ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Happy hour GFS giveth, happy hour GFS taketh away. We're getting pretty close in and still seeing a lot of variability. Both tier 1 models have the storm, we just need it to nudge a little north and we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I need @Bob Chill to tell me everything’s gonna be ok! Bob knows better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 990 at obx and no precip in dc...what? Yeah.. if that doesn't do the trick.. i really don't know what will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 You know when you look at it, it's not a huge difference between last run and this one. It only takes a little variability to get us back to crushjob land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=everybody+panic+will+ferrell&&view=detail&mid=B3FCA821CC68B160834BB3FCA821CC68B160834B&&FORM=VDRVRV This sums up the 18z GFS quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: You know when you look at it, it's not a huge difference between last run and this one. It only takes a little variability to get us back to crushjob land. In most other situations we would just call this noise. But when it takes away 20 inches of snow its really loud noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: These minor changes take me from hecs to whiff to mecs to secs to wiff to hecs. Awful hobby The northern stream flow is actually very suppressive. And the vort digging in isn't some super impressive digging trough. The only runs that work are ones that eject a really strong system early on that then bullies the setup. It's amped enough to pump more ridging in front, slow down, and north enough then to get caught and phase. You know if it's a good run or not by 72 hours because weak ejecting means no chance. There isn't some way for it to recover and amplify later. If it misses the boat and starts south it's getting squashed in that flow. The block is a little south of perfect. The 50/50 holds a bit too long. Without the ridging ahead of a STRONG system the flow is flat or even worse then flat. We are totally relying on a strong enough and north enough southern system here to make this work. Absent that this will fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Every single global model today, and most ensembles gave us all snow for next week, and some people are jumping off the ledge for the 18z GFS? I know we are all nervous, but we know this happens. Every single storm I also suspect that things won’t be set in stone until the storm up north is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Below is 12z compared to 6z. It's still a moisture bomb. We just need it 200 miles north of where it is on the GFS. With it still 4.5 days out i like where we are. It's not like it's a weak 1010 mb low scooting south of us How many times have we seen a north trend in the final 48 to 72 hours that puts us out of the game. Generally blocking/confluence is modeled too strong, far out in time hence the north trend. Doesnt mean it is this time but if I needed a trend i would prefer this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The northern stream flow is actually very suppressive. And the vort digging in isn't some super impressive digging trough. The only runs that work are ones that eject a really strong system early on that then bullies the setup. It's amped enough to pump more ridging in front, slow down, and north enough then to get caught and phase. You know if it's a good run or not by 72 hours because weak ejecting means no chance. There isn't some way for it to recover and amplify later. If it misses the boat and starts south it's getting squashed in that flow. The block is a little south of perfect. The 50/50 holds a bit too long. Without the ridging ahead of a STRONG system the flow is flat or even worse then flat. We are totally relying on a strong enough and north enough southern system here to make this work. Absent that this will fail. Doesn't come easy, does it? I'm wondering when we can expect to have at least that element sorted out...(or will we have to sweat suppression until Sunday? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, supernovasky said: You know when you look at it, it's not a huge difference between last run and this one. It only takes a little variability to get us back to crushjob land. A 100mi shift of a comparably strong storm at D5 is what everyone is freaking out about? This was well within a reasonable error bar at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: A 100mi shift of a comparably strong storm at D5 is what everyone is freaking out about? This was well within a reasonable error bar at this range. I like where we sit 5 days out. Central VA jackpot 5 days out is money for us ussually with a strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: I like where we sit 5 days out. Central VA jackpot 5 days out is money for us ussually with a strong storm. Well... it hasn't been the last few times... but I keep hearing this, lol. But seriously, this isn't a wipe of the storm where suddenly we're totally out of it. It's an adjustment south. For all we know we'll get an adjustment north next run. This seems like the type of storm where a difference of 100 miles will make or break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 on the bright side euro did make a big trend north. gfs might have been too amped before. the h5 map does look a little suspect for a noreaster unless this thing slows down and whatever confluence, 50/50 low diminishes. i still kinda like the idea of having a sizable west to east low riding under us. i don't think we're out by any stretch, but a hecs might be wishful thinking for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, supernovasky said: Well... it hasn't been the last few times... but I keep hearing this, lol. But seriously, this isn't a wipe of the storm where suddenly we're totally out of it. It's an adjustment south. For all we know we'll get an adjustment north next run. This seems like the type of storm where a difference of 100 miles will make or break. Which means no model run is safe until 48 hours (at least)...lol Nerves, nerves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A 100mi shift of a comparably strong storm at D5 is what everyone is freaking out about? This was well within a reasonable error bar at this range. My reservations have nothing to do with the 18z gfs. I'm concerned that looking at the setup the flow is super flat, the block is south of where I want, and the northern stream system digging that we are relying to phase is less than uber. So we're left relying on an amped enough stj system to get it done and that has been trending weaker all winter from range. I would prefer there be more wiggle room. An amplified enough trough that very minor fluctuations in the wave ejecting don't matter so much. But im very open to being convinced these concerns aren't legit. If you think I'm overly pessimistic about this setup please tell me because I don't mind being cheered up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A 100mi shift of a comparably strong storm at D5 is what everyone is freaking out about? This was well within a reasonable error bar at this range. I think the panic comes from watching yet another storm skip around the mid-atlantic and crush NJ on north (going on right now). 