The Iceman Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 This one has a chance to surprise especially towards coastal areas. Timing is perfect for accumulation. Plus if this comes in even a tick west than current guidance, many more places will see snow. I still think 2-3" from trenton north is fair with lollipops of 4 or 5" in elevated areas. SE PA to the river is a coating to 2" with white rain being the most likely outcome. Still if we get a period of just moderate snow, we could accumulate on the grass especially with the cool temps and a night time event. SNE is gonna get crushed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Sun quickly disappearing behind clouds, 33F. Expectations set at flurries here, maybe a snow shower. Good luck to everyone further north and east. Maybe a snow squall on Wed?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 C-2" is best guess for SE PA. Wont change that thought. However, HRRR is 4mb stonger and significantly farther west with LP vs last run only an hour ago. Probably noise but worth noting. Thinking a sneak surprise may be in store for East of the NJ Turnpike in C NJ.....we'll see. Eta: 'stronger' added.....typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Can't say I'm real impressed w/the way the radar looks and movement. West of I95 looks to be a non event...appears to be mainly a coastal event. I'm already at 39.4F as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: C-2" is best guess for SE PA. Wont change that thought. However, HRRR is 4mb stonger and significantly farther west with LP vs last run only an hour ago. Probably noise but worth noting. Thinking a sneak surprise may be in store for East of the NJ Turnpike in C NJ.....we'll see. Eta: 'stronger' added.....typo agreed...HRRR is interesting but it is trash in it's late hours. If it is still showing the low further west come this evening then maybe I'll buy it but 12z guidance hasn't budged. This one is going to be a near miss for most of us but I agree that someone between the parkway and tp will have a localized surprise event out of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 29 minutes ago, The Iceman said: agreed...HRRR is interesting but it is trash in it's late hours. If it is still showing the low further west come this evening then maybe I'll buy it but 12z guidance hasn't budged. This one is going to be a near miss for most of us but I agree that someone between the parkway and tp will have a localized surprise event out of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 now this may mean nothing but it's very interesting that the northern vort looks furth SW than progged. Here is the 12z 3k NAM for 17z and here is the current WV loop...note the current vort position now at 1630 nearing the ohio/in/ky border...definitely further SW than where it was supposed to be 30 mins in the future according to the NAM....wasn't supposed to be nearing that position(and the NAM has it further E) until 21z. Now I don't know for sure if this will have any impact but imo I think this means the coastal low may end up track a bit further west than projected...won't mean much for SE PA but for NJ it could mean a surprise solid snow event could be in the cards. Definitely something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Been nice because i have been completely out with this one after my bustorama. But i need 1.20" for a 40" snow season, which is kind of a big milestone number for winter with only seven such winters for me since 1980. It would be the first 40" winter that wasn't one of the greats which is also interesting. Expectations set at 1.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just looking at the radar movements it does look a tad more west than what I would've thought.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I’ll take my p-cloudy weather and be glad to cheer on Spring, but looking long range Spring might on hold for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 The RAP and HRRR both want to form a band of snow out this way during the evening and early night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 I was out of power for 5 days due to the last two storms so I shouldn't want another but I can't help wonder what we may have seen if that ns vort had not been there. It probably would have resulted in a DC to Boston hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Mixture of light rain and snow falling here at work in Hopewell Township Mercer County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 flurries have been falling here for the past 15 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Light snow and 38F snow on snow for 2/3 of the front lawn yippeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 This map is just flat out sad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Light rain with an occasional flake here, 36F. Hoping for a coating here, checking the radar, for now it feels a little like trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Still optimistic though - must be the weenie in me. eta: that map didn't help Birds~69, lol. I'm just inside that coating line north of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 It had been drizzling for a few hours earlier - enough to wet the ground but currently overcast & 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Light drizzle here too, 37F. Worst non-event ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 12, 2018 Author Share Posted March 12, 2018 Have had a mix of rain and snow for a little bit now. Radar looks much better than I thought it would.. maybe we get a surprise couple inches even back in extreme se pa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Just now, The Iceman said: Have had a mix of rain and snow for a little bit now. Radar looks much better than I thought it would.. maybe we get a surprise couple inches even back in extreme se pa... I think you're in a good spot to get a couple of inches. 35F here now, still light rain with a few more flakes here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 You can see where the storm is (1st pic us, 2nd pic down in S. VA/N. NC) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Light white rain 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Looks like a few mangled flakes trying to mix in. Temp steady at 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Light (wet) snow here now, 35F. Hey, it's snowing! Not enough to accumulate at this rate, but it's a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Steady rain 38 with north winds. Was NE winds until recently. Pretty raw evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 White rain has begun to stick to the grill look out 34.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 light snow and gusty winds at Allaire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 LOL (overcast & 36F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Have a nice coating on colder surfaces. Better than nothing i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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