Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 the 12k NAM is so painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Damn. 3k is legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just ignore the 12k. 3k is all anyone should look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Yep, the 3K NAM builds some ridging ahead of the 500 vort that the 12K doesn't, which strengthens the southerly flow at 700 and gets us in WAA precip. Seems to be a very delicate development dependent on exactly where convection sets up - mesoscale boundaries across the TN valley will be important in the next 24-36 hours IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:42 PM, stormtracker said: Damn. 3k is legit Expand Yes sir. I saw it first. Give me that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Heights out ahead on the 3k are higher than previous run. 500mb jet streak pattern is better over WV and VA than the 12km, so the precip field is more expansive toward MD. Vort in Tennessee is stronger as well a bit further west. Very interesting so far. Edit: Ninja'd by multiple people lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:42 PM, stormtracker said: Damn. 3k is legit Expand That's the real deal dude. Dying ull in the tn valley with a tight tracking coastal like the 3k has and it's money here. I don't care verbatim. First run I've seen that made complete sense about how to get a good hit. It's not strung out and disjointed. It's EXACTLY how this type of hybrid storm can work here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Wow. 3k NAM went from fringing Richmond to a nice DC hit in 1 run. Quite the shift, very appropriate with this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The thing about the 3k that is so cool is it's all congealed meaning the WAA pump loads the atmosphere and the developing coastal wrings it right out. There's no lull or pause. Classic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:36 PM, BristowWx said: On the surface it doesn’t Expand Yeah. I saw how positively tilted it was and thought not good. Then I looked at the surface. It looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:45 PM, Bob Chill said: The thing about the 3k that is so cool is it's all congealed meaning the WAA pump loads the atmosphere and the developing coastal wrings it right out. There's no lull or pause. Classic evolution. Expand Is the 3K a good model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Verbatim 3k NAM would be a good hit for DC. Steady/near heavy precip with temps at 33 degrees. Probably a bit iffy in the city, but that's a great look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I've never seen the 12km and 3km look so different. I would lean towards the hi res 3km most of the time. Pretty clown maps to salivate over at least: here's the 12km for comparison: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:45 PM, Bob Chill said: The thing about the 3k that is so cool is it's all congealed meaning the WAA pump loads the atmosphere and the developing coastal wrings it right out. There's no lull or pause. Classic evolution. Expand H5 evolution was pretty promising looking by hour 39. That ridging out in front was huge IMO. A really nice step forward to getting a good result. Neutral tilt right at our longitude too. Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:27 PM, stormtracker said: H5 is improved for sure. Prob will still miss. But if we can get these little improvements with each run Expand Wish I had your optimism. I do think things keep trending nw but only so many runs left and we're not as close as some people think on any guidance besides the gfs because all that light qpf on the nw side isn't going to cut it. The back edge of any accumulations will be the .3-.5 qpf line not .1. And even there .5 might be 1-3" of slop. The area that gets into the .75 + qpf is where there might be any appreciable accumulation. My guess is this bleeds north but that heavy band just can't get in here. Most end up with a slushy 1"'or two and we watch the usual suspects the last 2 years get death banded and 6-12". I hope I'm wrong. That's what this feels like to me. But I'm stubborn and stupid so I'll track it to the end and probably get excited when it throws us that one op run we know is coming that dumps a foot on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:45 PM, Bob Chill said: The thing about the 3k that is so cool is it's all congealed meaning the WAA pump loads the atmosphere and the developing coastal wrings it right out. There's no lull or pause. Classic evolution. Expand But temps and time of day are not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:48 PM, MillvilleWx said: H5 evolution was pretty promising looking by hour 39. That ridging out in front was huge IMO. A really nice step forward to getting a good result. Neutral tilt right at our longitude too. Not too shabby Expand Dude, check out this sounding....that's a straight up mid day in March pasting. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:49 PM, ers-wxman1 said: But temps and time of day are not good. Expand Temps aren't a torcher on the 3k NAM. Looks like it hugs 33/34 degrees. And plus it looks like it extends into the night ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:49 PM, ers-wxman1 said: But temps and time of day are not good. Expand Look at the soundings dude. I don't know what else to say if you don't think that looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:50 PM, Wonderdog said: Expand That’s 12z sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:44 PM, Bob Chill said: That's the real deal dude. Dying ull in the tn valley with a tight tracking coastal like the 3k has and it's money here. I don't care verbatim. First run I've seen that made complete sense about how to get a good hit. It's not strung out and disjointed. It's EXACTLY how this type of hybrid storm can work here. Expand Yep. It kind of looks like the good GFS runs from a couple of days ago. Track into TN/KY and transfer to the Carolina's is good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Wish the timing was different. Coming in Monday eve into the overnight would be ideal. 3k is beautiful but much of this will be white rain during the day hours especially for the cities. No way it’s going to overcome typical March issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:51 PM, Bob Chill said: Look at the soundings dude. I don't know what else to say if you don't think that looks good Expand You’re right. It looks good. It’s a legit hit. Not sure what he’s seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:51 PM, ers-wxman1 said: Wish the timing was different. Coming in Monday eve into the overnight. 3k is beautiful but much of this will be white rain especially for the cities. No way it’s going to overcome typical March issues. Expand Course. It will suck for urban confines & DCA. I bet you if the 3k solution were to play out DCA would record less than an inch while IAD records 6"+ Also, it extends into the night hours either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3k NAM is either stalling the coastal or having some feedback issues. Looks impressive either way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:50 PM, Bob Chill said: Dude, check out this sounding....that's a straight up mid day in March pasting. Boom Expand Not too shabby. I don't even care if that's road stickage or not. That would be awfully pretty to watch fall. Heavy enough rates would induce stickage obviously. I just want to watch snow fall one last time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 On 3/10/2018 at 8:48 PM, psuhoffman said: Wish I had your optimism. I do think things keep trending nw but only so many runs left and we're not as close as some people think on any guidance besides the gfs because all that light qpf on the nw side isn't going to cut it. The back edge of any accumulations will be the .3-.5 qpf line not .1. And even there .5 might be 1-3" of slop. The area that gets into the .75 + qpf is where there might be any appreciable accumulation. My guess is this bleeds north but that heavy band just can't get in here. Most end up with a slushy 1"'or two and we watch the usual suspects the last 2 years get death banded and 6-12". I hope I'm wrong. That's what this feels like to me. But I'm stubborn and stupid so I'll track it to the end and probably get excited when it throws us that one op run we know is coming that dumps a foot on us. Expand The nice thing is, the storm may not do what any of the models are spitting out. Weather will do whatever it wants to do. So, maybe we will get the ultimate snow hole, or maybe we will get lucky. At this point, the storm is still alive...so there is always some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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