psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3k took a step the wrong way too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 At 45 on 3k and it looks disjointed at h5 compared to 12z 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:41 PM, 87storms said: I think the fact that the globals aren’t locked in yet might explain why the nam is all over the place. I’m much more interested in what the globals say until maybe tomorrow. Expand the southern low just never was able to get its act together, so the more dominate northern one just kicked it out. weird solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:42 PM, showmethesnow said: The 3K doesn't exactly having me do hand flips either. All I can say about both is just look at how much the surface and 500's is dancing around. Should give you a hint how much weight you should put on them at this time. Expand ha, exactly what i said. its a mess. very disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:42 PM, showmethesnow said: The 3K doesn't exactly having me do hand flips either. All I can say about both is just look at how much the surface and 500's is dancing around. Should give you a hint how much weight you should put on them at this time. Expand Agree. The surface and 500's make no sense. It's bouncing around all over the place. Can't look at it at all. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:44 PM, Quasievil said: Agree. The surface and 500's makes no sense. It's bouncing around all over the place. Can't look at it at all. Toss it. Expand ha, yeah the 3k, a surface low pops in texas and then literally bounces around for 24 hours before making a move to the coast. edit: then bounces down to the gulf coast. what a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3k is a mess too. Southern wave is getting to the coast as the upper low is still near Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:44 PM, mappy said: the southern low just never was able to get its act together, so the more dominate northern one just kicked it out. weird solution. Expand Say wha?? Now the past few days, it's been just the SS and NS not joining up (often because the NS had been too slow?)...but the SS has at least come in strong to start. But now the NAM makes the SS that weak that even a faster NS that we've needed just kicks it out? Haven't seen THAT one yet...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:48 PM, psuhoffman said: 3k is a mess too. Southern wave is getting to the coast as the upper low is still near Missouri. Expand im a fan of the low in western NC at hr 49, then the panhandle of FL at hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:50 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Say wha?? Now the past few days, it's been just the SS and NS not joining up (often because the NS had been too slow?)...but the SS has at least come in strong to start. But now the NAM makes the SS that weak that even a faster NS that we've needed just kicks it out? Haven't seen THAT one yet...lol Expand Yup, its a completely new solution. At least on the 12K. The 3K is a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:48 PM, mappy said: ha, yeah the 3k, a surface low pops in texas and then literally bounces around for 24 hours before making a move to the coast. edit: then bounces down to the gulf coast. what a disaster. Expand Maybe we should just ignore the NAM ping pong for now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:48 PM, mappy said: ha, yeah the 3k, a surface low pops in texas and then literally bounces around for 24 hours before making a move to the coast. edit: then bounces down to the gulf coast. what a disaster. Expand Jumps from southern Alabama to Western North Carolina to Southern Georgia in 3 hours. Ha, ha... err, NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The many moving pieces of this storm have not been sorted out by the Major Globals. Until they settle down and decide on an outcome I cant imagine the NAM having much luck figuring anything past about 24 hours if that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:50 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Say wha?? Now the past few days, it's been just the SS and NS not joining up (often because the NS had been too slow?)...but the SS has at least come in strong to start. But now the NAM makes the SS that weak that even a faster NS that we've needed just kicks it out? Haven't seen THAT one yet...lol Expand One of my fears all along was that the southern wave would trend weaker. It's done that all year. But I'm not going overboard based on the nam at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:50 PM, mappy said: Yup, its a completely new solution. At least on the 12K. The 3K is a hot mess. Expand Watch the stj crap out and this become another miller b lol doubt it but would be fitting. Whenever a wave was supposed to get under us the southern vort ended up non existent and all NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 8:59 PM, psuhoffman said: One of my fears all along was that the southern wave would trend weaker. It's done that all year. But I'm not going overboard based on the nam at range. Expand Was gonna say...if it's just the NAM doing that and we haven't seen that solution spit out before now....perhaps it won't be an issue (now if we see any of the globals do it later...gulp...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18z RGEM at 48 has 1009mb SLP on the extreme NE MS and extreme NW AL border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18z GFS at 30h doesn't look like one of those runs that end up in Tennessee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 GFS looks like the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 9:38 PM, supernovasky said: 18z GFS at 30h doesn't look like one of those runs that end up in Tennessee... Expand Agree. Weaker than the past 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The high just north of the Great Lakes is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 9:39 PM, supernovasky said: GFS looks like the 12z NAM. Expand The NS is 100 miles south at 42 on the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 For some reason, I don't think this is as bad as we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 It’s slower...that seems like it might be a key...slower=more time for a phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 9:46 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: It’s slower...that seems like it might be a key...slower=more time for a phase? Expand Seems like that would make sense. It's what the EPS did and it had some favorable solutions that started late. I can look into that on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 9:46 PM, stormtracker said: For some reason, I don't think this is as bad as we think. Expand The energy in Canada is trying to get behind it, instead of pushing it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On 3/9/2018 at 9:46 PM, stormtracker said: For some reason, I don't think this is as bad as we think. Expand I was just thinking that...the whole timing seems to be slower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The trough is tighter...should be a good H5 pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 It's going to miss, but vastly different than 12z at the surface. It almost did it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The GFS gets some light stuff up to our area at 69. But we are fringed again. A little better 75-78 South and East of town. I guess we need to hope the precip shield would be larger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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