Vice-Regent Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looking at h5 on the GEFS it seems the Canadian maritimes low get out quicker than the 12z did. Also seems like a stronger vort down south. I would think that would argue for a more north track. The surface went the other direction though. Does anyone see what would be causing the surface to take a step back? Probably the angle of the PV is slightly more blocky versus being west of the shortwave. Complex setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 @Ian I felt the way I do about my concerns before the 18z run. But I should remember some freak out over every good of bad thing they see and explain. I still think this is the best setup we have had since 2016. Of course we haven't had a warning event since then either so how much is that saying. But I do think this is a good shot. But I have reservations that keep me from going all in and thinking the big storm option is likely. It's very possible and a high possibility imo. But I have more reservations now then I did 5 days before the dec 2009 or feb 2010 or Jan 2016 HECS events. Those instances were somewhat similar on the macro level globally but the flow acros eastern Conus was slightly less suppressive imo. Plus the stj was kicking those instances. I trusted we would get a healthy wave that could bully things a bit and cause enough ridging in front to start the chain reaction we need for an amplified solution. Now those are the 3 best blocking pattern storms since 1996 so saying I think this setup is slightly less favorable then those isn't that bad either. Sometimes when I say a positive thing it's as if I just guaranteed snow and when I say I have a fear or reservation it means I threw in the towel. I still like this setup. I'm just not ready to go all in like i was in those other instances from range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ian said: Meanwhile 18z GEFS looks better overall lol op 18z gfs freakouts I like your answer better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 160 posts since I checked in last...what did the gfs do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I love when two professional look at the same model and come up with two opposite opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eh, I'm not sure I'd agree with that. 18z shifted the main QPF shield south and east from 12z. ETA: It's actually a significant step the wrong way looking closer. I think Ian might be comparing the gefs to the op and your comparing it to the 12z gefs which is what I would do for trends. That's the only think I can think of to explain his comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ian I felt the way I do about my concerns before the 18z run. But I should remember some freak out over every good of bad thing they see and explain. I still think this is the best setup we have had since 2016. Of course we haven't had a warning event since then either so how much is that saying. But I do think this is a good shot. But I have reservations that keep me from going all in and thinking the big storm option is likely. It's very possible and a high possibility imo. But I have more reservations now then I did 5 days before the dec 2009 or feb 2010 or Jan 2016 HECS events. Those instances were somewhat similar on the macro level globally but the flow acros eastern Conus was slightly less suppressive imo. Plus the stj was kicking those instances. I trusted we would get a healthy wave that could bully things a bit and cause enough ridging in front to start the chain reaction we need for an amplified solution. Now those are the 3 best blocking pattern storms since 1996 so saying I think this setup is slightly less favorable then those isn't that bad either. Sometimes when I say a positive thing it's as if I just guaranteed snow and when I say I have a fear or reservation it means I threw in the towel. I still like this setup. I'm just not ready to go all in like i was in those other instances from range. So what you’re saying is that we’re likely to at least get a nice warning level event, but a 10”+ KU will require a lot of luck with this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: I love when two professional look at the same model and come up with two opposite opinions It's probably group think in play but half the gefs members miss south now. If this was 72 hours out I would see the writing on the wall but we're still a good 48 hours at least from the models getting the major pieces right. Especially the departing low/confluence. 0z may push a few over the ledge me thinks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 of 22 good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 50 50 toss up. Where's new data coming in we'll see if it's a trend or just a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 like nine complete misses with the 18z GEFS...better hope this doesn't turn into a trend that continues at 0z. 18z navgem has some healthy rain showers for...florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looking at h5 on the GEFS it seems the Canadian maritimes low get out quicker than the 12z did. Also seems like a stronger vort down south. I would think that would argue for a more north track. The surface went the other direction though. Does anyone see what would be causing the surface to take a step back? I'm not doing that deep a dive into the gefs members but the op went south because it ejected the southern wave weaker and south of 12z. That minor difference set off a domino effect. Or more accurately it failed to set off the domino effect we needed that 12z did. The flow is really flat ahead of this. If the wave is strong enough and north enough initially to force some ridging in front...it has to reach a critical tipping point where the ridging