The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I've been without power since yesterday afternoon so admittedly I do not have too much to say other than I bet this comes north in the coming days for reasons that Ralph detailed in the other thread. Gonna try and catch up with everything at work today so I have a better idea how I feel about this threat. Figured I would start the thread though since we've been doing well with me doing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 One thing I don't like about the set up is how often do we see 3 major coastal storms in the span of 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIIFolesMVP Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 CrankyWX not too keen on this at all. Says enviro played out and most likely just a minor event sliding off coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Well, I realize we dont have a ton of guidance on our side verbatim, but there are enough clues that it wont take a whole heck of alot of timing changes at h5 to phase energy in and bring this N.....even if just the ULL pass over us after the main lp. As we saw with yesterdays storm, the SE PA jackpot on guidance 18 hours prior became NNJ jackpot area. That is a 150 mile or so swing in only 18 hours. This isnt really a stable mid winter type of pattern. There is a ton of volatility during seasonal transition and expect large swings and jumps on any model suite even with short lead times. Ens indiv lp plot maps show that with lp centers all over the place on Sunday-Monday. Very little consensus. I admittedly have low confidence in this one irt how it evolves. Just gotta continue tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Nao flip looks delayed = this may not be our Archambault event after all? Not necessarily a horrible thing if the pattern/cold can reload before the flip. Jury still out on this but a neg NAO ridge hanging around keeping the wintry pattern going for another 7-10 days wouldnt be a bad thing. Eta: would make sense with cranky guy saying weaker system as atmospheric energy is spent attm ie weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 And right on cue, NAM at 500mb very close to a full phase bomb coming N. Misses the phase obviously and heads off the coast at 84 but I will take my chances with a strengthening low sitting at Hatteras with energy digging into trof. Like I said, not quite there and not confident we get there but closer than alot of folks think. Another go big or home, all or nothing type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: And right on cue, NAM at 500mb very close to a full phase bomb coming N. Misses the phase obviously and heads off the coast at 84 but I will take my chances with a strengthening low sitting at Hatteras with energy digging into trof. Like I said, not quite there and not confident we get there but closer than alot of folks think. Another go big or home, all or nothing type of thing. With the PNA being positive, this storm will most likely trend northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 With the PNA being positive, this storm will most likely trend northwardThats one trend I am seeing is the increased amplification of the PNA ridge. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Again, not a horrible place to be 4 days out. Trends are not bad as many are suggesting. I know its the ICON but there is support for this look. Again, I will take my chances any day of the week with a strengthening lp West of or near Hatteras with a close phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 And at 93hrs boom. Really close....wont take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Quick loop of 12z gfs op during the important panels. Clearly turning the corner look here. H5 even closer now to a big phased system. Doesnt quite get their but painstakingly close. Whether the trends continue, who knows? I feel they will and parts of the region will get hit by this. Confidence is still admittedly low on final outcome/track but I dont mind where we are at 4 days out AT ALL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 I like where we are at the moment as well. If this comes back north, temps shouldn't be an issue save for maybe the coast. Trends on both GFS and NAM at 12z are very good and so so so close to a full phase. Need the NW trends to continue. If we keep ticking like that up to the event SE PA would be firmly in the hit zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 i also like that the GFS slowed things down from 6z. timing on this is very important and I feel the slower this develops the better chances are for a full phase and for this to come north. verbatim though on the 12z gfs SNJ does pretty good...3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Tries for a capture/stall off the DelMarVa as the ULL catches up. Minor timing changes at h5 are going to yield big changes at the surface here. Could still go either way between a widespread SECS event DC-BOS or a grazer to our South. Still leaning towards adjustments North but like I said, lower confidence than normal as it wont take much to hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: With the PNA being positive, this storm will most likely trend northward Thats one trend I am seeing is the increased amplification of the PNA ridge. Interesting. Signal looks miller A maybe with a norlun structure (trends to happen with an amped up PNA ridge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Signal looks miller A maybe with a norlun structure (trends to happen with an amped up PNA ridge)Not sure I agree. Definitely looks like a primary near Tennessee, triple point, and a redeveloping coastal low unless Im misreading it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Losing confidence on this one for a PA special, but I think PHL definitely gets in on the action, at worst, after the low transfers and starts its coastal progression. Seems to eject the near 50/50 low just a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This reminds me of the lead up to 2/6/10 in some ways. That storm had big blocking up top with a very strong 50/50 feature as well. About 4-5 days out that storm was progged as a VA special as the flow up top was too strong and suppressive. Then gradually the forecast blocking and strength of the 50/50 weakened just enough for the storm to creep north and hit DE/SEPA/SNJ. But it still hit a brick wall and mostly missed NYC