stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Oh man...NAM is excruciatingly close to something nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Maybe I spoke too soon? That H5 is enticing. Now the Northern vort is trying to catch the SOB southern one. Still thing it'll be too late for us, but man I still think you guys have plenty of time for a trend. The low is taking off and deepening pretty rapidly. It is very tucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Snow into dc at 57 but I don't think its coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Some snow reaches the area at 57 but.....Probaly heads out to sea after 57 but a major improvement. Frankly, I don't know how any depiction for any model can be trusted after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Slow down that lakes disturbance and amp up the coastal a little more. It's all it would take...in super non-technical terms. We want the lakes vort to dig down faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 goes from a 998 at 54, to a 990 at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Oh man...NAM is excruciatingly close to something nice It's simply unbelievable. This week. The models. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Nam at 48 hours showing exactly what we need to have any chance. The initial vort to the south is stronger and not trailing. The northern stream is slightly west. Look at the 48 hour h5 on TT and toggle the last two runs. One more adjustment like that and it might get captured and pulled north up the coast in time for us. Of course this is probably going to just be enough to pull it in for New England and that's why I'm down. We now need a perfect timed capture and that never seems to work. But I'll track it to the bitter end. Why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: We want the lakes vort to dig down faster Ok. Because it will phase into the backside? I thought the fear was that it would push the coastal OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Nam at 48 hours showing exactly what we need to have any chance. The initial vort to the south is stronger and not trailing. The northern stream is slightly west. Look at the 48 hour h5 on TT and toggle the last two runs. One more adjustment like that and it might get captured and pulled north up the coast in time for us. Of course this is probably going to just be enough to pull it in for New England and that's why I'm down. We now need a perfect timed capture and that never seems to work. But I'll track it to the bitter end. Why not. Of course it's going to phase in time for NE. Duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Maybe I spoke too soon? That H5 is enticing. Now the Northern vort is trying to catch the SOB southern one. Still thing it'll be too late for us, but man It's close. If it keeps trending the way it's going we have a shot. But it's also close to a Boxing Day disaster too if it settles where it is now. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's close. If it keeps trending the way it's going we have a shot. But it's also close to a Boxing Day disaster too if it settles where it is now. Ugh I honestly thought there would be a classic Mid Atlantic only region wide snowstorm with the depiction of the NAO block a couple weeks ago, yet it is the NE that continues to be hammered. Hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's close. If it keeps trending the way it's going we have a shot. But it's also close to a Boxing Day disaster too if it settles where it is now. Ugh lol, PSU, you have to leave the past in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's close. If it keeps trending the way it's going we have a shot. But it's also close to a Boxing Day disaster too if it settles where it is now. Ugh 982mb off the virginia capes is a boxing day disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Maybe 3km will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM went from 3 runs of a strung out mess to a colossal nor’easter in one run. Can’t say we haven’t been on this roller coaster before. 965 low passing off the 40/70 benchmark. There is not a single piece of guidance that has this locked in. Nothing can be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 OK still a major improvement with just enough time to cancel out the Boxing Day storm. I think the 12z GFS will keep us tracking till late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 It's also another vastly different H5 solution vs prior NAM runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: The depiction is what Mount Holly was talking about in thier discussion , rapid intensification based on Atlanitc SSTs and other factors . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 That’s a significant shift north from 6z. Still mostly ots but we get close to fringed here. I agree that it’s all about how that upper energy diving through the lakes interacts with the NS, SS, and 50/50. Might need that to be further south and timed better but it’s close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, frd said: The depiction is what Mount Holly was talking about in thier discussion , rapid intensification based on Atlanitc SSTs and other factors . Why is it moving so fast though? It's like a 6-hour storm in that depiction. What's the point of confluence if it just lets the low plow forward that fast? Also, it seems to be shedding millibars at a ridiculous rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Quote 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: NAM went from 3 runs of a strung out mess to a colossal nor’easter in one run. Can’t say we haven’t been on this roller coaster before. 965 low passing off the 40/70 benchmark. There is not a single piece of guidance that has this locked in. Nothing can be trusted. I have that sneaky suspicion this one is still trending. Gotta love waking up to explosive thunderstorm development in the Gulf. Sign that conditions are present for things to happen ;). Lets all be positive on this one. Save the best for last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Eps trends look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh man...NAM is excruciatingly close to something nice dude we got plenty of time. The Nam shifted by 900 miles lol in one run...the storm for us now is Monday night....its a completely different storm than what we been tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Salisbury checking in for Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Why is it moving so fast though? It's like a 6-hour storm in that depiction. What's the point of confluence if it just lets the low plow forward that fast? Also, it seems to be shedding millibars at a ridiculous rate. Speed is not something I worry about but nice to see a positive trend. Good call by Mount Holly, not saying this is the final outcome as I believe thier forecast discussion stated that it would be later cycles that the NAM may change its tune, I do not think they meant this current cycle. I feel a lot more changes still on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Might be all about how that NS vort and GL energy interact. I’d probably prefer a more north NS and slower GL energy otherwise I could see how this phases too far off the coast and north. Onto the rest of the 12z’s and then the 18s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: dude we got plenty of time. The Nam shifted by 900 miles lol in one run...the storm for us now is Monday night....its a completely different storm than what we been tracking Who said we didn;t have time? Now we have a whole new solution though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We want the lakes vort to dig down faster And west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.