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March 12-13 possible coastal event


The Iceman

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This one has a chance to surprise especially towards coastal areas. Timing is perfect for accumulation. Plus if this comes in even a tick west than current guidance, many more places will see snow. I still think 2-3" from trenton north is fair with lollipops of 4 or 5" in elevated areas. SE PA to the river is a coating to 2" with white rain being the most likely outcome. Still if we get a period of just moderate snow, we could accumulate on the grass especially with the cool temps and a night time event. SNE is gonna get crushed...

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C-2" is best guess for SE PA. Wont change that thought. However, HRRR is 4mb stonger and significantly farther west with LP vs last run only an hour ago. Probably noise but worth noting. Thinking a sneak surprise may be in store for East of the NJ Turnpike in C NJ.....we'll see.

 

 

 

Eta: 'stronger' added.....typo

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

C-2" is best guess for SE PA. Wont change that thought. However, HRRR is 4mb stonger and significantly farther west with LP vs last run only an hour ago. Probably noise but worth noting. Thinking a sneak surprise may be in store for East of the NJ Turnpike in C NJ.....we'll see.

 

 

 

Eta: 'stronger' added.....typo

agreed...HRRR is interesting but it is trash in it's late hours. If it is still showing the low further west come this evening then maybe I'll buy it but 12z guidance hasn't budged. This one is going to be a near miss for most of us but I agree that someone between the parkway and tp will have a localized surprise event out of this... 

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29 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

agreed...HRRR is interesting but it is trash in it's late hours. If it is still showing the low further west come this evening then maybe I'll buy it but 12z guidance hasn't budged. This one is going to be a near miss for most of us but I agree that someone between the parkway and tp will have a localized surprise event out of this... 

:snowing:

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now this may mean nothing but it's very interesting that the northern vort looks furth SW than progged.

Here is the 12z 3k NAM for 17z

nam3km_z500_vort_us_6.png

 

and here is the current WV loop...note the current vort position now at 1630 nearing the ohio/in/ky border...definitely further SW than where it was supposed to be 30 mins in the future according to the NAM....wasn't supposed to be nearing that position(and the NAM has it further E) until 21z. 

 

CODGOES16-continental-conus_08.20180312.162722-map.thumb.gif.d1aff72c70c76431eddd7433a6c036fe.gif

 

 

Now I don't know for sure if this will have any impact but imo I think this means the coastal low may end up track a bit further west than projected...won't mean much for SE PA but for NJ it could mean a surprise solid snow event could be in the cards. Definitely something to keep an eye on

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Been nice because i have been completely out with this one after my bustorama. But i need 1.20" for a 40" snow season, which is kind of a big milestone number for winter with only seven such winters for me since 1980. It would be the first 40" winter that wasn't one of the greats which is also interesting. Expectations set at 1.20" 

 

 

 

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I was out of power for 5 days due to the  last two storms so I shouldn't want another but I can't help wonder what we may have seen if that ns vort had not been there. It probably would have resulted in a DC to Boston hecs.

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Light rain with an occasional flake here, 36F. Hoping for a coating here, checking the radar, for now it feels a little like trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Still optimistic though - must be the weenie in me.

eta: that map didn't help Birds~69, lol. I'm just inside that coating line north of Wilmington.

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Just now, The Iceman said:

Have had a mix of rain and snow for a little bit now. Radar looks much better than I thought it would.. maybe we get a surprise couple inches even back in extreme se pa...

I think you're in a good spot to get a couple of inches. 35F here now, still light rain with a few more flakes here and there.

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