Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: What do we do now? Euro improves. GFS falls back. Neither are hits for us. Stay the course! This run, though still a miss for now, is the furthest north the EURO has ever been...keeps the door open for a continued north trend and a possibility of it caving to the GFS. Still time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 its actually not awful, its just too late for us. The NS does get behind the SS and take hold, enough to pull it west towards the BM. Need that to happen sooner for us to get in the game. But its a big improvement to the off the southern coast slider 00z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Stay the course! This run, though still a miss for now, is the furthest north the EURO has ever been...keeps the door open for a continued north trend and a possibility of it caving to the GFS. Still time... Yes. In 12 hours the northern end of the precip shield moved from Petersburg VA to my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: that was a problem. A compromise would screw us. Its like Miller C Or a Miller F-U, if we're getting screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Yes. In 12 hours the northern end of the precip shield moved from Petersburg VA to my backyard. Always follow the wise Deck Pic... he knows his stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Timing of how the euro tracks the low across the southern U.S. has had quite a bit of variance over the last few runs. What's interesting is the track has been similar, but timing changes by several hours. Today's coastal over eastern GA was over Bermuda yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Flatter ridge out west would speed up the SS vort to get it a bit ahead of the NS. If then the ridge build in fast after that then that lets the NS vort drop in behind which can get the trough to go more neg and force the coastal up the coast instead of out and keep it closer to the coast. Or kinds like that. I word salad'd this and butchered atmospheric physics to explain things in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 So last four runs of the EURO go from a storm, to a weak wave that slides off the coast, to a slightly stronger weak wave that slides off the coast, to just missed the phase. And people are thinking we're quickly running of time? Who hear thinks at this point that the model's are going to stop right here and hold for the next 72 hrs? Now who thinks after the last 24 hrs they will trend back to a suppressed weak wave that goes OTS? Bottom line is that I am totally fine with where we stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Always follow the wise Deck Pic... he knows his stuff Thanks, but all I am doing is stating a fact. The northern extent of the measurable precip shield moved 150 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, H2O said: Flatter ridge out west would speed up the SS vort to get it a bit ahead of the NS. If then the ridge build in fast after that then that lets the NS vort drop in behind which can get the trough to go more neg and force the coastal up the coast instead of out and keep it closer to the coast. Or kinds like that. I word salad'd this and butchered atmospheric physics to explain things in my head. hahaha Flatter west ridge = faster southern stream vort = northern stream vort gets behind allowing for it to grab, pulling southern stream west = us having a higher chance for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51066-march-11-12-storm-model-discussion-storm-mode/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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