it causes in front pumping heights ahead slows it down enough and it's like a feedback loop. Slows more time to cause more ridging. More ridging more amplified. More amplified causes more slowing and ridging...and the chain reaction we want starts. At that point it's likely to pull the northern stream in and phase. But if the wave is too weak to trigger that chain reaction it simply slides east under the flow without gaining any north movement until it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Lol, the GFS has no chill... it's either a complete miss or a crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 We wont know until our storm is over an area with better sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The gefs is kinda ji-ish. Its a hecs or nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not doing that deep a dive into the gefs members but the op went south because it ejected the southern wave weaker and south of 12z. That minor difference set off a domino effect. Or more accurately it failed to set off the domino effect we needed that 12z did. The flow is really flat ahead of this. If the wave is strong enough and north enough initially to force some ridging in front...it has to reach a critical tipping point where the ridging it causes in front pumping heights ahead slows it down enough and it's like a feedback loop. Slows more time to cause more ridging. More ridging more amplified. More amplified causes more slowing and ridging...and the chain reaction we want starts. At that point it's likely to pull the northern stream in and phase. But if the wave is too weak to trigger that chain reaction it simply slides east under the flow without gaining any north movement until it's too late. When do ya think we'll have a better idea of how strong the wave will be? Possibly Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: So what you’re saying is that we’re likely to at least get a nice warning level event, but a 10”+ KU will require a lot of luck with this setup? Not exactly. Although I do think expecting more then 10" mid march is dangerous. Light snow won't stick. Ratios will be low. A storm that was 20" in January will be 12" now. But that's another conversation. I think this is kind of all or nothing. The flow is more suppressive then I would like. But not so much so that it can't work. But I don't think a weak wave can get it done. Read my post above about the chain reaction we need. A weak storm won't set that off and will slide east south of is imo. I guess where I am now is thinking this has a 40% chance of being strong enough to amplify and climb enough to give us a 12z gfs UK solution. And a 60% chance we get what the euro and 18z gfs shows. If I had to put it into numbers. But before people freak out a 40% chance of a mecs or better level event at day 5 is super high. But if I had to bet money right now I would side with the less amplified solutions. Slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: The gefs is kinda ji-ish. Its a hecs or nothing Yep it is. Makes sense. Either the wave ejecting is amplified enough to buckle the flow some and start the dominoes falling or it's not. If it's not it's gonna miss the phase and be a west to east southern slider. If it does it's gonna end up a phased monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 It's not like a miss doesn't have any support. ICON/NAVGEM/CMC all support a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, mappy said: 160 posts since I checked in last...what did the gfs do? it did what models do 100 hours out...flip flop. onto 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 40% big snowstorm is more than enough for meAt least winter tried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: When do ya think we'll have a better idea of how strong the wave will be? Possibly Friday? My guess is sometime in the next 36 hours we will see a consensus form. because the key imo is something that's only 72 hours away I doubt it's too much longer. I'm ok if they consensus is slightly south. Say a Fredericksburg jackpot with decent precip across D.C. and my area fringed. That will probably bleed north a bit come gametime. But if the consensus ends up being along the Va Nc border or worse were in trouble imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, Ji said: 26 minutes ago, supernovasky said: 50 50 toss up. Where's new data coming in we'll see if it's a trend or just a blip At a crossroads on the 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: It's not like a miss doesn't have any support. ICON/NAVGEM/CMC all support a complete miss. Icon is ironic. It has the best NS vort but it's stj wave is too weak and way out in front so it has nothing to work with. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 One of the most disastrous runs in the history of this weather forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 At a crossroads on the 0z?No. A crossroad is when you have good run and are ready to take it to the next level or stay the same ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I think 18z GGEM looks better at the h5 level? Or am I mistaken? When looking at hr 84 that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon is ironic. It has the best NS vort but it's stj wave is too weak and way out in front so it has nothing to work with. Lol Yep. I was saying earlier today we need either a full phase early or the strongest southern vort we can get. If I had to bet money I think we still see snow out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: One of the most disastrous runs in the history of this weather forum Nah, way to much lead time. Boxing day was perfectly timed to ruin Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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