87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Does it also help that there's no high pressure to the north? . Could also be some of that confluence drying out the northern part of the system. It really is starting to feel like a thread the needle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Saw the Ukie on twitter. Can't post since I'm on mobile, but looks like 0.4-0.5 qpf for D.C. Don't know if this is all snow or not .Edit: didn't see Mappy's post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: That’s a little better than I thought. Thanks for posting. I assumed it would be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 RGEM ensemble mean snowfall through 72. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, mappy said: Good: it came way north bad: I don't like the look of a suppression then late phase and hook up the coast. That's a typical Nina way to screw us over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Good: it came way north bad: I don't like the look of a suppression then late phase and hook up the coast. That's a typical Nina way to screw us over. At least SNE gets nailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 RGEM ensemble mean snowfall through 72. Not bad.That's actually really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: RGEM ensemble mean snowfall through 72. Not bad. Is that inches or cm or mm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Is that inches or cm or mm? mm liquid equivalent. I just fixed the original post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 the RGEM and the SREFS and the 3k nam appear to be taking the low up the apps before a transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good: it came way north bad: I don't like the look of a suppression then late phase and hook up the coast. That's a typical Nina way to screw us over. Has that semi-Boxing Day look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good: it came way north bad: I don't like the look of a suppression then late phase and hook up the coast. That's a typical Nina way to screw us over. Better than its 00z run. I will take 0.4-0.5 frozen (hopefully) QPF from this run and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good: it came way north bad: I don't like the look of a suppression then late phase and hook up the coast. That's a typical Nina way to screw us over. 0.1 for us in March won't do a lot. but at least it came north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 WPC discussion tosses 12z GFS. Says it’s less likely to verify. CMC more consistent. With that in mind and seeing the UK coming north and likely a formidable coastal storm given high QPF from central VA to Cape Cod...I think we are still in this. Honestly. Players on the field, just not in sync yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good: it came way north bad: I don't like the look of a suppression then late phase and hook up the coast. That's a typical Nina way to screw us over. So that look drives the primary into WV then transfers over is and sends the low northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Better than its 00z run. I will take 0.4-0.5 frozen (hopefully) QPF from this run and like it Yep, I’m good with a 2-4” areawide, grass coverer. Would be an acceptable way to end winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Before this very important Euro comes out, can everyone please take a deep breath. Post only if you think you have useful information, and go to banter if you need to meltdown. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 26 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I'm in agreement but when do they make a move. I'm not one who panics but I really thought we would see a better 12z suite. The 12z suite as a whole wasn't terrible, imo. Seems like we saw a few more positive steps with some models than negative ones...fasten your seatbelts, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Can't post it since I'm on mobile, but the Canadian ensembles were pretty sweet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Through 72hrs on the 12z JMA it is way south. Gives most of Virginia a trace of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 GEPS has been consistently getting better over the last several runs, and the MSLP off OBX has barely budged in the last 2 days. First some caveats: we're getting to the point at which the global ops start outperforming ensembles, and there's probably a lot of rain in here. But today's GEPS run was the best of them all. Almost certainly the best of the winter. Only 3/21 members give me less than 1". I can't figure out how to create a GEPS mean snowfall map, so... enjoy. (The above are all through 12z on 03/13) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Through 72hrs on the 12z JMA it is way south. Gives most of Virginia a trace of precip. the JMA has never been close..like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, cae said: GEPS has been consistently getting better over the last several runs, and the MSLP off OBX has barely budged in the last 2 days. First some caveats: we're getting to the point at which the global ops start outperforming ensembles, and there's probably a lot of rain in here. But today's GEPS run was the best of them all. Almost certainly the best of the winter. Only 3/21 members give me less than 1". I can't figure out how to create a GEPS mean snowfall map, so... enjoy. (The above are all through 12z on 03/13) Gotta love the member 1 that gives the Winchester area 3-4 feet and the rest of the nw burbs 2-3 feet. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I would guess that GEPS member #1 would be a lot of NW VA fantasy run lol @cae sorry if this has been asked already, but where do you get that? Can I get the link for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Can't post it since I'm on mobile, but the Canadian ensembles were pretty sweet. . probably the best two panels for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I would guess that GEPS member #1 would be a lot of NW VA fantasy run lol @cae sorry if this has been asked already, but where do you get that? Can I get the link for it? he has been making them himself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, mappy said: he has been making them himself Ah, thank you for letting me know. And thank you for posting the two images of the CMC ENS above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: I would guess that GEPS member #1 would be a lot of NW VA fantasy run lol @cae sorry if this has been asked already, but where do you get that? Can I get the link for it? http://dd.weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/grib2/raw 1 minute ago, mappy said: he has been making them himself Right. I've been using Panoply. Not too hard once you get the hang of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Ah, thank you for letting me know. And thank you for posting the two images of the CMC ENS above welcome 1 minute ago, cae said: http://dd.weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/grib2/raw Right. I've been using Panoply. Not too hard once you get the hang of it. oh, nice you do have a link to them. wasn't sure. but i knew you were making them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 ensembles have been sweet for this storm quite a bit on the GGEM but who cares.....i need to see it on the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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