BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GEFS are closer to the coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Back to the .5"+ qpf blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: GEFS are closer to the coast again. Man what 50 miles could do. We did buy more time so that’s good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Man if that western cluster is right, I would think the Low would have to have passed damn close to our benchmark for a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 good to see something of value from the GFS Not a terrible look for a DC snowstorm from this point of view... until you see the snowfall map, the DC area misses the heaviest of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: good to see something of value from the GFS Not a terrible look for a DC snowstorm from this point of view... until you see the snowfall map, the DC area misses the heaviest of the snow. not by much and still 36 hours of runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12z GEFS. This is a HUGE improvement from 6z, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z GEFS. This is a HUGE improvement from 6z, FWIW. Probably some group think, but that's damn impressive this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z GEFS. This is a HUGE improvement from 6z, FWIW. Mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Mean? Last stamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Probably some group think, but that's damn impressive this close in 4 or 5 total misses depending on where you are, so about 25% chance. That is a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Mean? It’s the last image - 5.5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Seems like WPC still heavily favors the "north and west trend" as they put it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Seems like WPC still heavily favors the "north and west trend" as they put it When was that issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I'm not trying to be Debbie downer with the GEFS, but it's worthless. It just follows the OP to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, T. August said: 4 or 5 total misses depending on where you are, so about 25% chance. That is a bit concerning. We're inside of usefulness of the ensembles. There will be little if any spread. If the op shifts at 18z then so will the ensembles. Just stick with op runs now. Ensembles are best for 72-96+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z GEFS. This is a HUGE improvement from 6z, FWIW. Wow, 12/22 get the 6 inch line at, or very close to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: When was that issued? dunno, but it says 72 hours at the top, and goes to 12z Tuesday, so I'm assuming it was issued at 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 i think models can still bust. jan 00 and march 01 are probably the most notorious ones in both directions. technology has significantly improved, but it could be that advanced models are still subject to busts in complicated setups, like this one appears to be. not really saying that we're going to get a jan 00, but this could be one of those scenarios where some big late game adjustments happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're inside of usefulness of the ensembles. There will be little if any spread. If the op shifts at 18z then so will the ensembles. Just stick with op runs now. Ensembles are best for 72-96+ hours. I agree, but don’t you think they should be showing almost an identical solution to the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, T. August said: I agree, but don’t you think if they should be showing almost an identical solution to the OP? I'll favor ensembles considering the high variability still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're inside of usefulness of the ensembles. There will be little if any spread. If the op shifts at 18z then so will the ensembles. Just stick with op runs now. Ensembles are best for 72-96+ hours. They aren't to be used as the main guidance anymore but I still find some use. The gefs are north of the op. To me that does indicate some room to adjust north. Some very amped solutions in there. They can still point to if the op was on the south or north side of the envelope. Once inside 36 hours they become pretty useless but even at this range they have sometimes picked up hiccups in the op run. But their usefulness is different now then at day 5 for sure. But I do find the gefs having so many amped north solutions to be a good sign things could improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Wow, 12/22 get the 6 inch line at, or very close to DC. I like the cluster of lows to the west of the mean, the >50% that get 6” to DC (10:1 yadda yadda), and the more amped solutions than the OP. It tells me that there may be more room for adjustments to a better OP solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: i think models can still bust. jan 00 and march 01 are probably the most notorious ones in both directions. technology has significantly improved, but it could be that advanced models are still subject to busts in complicated setups, like this one appears to be. not really saying that we're going to get a jan 00, but this could be one of those scenarios where some big late game adjustments happen. Agreed! Lots of moving parts here. On the flip side, this could also end up being big for many . I am hoping this storm takes on some Miller A features. Dips south enough to tap more GOM moisture and rides up the coast. Right now it’s a transfer to the coast on GFS but 12 NAM looked liked it had more Miller A features based off my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They aren't to be used as the main guidance anymore but I still find some use. The gefs are north of the op. To me that does indicate some room to adjust north. Some very amped solutions in there. They can still point to if the op was on the south or north side of the envelope. Once inside 36 hours they become pretty useless but even at this range they have sometimes picked up hiccups in the op run. But their usefulness is different now then at day 5 for sure. But I do find the gefs having so many amped north solutions to be a good sign things could improve. I don't disagree with the premise but those amped/north solutions are probably more of a byproduct of an amped/north op and/or control run than an expression of increased probability. If 18z comes in flat and disjointed then it's going to be a wholesale shift with the ensembles. I know you know this and I think we're on the same page but the short story is we both could have predicted that the GEFS is going to look really sweet based on the op run before the panels came out. What will you think if the euro makes no appreciable change from the 0z solution? We both know the EPS will also show low probability of a good hit too...then what? I would just blend the 2 ops and say the most likely outcome is somewhere in between. Now if the euro op makes a sig shift towards a gfs solution then it's probably game on for at least a portion of the sub... Tricky storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Seems like WPC still heavily favors the "north and west trend" as they put it These probabilities were generated off the overnight runs (internal WPC snowfall used as the "mode") -- which are updated with the 06Z ensemble guidance and 00Z EPS by 13-14Z. The new probs, based on the 12Z deterministic guidance, will be out by 20Z, then the "updated" probs out once again by 02Z (based on the 18Z SREF/GEFS and 12Z EPS). The probs are constantly getting "tweaked" with the latest ensemble members, even though the "mode" is only updated twice daily, based on the 00Z and 12Z model cycles. Confusing yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Believe me as I have said for days This is not a suppressive set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 RGEM ensemble. The first is the mean qpf as snow for hours 24-72. The next two are the number of ensemble members showing at least 5 mm qpf (about 2" of snow assuming 10:1) and 15 mm qpf (about 6" of snow assuming 10:1). These are for 48-72 hours, so they don't represent the storm total for southern areas. I think these are reasonable estimates of our chances for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: These probabilities were generated off the overnight runs (internal WPC snowfall used as the "mode") -- which are updated with the 06Z ensemble guidance and 00Z EPS by 13-14Z. The new probs, based on the 12Z deterministic guidance, will be out by 20Z, then the "updated" probs out once again by 02Z (based on the 18Z SREF/GEFS and 12Z EPS). The probs are constantly getting "tweaked" with the latest ensemble members, even though the "mode" is only updated twice daily, based on the 00Z and 12Z model cycles. Confusing yet? Very much so, but thanks a ton for clearing this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, 87storms said: i think models can still bust. jan 00 and march 01 are probably the most notorious ones in both directions. technology has significantly improved, but it could be that advanced models are still subject to busts in complicated setups, like this one appears to be. not really saying that we're going to get a jan 00, but this could be one of those scenarios where some big late game adjustments happen. Once the storm in getting organized and models are initialized with real time info then models should probably do fairly well with track and intensity at our latitude. North of us is still subject to cascading math errors but once things are rolling in the SE, our fate will be largely determined. I strongly believe that a Jan 2000 type of bust is very unlikely to occur ever again. Going from nothing at all to all in in under 24 hours is probably a thing of the past. Jan 2000 was literally a complete whiff for the entire State within 24 hours IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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