hazwoper Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: THIS is a big short term change and maybe something to consider with energy re-emerging from sparse data regions and finally just starting to get sampled. Could be wrong too but I think it is certainly of importance to note: THIS is where we need to see the change, and sadly its worse.......the system has zero chance to head north with that 500mb look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 and sure enough the GFS continues to suppress with it now further south and out to sea just like the NAM. Its over....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 HAZWOPER is an acronym which stands for Hazardous Waste Operations and Emergency Response. HAZWOPERtraining is covered under OSHA standard 29 CFR Part 1910.120. Ahhh, I never knew that. In any event whenever I see your screen name I immediately picture a whopper with cheese.....dont ask, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 and sure enough the GFS continues to suppress with it now further south and out to see just like the NAM. Its over.......GFS improved at H5 yet went opposite way at the surface. Has a stronger primary vorticity in the Plains entering the midwest but looks like timing is just slightly off. This is a somewhat typical GFS flaw and personally Im tossing it, not because I dont like the outcome but because it looks ok at h5 yet somehow just misses a phase and runs that piece out ahead.....different from the direction most other guidance is headed. Like I said before, Im not sure the final outcome here but based on synoptic features in the short range (the pulling N and slight weakening of the h5 feature *on some guidance* on the map u posted being one), Im not sold on this sliding off the southern NC coast as harmlessly as the gfs at 12z depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS improved at H5 yet went opposite way at the surface. Has a stronger primary vorticity in the Plains entering the midwest but looks like timing is just slightly off. This is a somewhat typical GFS flaw and personally Im tossing it, not because I dont like the outcome but because it looks ok at h5 yet somehow just misses a phase and runs that piece out ahead.....different from the direction most other guidance is headed. Like I said before, Im not sure the final outcome here but based on synoptic features in the short range (the pulling N and slight weakening of the h5 feature *on some guidance* on the map u posted being one), Im not sold on this sliding off the southern NC coast as harmlessly as the gfs at 12z depicts. agreed...h5 looked improved but the surface didn't reflect that. Not sure I buy that either and with the short range guidance keying on a stronger primary, I don't think an OTS solution is a stone cold lock. I mean how many times just this winter did we see big changes inside 48 hours? Last storm we saw massive changes 18 hours out. When you look at the models making huge changes every 6 hours, I'm not sure how anyone could be definitive at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Actually looking again, I am wrong.....that confluence flow feature you posted isnt necessarily weaking per se. The biggest diffs are irt the timing and speed of the vorticity in the Plains. Some guidance is slower which allow for a partial phase in the that area which being slower gives more time for the 50/50 flow to pull away thus more room to come N. So u r right.....if the speed of the vorticity and escaping without a phase like the gfs is correct than squashed city at the surface ala gfs. If slower like the NAM or more N which allows for more interaction/phase, it will be slowing down so that our 50/50 can get out of the way. Again, lots of energy and pieces to this yet to be resolved which could yield some surprise results at the surface one way or another early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 7 minutes ago, hazwoper said: HAZWOPER is an acronym which stands for Hazardous Waste Operations and Emergency Response. HAZWOPERtraining is covered under OSHA standard 29 CFR Part 1910.120. Ahhh, I never knew that. In any event whenever I see your screen name I immediately picture a whopper with cheese.....dont ask, lol. My mind went to BK too. 2 whoppers for $6 right now if the shoveling didn't give you a heartattack that will help. At least you didn't type NW instead of NE (too concerned with those guys missing out) and have to admit it to famartin /Ray/americanwx celebrity after he complimented/validated my measurements and asked my location. Irt this threat, my qualitative simplistic reasoning seems like there are too many moving parts that all have to time and phase just right that the likelihood of a major storm is minimal if not negligible. We always hear and talk about "potential" for a given timeframe, which is still there, but is not probable imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Relying on timing and phasing is fool’s gold in these parts. Very low likelihood normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, bluehens said: Relying on timing and phasing is fool’s gold in these parts. Very low likelihood normally. ...we've seen it happen twice in the past week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 45 minutes ago, The Iceman said: ...we've seen it happen twice in the past week without a screaming NW to SE 500mb wind we did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 ukmet is very very very close to something big for at least southern parts of the area. as is, would still be a decent event for them and even SE PA takes a glancing blow. Big time shift from 00z. very interesting development as the uk and euro were very similar up until this point. gives me some hope the euro folds at 12z and starts trending in a good direction. we'll see in a hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 ...we've seen it happen twice in the past weekMesos ftw yet again Ice? NAM, SREF, RGEMx are holding onto the primary much longer into the lower OV/KY area before triple point and transfer. Ukie is nailbitingly close for us with a decent hit for NJ. The extended panels on the RGEM would be a significant hit for all of Southern and Eastern PA over into S Central NJ fwiw. Mesos vs the globals. Eta: CRAS came even farther N with primary into KY/WV border before transfer then hits S PA, extreme SE PA and NJ with ULL pass fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Primary low nearly always hold on longer than modeled, nearly always. We