cae Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good consensus for tracks that are way east of us...thanks for posting No problem. The good news it that they're all better than they were at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM has a closed 500 in western TN at 36. Very similar to the GFS location. It’s better stronger and further SW than 12z...is that a fair statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM has a closed 500 in western TN at 36. Very similar to the GFS location. If not even a little closer to the coast at that time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 One thing to keep in mind the models are way more expansive with the qpf now. Some of the runs that get precip in are even east of runs that didn't. That was expected. But now that they made that correction we need an actual northwest track adjustment and can't rely on the qpf expanding much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 looks like the phase will still miss us. It’s close, but energy from Canada is still late getting to the game at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looks warmer through 42 and not as organized compared to 12z NAM. Hope it progresses differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 H5 is improved for sure. Prob will still miss. But if we can get these little improvements with each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: One thing to keep in mind the models are way more expansive with the qpf now. Some of the runs that get precip in are even east of runs that didn't. That was expected. But now that they made that correction we need an actual northwest track adjustment and can't rely on the qpf expanding much more. I also like the low is developing off the Carolina coast and not ocean city lol. I also like that there’s an upper level piece digging in behind it hence the precip into sw Virginia. This could still screw us but it’s not the typical miller B that is so legendary for busts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Bottom line is that NAM improvements are still to be made? And I'm liking the look on the GEFS ensembles they have definitely shifted west the past few runs, as is with the EPS ensembles.. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s better stronger and further SW than 12z...is that a fair statement? It is better than 12Z for sure. Still a miss but better. Especially at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 We need the GL energy to dive more behind and bring the thing up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Also i think the NWS is probably gonna issue winter watches/warnings for eastern VA and MD, Delaware soon? One could make that assumption based on the west trends of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It is better than 12Z for sure. Still a miss but better. Especially at the surface. The 3k looks different. Not sure good or bad but has the look of 4 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: Also i think the NWS is probably gonna issue winter watches/warnings for eastern VA and MD, Delaware soon? One could make that assumption based on the west trends of the models. I would guess after 0z tonight if there’s another west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: Also i think the NWS is probably gonna issue winter watches/warnings for eastern VA and MD, Delaware soon? One could make that assumption based on the west trends of the models. Nope. There will be no call on that until tomorrow at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: Also i think the NWS is probably gonna issue winter watches/warnings for eastern VA and MD, Delaware soon? One could make that assumption based on the west trends of the models. I don’t think so until tomorrow. Just my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: I also like the low is developing off the Carolina coast and not ocean city lol. I also like that there’s an upper level piece digging in behind it hence the precip into sw Virginia. This could still screw us but it’s not the typical miller B that is so legendary for busts here. Yeah that low developing off of OC doesn't usually end well...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Nope. There will be no call on that until tomorrow at the earliest. Have a feeling they'll wait until 18z or 0z runs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The 3k looks different. Not sure good or bad but has the look of 4 days ago I think the 3k looks just the 12k at H34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I think the 3k looks just the 12k at H34 On the surface it doesn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I do remember DT wxrisk saying something about a "rex block" which would only allow so much NW shifts on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: On the surface it doesn’t Surface looks comparable to 12z GFS imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Also i think the NWS is probably gonna issue winter watches/warnings for eastern VA and MD, Delaware soon? One could make that assumption based on the west trends of the models. Eh. I’m not so sure. If they do they’ll wait until the morning probably at the earliest...marginal temps still remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: On the surface it doesn’t Oh I am just looking at the H5 panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Surface looks comparable to 12z GFS imo Yes..but it doesn’t look like the 12k NAM. I could be wrong but it doesn’t to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: I do remember DT wxrisk saying something about a "rex block" which would only allow so much NW shifts on the models. yes he mentions that on every update gets kinda of tiresome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3k looks good to me. ULL in the TN valley dying off and coastal tucked close with strong WAA in between. Show me a satellite like this in real time and I'm 100% it works here in some fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Oh I am just looking at the H5 panels Probably best to do that but it does look different at the surface. Just an ob on my part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Looks pretty decent on 3k NAM, at least on surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3k NAM looks close to a flush hit. Maybe off, but it has some decent precip getting into the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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