showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 As we begin evacuation of USS Snow Hole (aka: Unfortunately we Suck at Snow) we ask all to remain calm as we will shortly be handing out numbers as to your designated spot on the cliff. Afterwards please remain calm and proceed in an orderly fashion to said cliff. @WxWatcher007(aka: THE REAPER) Has kindly offered his services on your journey forward. Luscious accommodations will be provided where there is even talk he will be serving up a special home brew of his own making. Before we proceed I would like to give a special shout out to just some of the wonderful people that make all this possible. @Ji, our 24/7 entertainment director. And WOW that was some interesting entertainment to say the least. Our co-moral counselors, @Jebman who never saw a lemon he did not like and @Eskimo Joe, who lives by the motto 'Go big or go home' and doesn't know the meaning of the word quit. On board Climate control specialist, @Vice-Regent. Was a little warm Vice, would you work on that? Statistician, @Mdecoy who never saw a number he couldn't turn on its head. Never knew Charleston, SC and DC snowfall were the same. The things we learn on these trips. Those who work tirelessly behind the scenes, and sometimes not, tidying up those unfortunate messes, @mappy, @H2O, @WxUSAF. @C.A.P.E. who provided us with the wonderful beers on board to help get us through some of the rough seas. Will that new IPA be available next go round? @George BM who was up at all hours of the night providing the platform for our next day's discussions. And I could just go on because there are just so many to name and yet time is short. So for those I have forgotten to mention my sincerest apologies. We of the @stormtracker Cruise Lines and the maiden voyage of the USS Snow Hole would like to thank you for your patronage and look forward to seeing you once again next year as we unveil our new ride, The USS El Nino which will take us to the promised land. Thank you again and may your journey forward be a pleasurable one. For those who will accompany me, @psuhoffman and @Bob Chill, please follow me there is still much to do before the ship goes down. Hmmmm... is that a threat I see 10+ days away? Maybe we should check into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Are we possibly seeing a final tease to our Sun/Mon storm? Models are getting more aggressive (quicker, deeper) with driving strong energy down the back side of the trough towards the shortwave at the base. With the model mayhem I have pretty much thrown my hands in the air in trying to figure out what we need to see to score for our region so I am along for the ride more then anything else. All I know with almost certainty is that NE will score big some way, some how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Thread cleaned up since the gfs. Some of you need to shut the ***k up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Are we possibly seeing a final tease to our Sun/Mon storm? Models are getting more aggressive (quicker, deeper) with driving strong energy down the back side of the trough towards the shortwave at the base. With the model mayhem I have pretty much thrown my hands in the air in trying to figure out what we need to see to score for our region so I am along for the ride more then anything else. All I know with almost certainty is that NE will score big some way, some how. I think the NAM looks really close to pulling something off. It might be too late for us, but it certainly seems close to me. Ukie is obviously close as well but it will probably swing wildly next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 From Mount Holly AFD this morning- I dont think the models are cohesive here. The NAM is late to the table on this one but am expecting much more NAM development by the 00z/11 cycle tomorrow. For now its trying to set up an inverted trough for Tuesday as our primary snow event. The UKMET was my favored model since its been consistent for two cycles, and closer to the coast, which is what I expect again this winter with this upcoming system (SST`s offshore still above normal and will probably contribute to rapid intensification in a more unstable environment). The GFS UK ECMWF all seem to be onto the rapid intensification. That said, forecast uncertainty continues and haven`t said too much yet about what may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 47 minutes ago, H2O said: Thread cleaned up since the gfs. Some of you need to shut the ***k up Thanks, just checking in. What a mess. I’ll check as much as I can today but we’ve got errands to run. On topic: I like the ukie obviously. Wishing the gfs and euro would just get it together already, but wpc not trusting the suppressed runs give me pause that we aren’t done for yet. Really wish others would do the same and stop jumping so much. It’s unhealthy and annoying to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NWS Blacksburg has hoisted Winter Storm Watches for most of their VA counties west of the Blue Ridge...minus mine and Bath lol. That is OK, think I'll still pull a 3 inch total, shattering my biggest snow in over two years here, crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 The good news is we are surrounded by snow. The bad news is were surrounded by snow! You can't make this stuff up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 UKMET run last night was pretty good and enough to keep me interested. What I'd like to know is its accuracy and if it has behaved like the other models the past few days or has it been less ADHD like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I believe this is from more of a New England perspective though https://twitter.com/AMSweather/status/972465700764897281 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I believe this is from more of a New England perspective though https://twitter.com/AMSweather/status/972465700764897281He’s in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Probably the craziest model war heading up to an event in Eastern/AmericanWx history. I cant ever remember a time with more disagreement so close to an event. We may not ever get the actual solution from any model. It may come down to nowcasting any interaction between the streams. Crazy with todays technology in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Probably the craziest model war heading up to an event in Eastern/AmericanWx history. I cant ever remember a time with more disagreement so close to an event. We may not ever get the actual solution from any model. It may come down to nowcasting any interaction between the streams. Crazy with todays technology in all honesty. Doesn’t really matter though. No models get any snow in our neck of the woods. All models show a SL off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: I believe this is from more of a New