and NE. I am in far northern DE and we sat under the CCB for that storm for hours. Ended up with 29". Not saying those numbers will happen here but this does seem to be a moisture laden storm and I do think it will move north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 Now Ensembles are not as useful this close but it is discouraging that the GEFS shifted massively south at 12z and the 12z UK met is a complete whiff. I wouldn't expect the euro to budge at all and after scoring the coup yesterday, it may be the model to hug in this pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 31 minutes ago, bluehens said: This reminds me of the lead up to 2/6/10 in some ways. That storm had big blocking up top with a very strong 50/50 feature as well. About 4-5 days out that storm was progged as a VA special as the flow up top was too strong and suppressive. Then gradually the forecast blocking and strength of the 50/50 weakened just enough for the storm to creep north and hit DE/SEPA/SNJ. But it still hit a brick wall and mostly missed NYC and NE. I am in far northern DE and we sat under the CCB for that storm for hours. Ended up with 29". Not saying those numbers will happen here but this does seem to be a moisture laden storm and I do think it will move north some. reminds me more of 1/30/10... we forget it because of what followed but that was a painful miss for all besides SNJ and Delaware getting 3-6/4-8". The way trends have gone over 12z as a whole, that is where I am leaning at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This reminds me of the lead up to 2/6/10 in some ways. That storm had big blocking up top with a very strong 50/50 feature as well. About 4-5 days out that storm was progged as a VA special as the flow up top was too strong and suppressive. Then gradually the forecast blocking and strength of the 50/50 weakened just enough for the storm to creep north and hit DE/SEPA/SNJ. But it still hit a brick wall and mostly missed NYC and NE. I am in far northern DE and we sat under the CCB for that storm for hours. Ended up with 29". Not saying those numbers will happen here but this does seem to be a moisture laden storm and I do think it will move north some.Probably need to start seeing more significant adjustments by 0z. Not a highly confident look attm but still some time to pull it off. GEFS took a notable jump south oddly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Well according to the MA forum it might be time to stick a fork in this one. New Euro run awful but in line with all the other models as far as no impact to us with this storm. Clear trend the wrong way the past 24 hours. Still time but things look bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 looks like my thread starting magic has ran out... still time on this though I wouldn't say it is dead until tomorrow at 12z earliest. We saw huge swings inside 48 hours with just this last event. Even the euro which is a whiff is still not far from a big storm. odds are against it right now but I refuse to throw in the towel until tomorrow. i'm glad we got our blockbuster yesterday and after losing power for 24 hours plus twice in one week, i won't be upset if this is a miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Well according to the MA forum it might be time to stick a fork in this one. New Euro run awful but in line with all the other models as far as no impact to us with this storm. Clear trend the wrong way the past 24 hours. Still time but things look bleak.DT says game on MD, VA, DE, S PA, S NJ. Says he is not folding based on 12z guidance as pattern supports SECS in those mentioned areas. We have that and the Iceman thread-starter going for us :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 We saw huge swings inside 18 hours with just this last event. Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Saw on the MA thread that both 1/30/2010 and 2/6/2010 along with the blizzard of '16 are in like the top 6 analogs for the upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 hours ago, bluehens said: Well according to the MA forum it might be time to stick a fork in this one. New Euro run awful but in line with all the other models as far as no impact to us with this storm. Clear trend the wrong way the past 24 hours. Still time but things look bleak. DT says game on MD, VA, DE, S PA, S NJ. Says he is not folding based on 12z guidance as pattern supports SECS in those mentioned areas. We have that and the Iceman thread-starter going for us :-) We just saw how things can change a lot in 48 hours. So I am still interested. BTW, what exactly is the ICON model? Keep seeing it mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 27 minutes ago, mattinpa said: We just saw how things can change a lot in 48 hours. So I am still interested. BTW, what exactly is the ICON model? Keep seeing it mentioned. It's the German global model. It blows but it's good for keeping the hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 hours ago, bluehens said: Well according to the MA forum it might be time to stick a fork in this one. New Euro run awful but in line with all the other models as far as no impact to us with this storm. Clear trend the wrong way the past 24 hours. Still time but things look bleak. DT says game on MD, VA, DE, S PA, S NJ. Says he is not folding based on 12z guidance as pattern supports SECS in those mentioned areas. We have that and the Iceman thread-starter going for us :-) Is this from his YouTube video, cause from what I got out if it was there was the probability of snow for the lower Mid Atlantic and maybe PHL. I didn't hear anything about a SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Although the NAM and GFS are certainly not the best model guidance out there, I'd encourage anyone to compare the 500mb maps of the GFS and the NAM out to hour 84. Look at how the GFS phases the northern shortwave with the southern wave and cuts off. The NAM on the other hand completely leaves that northern energy separate in Arkansas/Louisiana, has the initial southern energy escape east (seen east of Virginia well off the coast), and has more energy from the north (North of Great Lakes) trying to drop down at a much sharper N-S orientation and pretty fast at that. The above maps are for the same time. I think the differences between them speak volumes that we aren't close to knowing what's going to happen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.