Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Tuck that storm 75 miles to the west and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I'm just glad we're out of the major changes time period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: Just a little. Honestly at first glance it reminds me of Boxing day 2010. Big storm for central VA, lighter snow for us, then it intensifies just in time to nail Philly north. At least on this GFS run. The 500 maps are a bit different tho. I think what we have going for us is that NS. I think Boxing Day was mostly just a poorly aligned nor’easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Tuck that storm 75 miles to the west and we're in business. Just a slight improvement for us w-dog in W PWC...if this hits drinks on me at the town center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Bristow, based on the precip map, we're close to a warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Kind of odd the way it jumps the energy from the TN/KY border to the coast in southern SC. I would think it would be a little north of that. It is also a little strung out when it makes the jump. This still has room to come further north I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Just a slight improvement for us w-dog in W PWC...if this hits drinks on me at the town center Crown, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: Bristow, based on the precip map, we're close to a warning level event. Ok drinks and appetizers then...yes close..I’m not as skeptical because this is like a totally new set up with new timelines and h5 when compared to earlier in the week...the other was good but that ship has sailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 GFS likes to to place the "L" on whatever convection it see in the ATL. If you read between the lines, the trough orientation really helps this thing pull almost due north from OBX. I agree...look like it has the room to come further N/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Is it possible for this still shift north? I remember someone saying a while ago that it the central VA bullseye won’t verify and it will probably shift north. Or is it too late for that? I mean, we already saw a big shift again so I think anything is possible with this roller coaster of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Kind of odd the way it jumps the energy from the TN/KY border to the coast in southern SC. I would think it would be a little north of that. It is also a little strung out when it makes the jump. This still has room to come further north I think. I noticed that too. It makes a hell of a jump from KY to off SC. Gotta think it wouldn’t verify as strange as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 CMC looking juicier through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Remebmer when this was supposed to start Sunday. Now we are looking at Monday. A full 24 hour delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 this storm could have big ticket potential if the stars align. looks like the gfs hangs back some of that southern stream energy until the NS catches up. i think we then want that GL energy to be as far west and south as possible (and probably sooner than later)... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018031012&fh=60 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031012&fh=60 also, this has turned into a monday storm, with maybe monday afternoon/evening being the fun stuff (if the gfs is right and if it trends better). still gotta favor the northeast, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Remebmer when this was supposed to start Sunday. Now we are looking at Monday. A full 24 hour delay Its not really a delay. We are using predictive models. The margin for error on the simplest of setups 5 days out is probably +/- 12 hours. This setup is very complex. lots of moving parts. So 24 hours is just a function of normal margin here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, Interstate said: Remebmer when this was supposed to start Sunday. Now we are looking at Monday. A full 24 hour delay This is a completely different H5 setup than what we were originally looking at. You can’t even compare the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I kind of like that strong push out of the SW at the end of this loop for moving our system more north than east http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Canadian is a miss but not by a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: The Roof is going to come off this blog if Dr. No turns us a favor at 1:30. If the Ukie and Euro make a trend toward the GFS we will definitely be back in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: If the Ukie and Euro make a trend toward the GFS we will definitely be back in business. I thought the UKIE still had something for us last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 UKMET east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: I thought the UKIE still had something for us last night. It was close to being good last night. But its been jumpy too so I'm hoping to see it hold or get a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, snowdude said: UKMET east. I have yet to see it have two similar solutions in back to back runs for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowdude said: UKMET east. Still pretty close at a 3 day lead. A 50-100 adjustment in our favor would be a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Still pretty close at a 3 day lead. A 50-100 adjustment in our favor would be a big storm. SnowGoose in the NY forum says it has an east bias with strong coastal lows so perhaps we can cling our hopes to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The UKMET is figuring out the final kinks before it corrects west. Hope it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: SnowGoose in the NY forum says it has an east bias with strong coastal lows so perhaps we can cling our hopes to that. Anything sub 980-985 or rapidly bombing it’s usually east. Even inside 24 hours I’ve seen it be 40-50 miles too east so at this range even more so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 JMA get DCA into > 0.5 qpf but has the screw zone pointed right at us. Still nice to see another global make the shift towards a just-in-time phase with the GL vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: SnowGoose in the NY forum says it has an east bias with strong coastal lows so perhaps we can cling our hopes to that. I'm clinging to that. But biases aside. Standard margin of error would argue we could be in the game. I think people who jumped the ship should get a pass to get back on board. We are looking at different storm altogether at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: JMA get DCA into > 0.5 qpf but has the screw zone pointed right at us. Still nice to see another global make the shift towards a just-in-time phase with the GL vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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