England perspective though https://twitter.com/AMSweather/status/972465700764897281 Yeah, I'm guessing this would be similar to what the 0z CMC spit out at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 This WV loop shows very well how the 50/50 is going to end up screwing us. It is really squashing things to the south. One other thing that stands out to me is that the NS vort is pretty robust. Also storms firing up in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Doesn’t really matter though. No models get any snow in our neck of the woods. All models show a SL off the coast. NAVGEM actually does give us some snow TV with heavier stuff not that far off. Thursday night/Friday morning when models were all over the place the NAVGEM was further south pretty much the whole time. It's slowly started to creep northward over it's last 5 runs instead of jumping all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Well, at least today...we wouldn't expect to see anymore model teases...uh, right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just getting caught up with what happened overnight... There are some really funny people here. I'm going to keep reminding myself that the Ukie is the 2nd best model in the world for about another 3 hours. The best model in the world came north. We lost the GGEM at 18z and 00z, but it came back a bit at 06z. Similarly the 18z and 00z extended RGEM were ugly, but it came back a bit at 06z. The GEPS *cough* backed off a bit. But that was from the ugly Canadian 00z suite. RGEM ensemble maps for those who are curious. This is only through 72 hours and also from the ugly Canadian 00z suite. I expect 06z would have been better. 06z GEFS brings the mslp for the coastal the farthest west so far. GFS still looks good for central VA, and this trend in H5 can't be bad if you want it to come up the coast. Question for @psuhoffman: Is this a setup where you would expect the GFS to be underdoing the NW extent of the precip shield? All things considred, I still think there's a reasonable chance the coastal amplifies more and tucks in closer. I think the eastern shore is still very much in the game, and the areas around the cities might see enough flakes to get many (but not all) of us to post some happy obs before spring gets here for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 12z nam starting to show signs of wanting to juice up at hr 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 looks much better at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Just now, ryanconway63 said: looks much better at 36 Pops the low in central TN on 12K NAM. May look more GFS/RGEM like here momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Hr 42 looks better. Still not going to be what we want. That disturbance over the lakes is our problem IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 @cae No because the upper energy is being stretched and suppressed by the next northern system diving in on top. This new evolution is fools gold for us. Out ticket was the NS vort diving in from the NW. That gets sheared apart and suppressed. The one diving in right on top of us can't work. It would have to come down west of Michigan to pull that off. Not enough time for that kind of adjustment imo. Our only hope is to get the first vort to trend stronger and get it in front of the northern stream diving in on top. Get that captured and tugged North. If the first system goes out then a new miller b pops from the next vort we have no chance. That will be for New England. Maybe New Jersey. But even if my first scenario happens that's how Boxing Day happened. The system would still probably slide east too far before turning. We would still be a long shot. Our only shot is getting that vort stronger and a low up into KY so everything ends up transferring to the va capes. Otherwise we need some 1 in 100 year type capture and pull back scenario again. this whole new setup sucks for us now. It looked good when that first vort was the one. Good angle of approach. Good ridge trough axis. But that vort diving down is on top of US. Way too far east to do us any good. It's evolving towards another miller b screw job imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @cae No because the upper energy is being stretched and suppressed by the next northern system diving in on top. This new evolution is fools gold for us. Out ticket was the NS vort diving in from the NW. That gets sheared apart and suppressed. The one diving in right on top of us can't work. It would have to come down west of Michigan to pull that off. Not enough time for that kind of adjustment imo. Our only hope is to get the first vort to trend stronger and get it in front of the northern stream diving in on top. Get that captured and tugged North. If the first system goes out then a new miller b pops from the next vort we have no chance. That will be for New England. Maybe New Jersey. But even if my first scenario happens that's how Boxing Day happened. The system would still probably slide east too far before turning. We would still be a long shot. Our only shot is getting that vort stronger and a low up into KY so everything ends up transferring to the va capes. Otherwise we need some 1 in 100 year type capture and pull back scenario again. this whole new setup sucks for us now. It looked good when that first vort was the one. Good angle of approach. Good ridge trough axis. But that vort diving down is on top of US. Way too far east to do us any good. It's evolving towards another miller b screw job imo. So you are saying there's a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM H5 is the best look we've seen...unfortunately, it still won't be enough for us. Trof is till positively titled. She's headed out to sea south of us again this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 It'll get better don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM H5 is the best look we've seen...unfortunately, it still won't be enough for us. Trof is till positively titled. She's headed out to sea south of us again this run I gotta tell you man. That looks to be the best setup for our area down here. Low is right around the outer banks. Good moisture transport up this way. Gonna be a solid hit for southern/central VA and NC Foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 Maybe I spoke too soon? That H5 is enticing. Now the Northern vort is trying to catch the SOB southern one. Still thing it'll be too late for us, but man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Slow down that lakes disturbance and amp up the coastal a little more. It's all it would take...in super non-technical terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 NAM is tucked into the coast at 51. The next frame will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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