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March 11-12 Storm - Model Discussion STORM MODE


stormtracker

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21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh man...NAM is excruciatingly close to something nice

It's not as close as the precip maps look most of that stuff near us is snow tv. It does hook the good stuff back into New England though so that's good. 

The trends are encouraging but the way this is going is a typical fail setup for us now. 

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

@cae

No because the upper energy is being stretched and suppressed by the next northern system diving in on top. 

This new evolution is fools gold for us.  Out ticket was the NS vort diving in from the NW. That gets sheared apart and suppressed. The one diving in right on top of us can't work. It would have to come down west of Michigan to pull that off. Not enough time for that kind of adjustment imo. Our only hope is to get the first vort to trend stronger and get it in front of the northern stream diving in on top. Get that captured and tugged North.  If the first system goes out then a new miller b pops from the next vort we have no chance. That will be for New England. Maybe New Jersey. 

But even if my first scenario happens that's how Boxing Day happened. The system would still probably slide east too far before turning. We would still be a long shot.  Our only shot is getting that vort stronger and a low up into KY so everything ends up transferring to the va capes. Otherwise we need  some 1 in 100 year type capture and pull back scenario again.

this whole new setup sucks for us now. It looked good when that first vort was the one. Good angle of approach. Good ridge trough axis. But that vort diving down is on top of US. Way too far east to do us any good. It's evolving towards another miller b screw job imo. 

Yeah. I referenced Boxing Day earlier but it got culled - I wasn’t trolling. These runs remind me of that so much. 

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Just now, 87storms said:

There’s like 4 or 5+ main pieces to this puzzle.  NS, SS, GL, HP, 50/50... No wonder the models are flip flopping.

Exactly.  Every 6 or 12 hours depending on the model run is being thrown into wild convulsions over the new data coming in.  Its a big ask for this to come together just right.  But there is a path to victory and we are going to have a better idea by tonight in my opinion

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not as close as the precip maps look most of that stuff near us is snow tv. It does hook the good stuff back into New England though so that's good. 

The trends are encouraging but the way this is going is a typical fail setup for us now. 

It's close, especially H5

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Yeah. I referenced Boxing Day earlier but it got culled - I wasn’t trolling. These runs remind me of that so much. 

How so... the Boxing Day if I remember correctly... we were under a WSW and never got a flurry.  If we get anything from this (which I doubt)... we will back into it.

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Interstate: Boxing Day a WSW was hoisted hella late - we chased being on the fringe all week in a similar setup- lots of “its so close posts” - late model runs seemed to finally do the trick but then at the end wide right. This whole evolution has been so similar to that including the way it will probably miss.

 

eta: the Boxing Day thing remains really fresh for me because that was when I was traveling in TN for the holiday and made the call to fly my family back early to avoid the storm...I tracked the hell out of that one with the rest of you. The misses then are similar to the misses now in terms of set up and what we are hoping to get right at game time...

double eta: it snow TV’d Boxing Day when I was living in NE Balt city for hours. Didn’t accumulate even a little.

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17 minutes ago, Ji said:

dude we got plenty of time. The Nam shifted by 900 miles lol in one run...the storm for us now is Monday night....its a completely different storm than what we been tracking

Yea we have a shot. But I'm a bit perturbed this is no longer the "classic" mid Atlantic D.C. snow setup. Now instead of a nice juices up gulf system from the SW slamming into a block we are back to needing the northern stream to bomb and pull a system straight up the coast west enough for us. I seem to remember several of those in the last couple years. How they been working out for us?  

That said every storm is different. Recent history does not guarantee future results. But I liked the setup we had better then the one we got stuck with now. I feel like we traded in a BMW for a malibu 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Regardless of what happens at this point it is going to be another miss for those of us to west. We were dependent on a robust system tracking into TN or KY for us to have a chance. But a western screw job would fit right in with the trends the past 2 years.

Agreed. This sucks hard for your area as this has now trended and I am reduced to crossing fingers for magical steam interactions at just the right time for my area. Less than ideal.

someone go find southern vorts that are not wimps for next year.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea we have a shot. But I'm a bit perturbed this is no longer the "classic" mid Atlantic D.C. snow setup. Now instead of a nice juices up gulf system from the SW slamming into a block we are back to needing the northern stream to bomb and pull a system straight up the coast west enough for us. I seem to remember several of those in the last couple years. How they been working out for us?  

That said every storm is different. Recent history does not guarantee future results. But I liked the setup we had better then the one we got stuck with now. I feel like we traded in a BMW for a malibu 

Good news is the repairs to our Malibu storm will be much less expensive

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17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's close, especially H5

You're probably right. I need to reboot my expectations and give this new look a chance. I'm probably looking at it differently considering I'm 60 miles North of you and as I said to JI I liked the old setup way more then this. This exact setup fails for us way more often then a system coming at us from a southwest trajectory.   I would rather this just be a nothing burger then if it ends up dumping another foot of snow on the Delmarva and NYC while we get flurries.  That's just too painful a prospect and I'm mad it's even an option again. 

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20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Regardless of what happens at this point it is going to be another miss for those of us to west. We were dependent on a robust system tracking into TN or KY for us to have a chance. But a western screw job would fit right in with the trends the past 2 years.

Yep.  What was looking like a money track for us out west has morphed in what this winter has been all along.  We need a pattern change...like spring, summer and fall.

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7 minutes ago, cae said:

I like the H5 trend on the ICON too.  Unfortunately we're running out of time for much more improvement.

kPia2Gu.gif

We need 2 more adjustments like the one we got 12z.  But those become less likely as you get closer. But it's possible. The setup is within range of what we need. But often this setup will trend to the edge of what we need and just tease us. 

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