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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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Just now, yoda said:

Storm is already gone by then

yea just wondering if that's acting as a bit of a kicker.  i'm grasping for reasons why a storm in mid-march would be suppressed lol.  we're close enough to where it's worth looking at the rest of the runs today.

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3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

What are you all going to do if the Euro comes in and shows a HECS 12+ for DC

That seems nearly impossible since we hardly see big swings on the Euro. I don’t see where it’s that much chaos.  CMC looks similar to the 12z GFS.  Euro hasn’t liked this for a while.  Now if on the off chance Euro showed an amped bomb then yes that is chaos. But who thinks that is likely.  

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That seems nearly impossible since we hardly see big swings on the Euro. I don’t see where it’s that much chaos.  CMC looks similar to the 12z GFS.  Euro hasn’t liked this for a while.  Now if on the off chance Euro showed an amped bomb then yes that is chaos. But who thinks that is likely.  

12z CMC is better than the 12z GFS

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GGEM sticks with the idea of a stripe of snow through central VA south of DC.  It's had the same basic setup for 2 1/2 days.  I'm not sure if it's right, but it's arguably the steadiest of the globals.  Makes sense too, as it's a middle-of-the-road solution compared to the GFS and Euro.

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30 minutes ago, 87storms said:

is that also a piece of a PV coming down through the lakes as well?  looks like that wants to squash things too.  my guess is that this has some potential to move north, but clearly it won't be by a lot.

Honestly that wave diving down seems to be late enough that it shouldnt be too much of a problem.  By the time that comes into play things have already gone wrong... the key issue is getting phasing in the TN Valley.  Get that and the system comes north...miss that and its going to slide east and OTS.  

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 6z ensembles were a disaster. Lets see if 12z goes back north but the ensembles have been useless. Shame on u america lol

          The problem is that we're too close to the event happening to have the GEFS be useful.   That system is not designed for spread in the 1-3 day range.    The SREF is designed for that range, but we all know that it's a hot mess.

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8 minutes ago, high risk said:

          The problem is that we're too close to the event happening to have the GEFS be useful.   That system is not designed for spread in the 1-3 day range.    The SREF is designed for that range, but we all know that it's a hot mess.

I'll try to post the RGEM ensemble in about 1/2 hour. 

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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. It’s gotta come north. 

The question I would ask you would be, what are the models not seeing?

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I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. Can’t see this going anywhere but north.

Does it also help that there's no high pressure to the north?


.
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5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. Can’t see this going anywhere but north.

I'm feeling better about it today. Consensus is just south of us. I do think we see the typical never fails north adjustment the last 48 hours. It's close enough that can work for us. I didn't want to see it squashed like the euro. We can work with where this is now imo. 

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5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

I find it hard to believe that central VA jackpots on a semi phased storm in mid March. Climatologically sounds unrealistic especially with a storm like this with marginal temps at best. Can’t see this going anywhere but north.

I'm in agreement but when do they make a move. I'm not one who panics but I really thought we would see a better 12z suite.

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