Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Not dead yet. 18z GFS gives parts of the region snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18z GFS snowfall map reminds me alot of Jan 87. Congrats South Jersey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS snowfall map reminds me alot of Jan 87. Congrats South Jersey! This snowmap looks better imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 7" in 18 hours ain't gonna cut it. Good trend but hopefully a sign of things to come. Heavy rates are a must during March without Arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GFS was less suppressive this run. At 500 mb, the ULL over the Hudson Bay was much further north, the low off Maine coast further east, and the trough slightly more amplified which allowed the storm to come north and bring a snowstorm to I-95 S and E. Hopefully there is more support at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7" in 18 hours ain't gonna cut it. Good trend but hopefully a sign of things to come. Heavy rates are a must during March without Arctic air.GEPS continue to trend hard for a sizeable event here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS snowfall map reminds me alot of Jan 87. Congrats South Jersey! 10:1 ratios not really realistic- Kuchera better- but either way it’s “game on” again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 It would be a miracle if this storm happens, given the current state of things= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It would be a miracle if this storm happens, given the current state of things= Pattern supports a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 57 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Pattern supports a storm As does DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As does DT Not sure DT is sold it will get all the way up to us. Maybe SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Not sure DT is sold it will get all the way up to us. Maybe SNJ. His tweet earlier was solid for S PA and most of NJ and DE unless he revised his ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Have only seen sref plume 21utc but looks like it is on board, .39 through end of run with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Amazing how consistent the GFS op, GEFS, and GEPS have been irt how far N this system gets. Measurable snows into SE PA on all 3. Not sure of rates/stickage but point is signal still there. Actually 0z geps 24 hour precip is even farther Northwest and increased again. Again now sure about rates/stickage. As Iceman said, low rates during day wont cut it but we can sort that our later....lets keep the track coming N first. Amazing how the models are diverging so much right now with the Northern ones going farther N and the Southern camp being more squashed. Again, confidence still low on this as minor changes aloft will impact the overall track and end result immensely but sticking with my thoughts from yesterday that there is more room for this to be a N track than a Southern squashed one (exit off NC coast vs FL/GA coast camps would lean more NC). Might not end up a square hit here but the Southern US squashed OTS tracks are probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6z GFS. Ticked E but still hanging onto that farther N camp idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Have only seen sref plume 21utc but looks like it is on board, .39 through end of run with more to come. Surprising how the SREFS continue to be N and bumping precip with a clear Northwest lean yet the NAM is squashing the lp. Arent they essentially the NAM ensembles? Major disagreement even among similar model families attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Random thought....one of the main things keeping confidence lower than usual here isnt necessarily the disparity among guidance even among similar model families. Iceman has a rule that states NEVER go against the Euro and NAM (EE rule) when they agree and this has been fairly accurate in general past few storms. We have the Euro and NAM completely squashed possibly the most suppressed and sheared OTS off the SE Coast than any other guidance. Do we ride them and assume that is the solution that verifies? From a meteo sense, the amplifying ridge out West and trof location off the W Coast are in perfect sync for a downstream SECS look.... 50/50 is present... Neg NAO check.... Diving vigorous ull into midwest and OV trying to close off, check.... SS energy riding across the southern tier states, check. Meteo data alone supports a SECS but some models say nah, nothing to see here, move along. Meteorology vs verbatim modelology the way to go here. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Alot of spread and lean to the NW of the mean lp here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 i don't know how anybody could feel one way or the other confidently. I'm just catching up since I still don't have power but from what I've seen the euro, although still a miss, made some pretty major concessions to the GFS last night. I hope we see a distinct north trend today. IMO it's now or never today as the players on the field should be sampled by 00z tonight. I'm leaning right now on a scraping blow similar to 1/30/18 which won't do much since it is mid march. But since blocking is not nearly as strong as it was then, I won 't be surprised if it ends up further north than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Im not all that thrilled with this one. Even if it does come further north all guidance is showing this is a far less amped up storm. With it falling during daylight hours I see this as mostly a white rain event if it does creep further north. Very low (if any) impact for our area. The majority of the energy shoots offshore with the initial wave and the energy on the backside coming through is too late to give us much more then some white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 My guess before seeing the 12z suite is that this is a miss for us. Being reliant on a full phase to get up the coast to us is generally a losing proposition. Low qpf and rates in March means minimal impact and likely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIIFolesMVP Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/972117467614142466 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Im not all that thrilled with this one. Even if it does come further north all guidance is showing this is a far less amped up storm. With it falling during daylight hours I see this as mostly a white rain event if it does creep further north. Very low (if any) impact for our area. The majority of the energy shoots offshore with the initial wave and the energy on the backside coming through is too late to give us much more then some white rain.My BK is reopening in a few days.....looking forward to devouring a Whopper in your name at that time! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 My guess before seeing the 12z suite is that this is a miss for us. Being reliant on a full phase to get up the coast to us is generally a losing proposition. Low qpf and rates in March means minimal impact and likely rain. Dont look now but the NAM showed massive changes at h5 and tries to keep primary in tact much long, farther N punching it into the Tenn Valley and even lower OV 42-54 hrs. Big shift N and W on this model. Waits for the ull to catch up. Im more focused short range nuances with this threat (60 hours and under) as opposed to final outcome. Too much variability and final solutions on table for confident medium range results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 THIS is a big short term change and maybe something to consider with energy re-emerging from sparse data regions and finally just starting to get sampled. Could be wrong too but I think it is certainly of importance to note: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 3k 12z nam @ 60 looks identical to those GFS crush jobs. great trends so far at 12z we are so close to a big storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3k 12z nam @ 60 looks identical to those GFS crush jobs. great trends so far at 12z we are so close to a big storm...NAM gets primary to KY area. Other 12z models starting to hold primary longer and drive it farther N. 50/50 moving out after retrograde and into a better position with less of a suppression influence on coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: THIS is a big short term change and maybe something to consider with energy re-emerging from sparse data regions and finally just starting to get sampled. Could be wrong too but I think it is certainly of importance to note: What would happen here if we could get that other closed low on the MN/SD border to drop down into the one in the OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 1 hour ago, hazwoper said: Im not all that thrilled with this one. Even if it does come further north all guidance is showing this is a far less amped up storm. With it falling during daylight hours I see this as mostly a white rain event if it does creep further north. Very low (if any) impact for our area. The majority of the energy shoots offshore with the initial wave and the energy on the backside coming through is too late to give us much more then some white rain. My BK is reopening in a few days.....looking forward to devouring a Whopper in your name at that time! ;-) HAZWOPER is an acronym which stands for Hazardous Waste Operations and Emergency Response. HAZWOPERtraining is covered under OSHA standard 29 CFR Part 1910.120. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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