2 years with no warning criteria can get to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Ruined again by that unrelenting cold blob from hell. Suppression depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Well... it hasn't been the last few times... but I keep hearing this, lol. But seriously, this isn't a wipe of the storm where suddenly we're totally out of it. It's an adjustment south. For all we know we'll get an adjustment north next run. This seems like the type of storm where a difference of 100 miles will make or break. That is mostly a leftover assumption from a time in the 90s and 2000s when the gfs had a bad cold and thus south bias with storms. That's not as true anymore. The trend is North most often still but not to the extend it once was. You no longer want to see NC and southern VA jack 4 days out. A little south is good. Way south ehh. This is just one run of one op so I'm not saying this applies to now. the models are still jumpy. But at some point in the next 24-36 hours I bet we reach some consensus. When that happens I want it to be a bullseye for D.C. or slightly south. Give it some room to come north. But I don't want to start seeing things converge on a va/Nc border jack. We've seen that plenty the last few years and no it typically hasn't trended north enough. It trends just enough to tease us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My reservations have nothing to do with the 18z gfs. I'm concerned that looking at the setup the flow is super flat, the block is south of where I want, and the northern stream system digging that we are relying to phase is less than uber. So we're left relying on an amped enough stj system to get it done and that has been trending weaker all winter from range. I would prefer there be more wiggle room. An amplified enough trough that very minor fluctuations in the wave ejecting don't matter so much. But im very open to being convinced these concerns aren't legit. If you think I'm overly pessimistic about this setup please tell me because I don't mind being cheered up lol. Is there room for the "setup flow" to trend better? Or is that kinda set? Hope not...because if we gotta rely on the strength of any system the way this winter has gone...we won't be able to breathe easy for awhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My reservations have nothing to do with the 18z gfs. I'm concerned that looking at the setup the flow is super flat, the block is south of where I want, and the northern stream system digging that we are relying to phase is less than uber. So we're left relying on an amped enough stj system to get it done and that has been trending weaker all winter from range. I would prefer there be more wiggle room. An amplified enough trough that very minor fluctuations in the wave ejecting don't matter so much. But im very open to being convinced these concerns aren't legit. If you think I'm overly pessimistic about this setup please tell me because I don't mind being cheered up lol. I hear ya.and with everything else have a weaker southern vort except for the ukie you have Valid concerns. But I always assume the blocking will actually be weaker than modeled out in range. I've been disappointed many time over the years with the rug being pulled out because of a north trend inside of 72 hours. I know you know all of this already. I just think a little less blocking and this thing will crawl up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Ruined again by that unrelenting cold blob from hell. Suppression depression. Where is your damn global warming when we need it??? Useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where is your damn global warming when we need it??? Useless Keep up the good work. We can make it work eventually. Bob Chill is my new investor in SUVs. Isn't this like the 5th time you guys got shut down by the PV and 2 out of those 5 times I scored big. I don't want it like that but it's out of my control. I've crashed hard on these last two events, just snow TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 LWX chose to keep the "Code Green" east of the Blue Ridge for their Winter Storm Threat update this evening. Code Yellow remains west for Sunday 7am - Monday 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Meanwhile 18z GEFS looks better overall lol op 18z gfs freakouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ian said: Meanwhile 18z GEFS looks better overall lol op 18z gfs freakouts That should restore our sanity at least until the NAM run shows a tropical storm off Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ian said: Meanwhile 18z GEFS looks better overall lol op 18z gfs freakouts Does it? Can’t look for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ian said: Meanwhile 18z GEFS looks better overall lol op 18z gfs freakouts Eh, I'm not sure I'd agree with that. 18z shifted the main QPF shield south and east from 12z. ETA: It's actually a significant step the wrong way looking closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eh, I'm not sure I'd agree with that. 18z shifted the main QPF shield south and east from 12z. Fight! Fight! Fight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looking at h5 on the GEFS it seems the Canadian maritimes low get out quicker than the 12z did. Also seems like a stronger vort down south. I would think that would argue for a more north track. The surface went the other direction though. Does anyone see what would be causing the surface to take a step back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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