ams30721us Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I'm sure a few of us have been watching a disturbance on the models the past week or so, which has been pretty cluttered with differences in the strength and location of shortwaves, and any phasing as we move into the weekend. Over the past 12-18 hours, the data seems to have started to trend toward a possible impactful event across Iowa, and western Illinois, including the potential advisory, or even warning criteria snow events in spots Saturday night into Sunday. Right now, the GFS, Bamms, RPM are hinting at warning level snows possible in a few stripes, in Iowa, and across the Ohio River, with advisory level snows possible for the QC metro and areas nearby. The latest 12z NAM seems to be trending in that direction as well. The shortwave in question is just now entering the Pacific Northwest currently, so hopefully we will have a much better idea, on if this system will be as wet as possibly being indicated by the GFS and other Hi-res guidance by this afternoon's 12z & tonights 00z runs. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts and opinions. Personally, it would be a nice birthday surprise for me, but I know others are all aboard the spring train! I kinda am, myself, but I do like a fresh coat of white! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 The 12z GFS & 12z NAM coming in quite juicy in spots today, near I-80 across southeastern Iowa or western Illinois. Approaching warning criteria in pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 UK has shifted northeast, now shows precip over much of Iowa. The Euro, while inching ne again this run, is still well sw and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Yea, Ukmet really jump onboard, while the Euro continues to inch closer, but is still farthest SW and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The GFS peaked at 00z and 06z last night, but has taken a couple steps back with the 12z and, especially, the 18z run. I'll have to see more from the GFS and other models before I get on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 00z NAM, ICON, and GFS all waving bye-bye to this system. I was never sold on it, though, so no big deal. DMX jumped the gun a bit this afternoon, talking it up and putting out a robust snowfall graphic. DVN was wise to be skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted March 10, 2018 Author Share Posted March 10, 2018 6 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z NAM, ICON, and GFS all waving bye-bye to this system. I was never sold on it, though, so no big deal. DMX jumped the gun a bit this afternoon, talking it up and putting out a robust snowfall graphic. DVN was wise to be skeptical. Yep, waking up and look over the evening data, and it's def. trending backwards. Geez. What a head scratcher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 Still looks decent for some area... just farther south. Looks like Kentucky is the place to be in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 11, 2018 Share Posted March 11, 2018 An area to the southeast of Des Moines and south of Ottumwa received 3.0-4.5" of snow overnight and this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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