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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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This is easily the worst GFS run we’ve seen in days for this storm because there’s very little phasing and interaction between the (now weaker) shortwaves. It’s not the 50-50 location or that Hudson Bay shortwave screwing it up. Just the main players not coming together.

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Frustratingly funny.....the NAM and others hint at a stronger farther N primary.....heck the GFS at H5 60hrs has the vortmax well west of the 6z position and looks more favorable which would imply a stronger primary at the surface in the Tenn/lower OV yet at the surface goes the complete other way with a weak suppressed wave sliding harmlessly OTS.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Kinda crazy for anybody to give up now with the way this has been see-sawing on the models

I gave up yesterday, I'm just on life support to see one good storm before my soul rests for the summer.

 

Realistically speaking though, the huge variability in the models at even 48 hours out means we'll be watching this guessing until the last day or two.

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It's all about the way those individual pockets of energy interact coming downstream. For some reason the GFS has them closing off and acting more like discrete pockets this run - like beads on a necklace - which limits the potential for the interaction we need for this to go boom. 

I actually don't hate this as much as some people are going to. There are some bigger pieces that look pretty good this run. I think this was really pretty close to something big. Just need that energy to phase instead of staying separated.

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Big hit central southern VA. Looks to jackpot around me on 12k NAM and 12z GFS

To the guys I usually talk with on here as well, Bob, Disc, PSU Hoffman, BristowWx and many more, I’ve been in CT until Sunday and got to experience the nor’easter on Wednesday. Craziness early evening up here. 3-4” an hour rates while I was helping me Uncle plow. Felt nice to experience it. I hope you guys can somehow have this trend up your way. 

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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Here we go again with the GFS flip flop. 

Yup.  Actually, I was really kind of worried we'd see just this kind of solution after reading/seeing some of what the 06Z GEFS ensembles looked like.  The fact that they didn't look great had me concerned, even if the deterministic 06Z was still decent (though not as good as 00Z).  I'll be interested to see if the 12Z GEFS continues to look more suppressed, or if it puts us more back in the game.

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4 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

JAckpot central VA

There is no jackpot. If this phases it will come north and the jackpot will be north. If it doesn't phase the system will be weak and no one east of the mountains will get more then a few inches given the time of year and marginal temps down there. I don't see a way this is some big storm for southern VA. Matter of fact if it does end up phasing then by the end rain will be a bigger threat here. If it doesn't no one is getting much anywhere it's just a wasted storm.  

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2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

It's all about the way those individual pockets of energy interact coming downstream. For some reason the GFS has them closing off and acting more like discrete pockets this run - like beads on a necklace - which limits the potential for the interaction we need for this to go boom. 

I actually don't hate this as much as some people are going to. There are some bigger pieces that look pretty good this run. I think this was really pretty close to something big. Just need that energy to phase instead of staying separated.

Seems to be a theme among a lot of today's 12z guidance, lol Everything is so, so close! Man, what a volatile array of solutions we have!

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There is no jackpot. If this phases it will come north and the jackpot will be north. If it doesn't phase the system will be weak and no one east of the mountains will get more then a few inches given the time of year and marginal temps down there. I don't see a way this is some big storm for southern VA. Matter of fact if it does end up phasing then by the end rain will be a bigger threat here. If it doesn't no one is getting much anywhere it's just a wasted storm.  

Really good post. Some don't appear to understand that several inches of snow over a fairly long period when it's in the mid 30's during the day in mid-March (or frankly any time of the year) is going to be just be white rain.

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Frustratingly funny.....the NAM and others hint at a stronger farther N primary.....heck the GFS at H5 60hrs has the vortmax well west of the 6z position and looks more favorable which would imply a stronger primary at the surface in the Tenn/lower OV yet at the surface goes the complete other way with a weak suppressed wave sliding harmlessly OTS.

Say wha?? So you're saying what the surface did doesn't fit what the H5 was implying? Huh...

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Could you elaborate a bit? (What happened with the stream interaction this time?)

Instead of phasing the southern wave with the NS energy and pulling it up into the TN valley it runs the wave out ahead as a front runner. Then the upper low doesn't have enough left to work with and slides east with some harmless snows in the mountains. The jumping the southern wave out ahead of the upper level support is something the gfs does erroneously sometimes. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Instead of phasing the southern wave with the NS energy and pulling it up into the TN valley it runs the wave out ahead as a front runner. Then the upper low doesn't have enough left to work with and slides east with some harmless snows in the mountains. The jumping the southern wave out ahead of the upper level support is something the gfs does erroneously sometimes. 

is that also a piece of a PV coming down through the lakes as well?  looks like that wants to squash things too.  my guess is that this has some potential to move north, but clearly it won't be by a lot.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Instead of phasing the southern wave with the NS energy and pulling it up into the TN valley it runs the wave out ahead as a front runner. Then the upper low doesn't have enough left to work with and slides east with some harmless snows in the mountains. The jumping the southern wave out ahead of the upper level support is something the gfs does erroneously sometimes. 

In other words...18z may bring it back if this was an error, lol

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8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Finally sobered up.

Except it's been - and continues to be - by far the most consistent model out of all of them on this storm. Who knows, it could vomit all over itself next run, but so far the other models have gravitated toward the GFS, not the other way around.

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Anyway glad we are converging on a solution finally. Good to see the ICON shift NW ~300 miles and the GFS move SE a few hundred miles yielding bigger separation than before lol. Clearly a convergence to more disagreement.

Seriously tho, these swings, whether a "good/reliable" model or a "lousy needs to be retired model" goes to reinforce the point that a few subtle timing differences will yield major changes to the final outcome. Would like to see some more guidance showing hits as lead time shrinks, but we take for now. Fingers crossed !

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