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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

What do we do now?  Euro improves.  GFS falls back.  Neither are hits for us.  

Stay the course! This run, though still a miss for now, is the furthest north the EURO has ever been...keeps the door open for a continued north trend and a possibility of it caving to the GFS. Still time...

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its actually not awful, its just too late for us. The NS does get behind the SS and take hold, enough to pull it west towards the BM. Need that to happen sooner for us to get in the game. But its a big improvement to the off the southern coast slider 00z was. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Stay the course! This run, though still a miss for now, is the furthest north the EURO has ever been...keeps the door open for a continued north trend and a possibility of it caving to the GFS. Still time...

Yes.  In 12 hours the northern end of the precip shield moved from Petersburg VA to my backyard.  

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Flatter ridge out west would speed up the SS vort to get it a bit ahead of the NS.  If then the ridge build in fast after that then that lets the NS vort drop in behind which can get the trough to go more neg and force the coastal up the coast instead of out and keep it closer to the coast.

 

Or kinds like that.  I word salad'd this and butchered atmospheric physics to explain things in my head.

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So last four runs of the EURO go from a storm, to a weak wave that slides off the coast, to a slightly stronger weak wave that slides off the coast, to just missed the phase. And people are thinking we're quickly running of time? Who hear thinks at this point that the model's are going to stop right here and hold for the next 72 hrs? Now who thinks after the last 24 hrs they will trend back to a suppressed weak wave that goes OTS? Bottom line is that I am totally fine with where we stand. 

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

Flatter ridge out west would speed up the SS vort to get it a bit ahead of the NS.  If then the ridge build in fast after that then that lets the NS vort drop in behind which can get the trough to go more neg and force the coastal up the coast instead of out and keep it closer to the coast.

 

Or kinds like that.  I word salad'd this and butchered atmospheric physics to explain things in my head.

hahaha

Flatter west ridge = faster southern stream vort = northern stream vort gets behind allowing for it to grab, pulling southern stream west = us having a higher chance for snow

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