EastCoast NPZ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 20 minutes ago, MD Snow said: But even if the GFS slides to our south with heaviest precip. We've still got 60hrs to trend back north again. NAM and ICON are coming north. That's the big takeaway for me. Who gives a **** about either one of those models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 This is easily the worst GFS run we’ve seen in days for this storm because there’s very little phasing and interaction between the (now weaker) shortwaves. It’s not the 50-50 location or that Hudson Bay shortwave screwing it up. Just the main players not coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Frustratingly funny.....the NAM and others hint at a stronger farther N primary.....heck the GFS at H5 60hrs has the vortmax well west of the 6z position and looks more favorable which would imply a stronger primary at the surface in the Tenn/lower OV yet at the surface goes the complete other way with a weak suppressed wave sliding harmlessly OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Kinda crazy for anybody to give up now with the way this has been see-sawing on the models I gave up yesterday, I'm just on life support to see one good storm before my soul rests for the summer. Realistically speaking though, the huge variability in the models at even 48 hours out means we'll be watching this guessing until the last day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Gfs runs the wave out again. Could be it's typical nonsense. The upper support is further west. I'm not sure I buy what it does there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Darn...so close. With this whole 12z suite in general...but now, who knows? But I can't imagine we'll have anything inspiring to look at until at least 18z (if then)...certainly can't expect the Euro to look better, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 It's all about the way those individual pockets of energy interact coming downstream. For some reason the GFS has them closing off and acting more like discrete pockets this run - like beads on a necklace - which limits the potential for the interaction we need for this to go boom. I actually don't hate this as much as some people are going to. There are some bigger pieces that look pretty good this run. I think this was really pretty close to something big. Just need that energy to phase instead of staying separated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Big hit central southern VA. Looks to jackpot around me on 12k NAM and 12z GFS To the guys I usually talk with on here as well, Bob, Disc, PSU Hoffman, BristowWx and many more, I’ve been in CT until Sunday and got to experience the nor’easter on Wednesday. Craziness early evening up here. 3-4” an hour rates while I was helping me Uncle plow. Felt nice to experience it. I hope you guys can somehow have this trend up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Here we go again with the GFS flip flop. Yup. Actually, I was really kind of worried we'd see just this kind of solution after reading/seeing some of what the 06Z GEFS ensembles looked like. The fact that they didn't look great had me concerned, even if the deterministic 06Z was still decent (though not as good as 00Z). I'll be interested to see if the 12Z GEFS continues to look more suppressed, or if it puts us more back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Gfs runs the wave out again. Could be it's typical nonsense. The upper support is further west. I'm not sure I buy what it does there. Could you elaborate a bit? (What happened with the stream interaction this time?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 This Snowcoaster has been the longest ride I can remember. Ugh. Mood stabilizers and Dramamine needed ASAP. I guess this forum is just desperate for one last chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: JAckpot central VA There is no jackpot. If this phases it will come north and the jackpot will be north. If it doesn't phase the system will be weak and no one east of the mountains will get more then a few inches given the time of year and marginal temps down there. I don't see a way this is some big storm for southern VA. Matter of fact if it does end up phasing then by the end rain will be a bigger threat here. If it doesn't no one is getting much anywhere it's just a wasted storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: It's all about the way those individual pockets of energy interact coming downstream. For some reason the GFS has them closing off and acting more like discrete pockets this run - like beads on a necklace - which limits the potential for the interaction we need for this to go boom. I actually don't hate this as much as some people are going to. There are some bigger pieces that look pretty good this run. I think this was really pretty close to something big. Just need that energy to phase instead of staying separated. Seems to be a theme among a lot of today's 12z guidance, lol Everything is so, so close! Man, what a volatile array of solutions we have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 CMC doesn't look promising either at 42hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There is no jackpot. If this phases it will come north and the jackpot will be north. If it doesn't phase the system will be weak and no one east of the mountains will get more then a few inches given the time of year and marginal temps down there. I don't see a way this is some big storm for southern VA. Matter of fact if it does end up phasing then by the end rain will be a bigger threat here. If it doesn't no one is getting much anywhere it's just a wasted storm. Really good post. Some don't appear to understand that several inches of snow over a fairly long period when it's in the mid 30's during the day in mid-March (or frankly any time of the year) is going to be just be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 CMC just misses... better down to EZF and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Frustratingly funny.....the NAM and others hint at a stronger farther N primary.....heck the GFS at H5 60hrs has the vortmax well west of the 6z position and looks more favorable which would imply a stronger primary at the surface in the Tenn/lower OV yet at the surface goes the complete other way with a weak suppressed wave sliding harmlessly OTS. Say wha?? So you're saying what the surface did doesn't fit what the H5 was implying? Huh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Could you elaborate a bit? (What happened with the stream interaction this time?) Instead of phasing the southern wave with the NS energy and pulling it up into the TN valley it runs the wave out ahead as a front runner. Then the upper low doesn't have enough left to work with and slides east with some harmless snows in the mountains. The jumping the southern wave out ahead of the upper level support is something the gfs does erroneously sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 looks like the NS shows promise and then gets kinda sheared out with the SS running out ahead. still doesn't look impossible for a little shift north towards gametime, but we'll need that to start happening after the 12z's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Finally sobered up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Say wha?? So you're saying what the surface did doesn't fit what the H5 was implying? Huh... NAM has a bad habit off being out of sync with the surface and the 500 mbs at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Instead of phasing the southern wave with the NS energy and pulling it up into the TN valley it runs the wave out ahead as a front runner. Then the upper low doesn't have enough left to work with and slides east with some harmless snows in the mountains. The jumping the southern wave out ahead of the upper level support is something the gfs does erroneously sometimes. is that also a piece of a PV coming down through the lakes as well? looks like that wants to squash things too. my guess is that this has some potential to move north, but clearly it won't be by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: NAM has a bad habit off being out of sync with the surface and the 500 mbs at range. I think he was referring to the GFS, actually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Instead of phasing the southern wave with the NS energy and pulling it up into the TN valley it runs the wave out ahead as a front runner. Then the upper low doesn't have enough left to work with and slides east with some harmless snows in the mountains. The jumping the southern wave out ahead of the upper level support is something the gfs does erroneously sometimes. In other words...18z may bring it back if this was an error, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Amped said: Finally sobered up. Except it's been - and continues to be - by far the most consistent model out of all of them on this storm. Who knows, it could vomit all over itself next run, but so far the other models have gravitated toward the GFS, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 can't imagine that look at 96 would really help things... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018030912&fh=96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I think he was referring to the GFS, actually!Was looking at NAM h5, my mistake and gfs surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/972142962686726145 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: can't imagine that look at 96 would really help things... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018030912&fh=96 Storm is already gone by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Anyway glad we are converging on a solution finally. Good to see the ICON shift NW ~300 miles and the GFS move SE a few hundred miles yielding bigger separation than before lol. Clearly a convergence to more disagreement.Seriously tho, these swings, whether a "good/reliable" model or a "lousy needs to be retired model" goes to reinforce the point that a few subtle timing differences will yield major changes to the final outcome. Would like to see some more guidance showing hits as lead time shrinks, but we take for now. Fingers crossed ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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