discussed this ad nauseum last week and saw the Wednesday system generally do the same thing with a later and farther N primary. I agree with haz.....pattern is *slightly* different but my point is more how long a primary hangs tough and punches N. This also isnt a Miller A despite what many are saying. Hybrid maybe between Miller A/B? I do know with most Miller Bs they tend to favor more of a later transfer than modeled and end up farther N.....recall how many times we have been left on the SW side of a Miller B redevelopment?? Personally I would still rather have a suppressed look at 72 hours out with a transfer system as opposed to a runner hoping for a shift SE to the coast. Just look at Wednesday again....bullseye shifted from SE PA to N NJ 18 hours or so prior. This is NOT a single Miller A southern low coming NE.....there is energy digging into the Plains/midwest with more energy phasing into it with a neg NAO ridge still in place (weaker but there) causing a transfer to the coast. We'll see.....I dont think a final forecast has been made yet for early next week and I think those sounding the all-clear/its over alarm are premature. Like I said, Im not sure what will happen. Maybe not a Philly hit directly as I mentioned many times, but could still impact a part of the region. I havent folded on SE PA yet either fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 GEPS are VERY solid. They continue to trend favorably and simply have not wavered and refuse to cave. Unreal disagreement still. This trend on the GEPS cannot be denied (last 5 runs): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Geez, something gotta give soon. We have 2 clusters of model camps.....SECS/MECS vs Southern OTS slider. Regardless of final outcome, what a wild whacky way to go thru the last parts of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Not quite there at the surface but the Euro took a huge move towards more of a bomb closer to the coast look. Slows the energy down again with the ULL getting really close to a capture. Timing variances at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 In a rare situation where wpc discards a model due to error, they have tossed today's 12z gfs fwiw. Disco is on their site. This is becoming more of a timing and when does the lp turn the corner type deal than just 18 hours ago. You can clearly see the trends on the models to slow everything down and eventually have more energy phase into the back of the ULL causing a tug back W ( turns system on a N/NNE trajectory vs E/ENE). Some models have this happening sooner (remember the 2 or 3 gfs runs prior to 12z that had snowfall stripe across NJ and part of SE PA on a NNE bearing?) vs too far E and well off the coast. Going to have to see but this is clearly a new twist. The Ukmet is more of a N trajectory with a minor E bearing. Euro of course now take lp East off of Hatteras than bombs the heck out of it going due N or even slightly W of N for a period. Capture happens just too late for us but man, close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 RGEMx.....meh ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I like what I see for a widespread 4-8” snowfall I-95 east. Ensembles are in good agreement. I think people are going to be happy with tonight’s 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 EPS are beautiful. Big cluster of captured lows just off the coast and coming N/NNE with the lp. Qpf mean is signaling a hit here as well. Headed out for a whopper..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 EPS are beautiful. Big cluster of captured lows just off the coast and coming N/NNE with the lp. Qpf mean is signaling a hit here as well. Headed out for a whopper.....Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Here Please re-post in MA thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 good grief....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 DT says the trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS are beautiful. Big cluster of captured lows just off the coast and coming N/NNE with the lp. Qpf mean is signaling a hit here as well. Headed out for a whopper..... Here as in I95 region? Or maybe throw us a bone out here? I swore I wouldn’t get reeled in no more but Iam now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18z GEFS. Here is the critical panel. Note the strong tight clustering of lows well West of the mean and closer to the coast. Waiting for the ULL to phase and catch it. My guess based on recent trends to that we will see this feature continue to tick West overall but the flopping around from run to run will likely continue for a good 24 more hours at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Seems we are moving away from a 1 part system and pinning hope on a second piece of ul energy diving into the trof to hopefully spin up a coastal early Tuesday and bring it N. Part 1 will probably be squashed and this is what models were struggling with. Soon we turn focus to part 2 and see if we can score with the new low just off the Mid Atl coast that some ops and indiv ens are showing. Biggest fear with this is the old suppression part 1 then too far E part 2. Still think the setup needs to be watched. So many different pieces and changes happening with the progs. Definitely not tossing this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seems we are moving away from a 1 part system and pinning hope on a second piece of ul energy diving into the trof to hopefully spin up a coastal early Tuesday and bring it N. Part 1 will probably be squashed and this is what models were struggling with. Soon we turn focus to part 2 and see if we can score with the new low just off the Mid Atl coast that some ops and indiv ens are showing. Biggest fear with this is the old suppression part 1 then too far E part 2. Still think the setup needs to be watched. So many different pieces and changes happening with the progs. Definitely not tossing this one out. As they like to say in the MA forum, we don't do complicated well. But in another week or so, there probably won't be anything to track until tropical season, so may as well hang in 'til the final strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Where is my fork? Ughh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Welp...the 12Z NAM just hung a juicy curveball over the middle of the plate. We fouled just outside the right foul pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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