useful tool.

Yea, the weakish low from the 850mb mean panels is obviously from a spread of outliers.  I should have known that all along.

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NAM doesn't just slide out to sea - it zooms out to sea.  Looks like the NS acts as the kicker.  That's how fragile this set-up is.  If the timing is off between the NS and southern stream, with the NS coming behind, it boots it.  If the NS comes first, it squashes it.  Need perfect timing for a capture.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

It's a mess.  It's going to slide out to sea to our south.  We can employ the weenie rule of saying it's the NAM past 48 hours

the NAM keeps separating the ULL and surface low so so much it gives me pause. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

the NAM keeps separating the ULL and surface low so so much it gives me pause. 

I think the fact that the globals aren’t locked in yet might explain why the nam is all over the place.  I’m much more interested in what the globals say until maybe tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a mess.  It's going to slide out to sea to our south.  We can employ the weenie rule of saying it's the NAM past 48 hours

The 3K doesn't exactly having me do hand flips either. All I can say about both is just look at how much the surface and 500's is dancing around. Should give you a hint how much weight you should put on them at this time.

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