ryanconway63 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Does this storm look to be a major wind maker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 very positive nam developments in the first 24-48 hours which is really the useful range of the nam. This is a good stsrt to the 12z suite. Lets hope the more reliable models follow th nams lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 44 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If not for that....welll you know. Like I said..the thing we need is also the thing that's killing us the most Agreed. It does appear that the NS is closer at 57. I'm taking that as a + since its all about trends, and this was better. with a little more luck and a faster scoot south, this would help upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 On our fav B and W 12z RGEM at 48 hours, there is a 1005mb SLP on the AL/TN border. Is that our low or is that a completely different SLP from the one we are looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 There are ways the nam is useful at range. One example. Look at the low location on the 84 hour nam. Then look at the precip. Gets the developing shield into D.C. even with a track well southeast if some gfs misses. I fully suspect the gfs is doing its normal BS there. Nam even with a much weaker system has a much more expansive precip distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: King must have been exiled then because he sure hasn't ruled the roost this year. Yeah i was just thinking the same thing. Some people must not follow models much. GFS is about to take the title......its been too consistent to crap the bed....and if it does, I'll take my crow served blackened.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3k was about to lay the wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 New thread after Euro to carry this home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Oh wow, just took a look at that 3k NAM. That is in line with the looks we've gotten from the biggest GFS crush jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: New thread after Euro to carry this home? Only @Deck Pic can start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/972124345706467328 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Only @Deck Pic can start. Hold on now...yes, I had a rocky start, but look how far we've come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 iCON at 60 looks like it’s primed to go boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hold on now...yes, I had a rocky start, but look how far we've come together. you can start a new thread whenever you want, but i am requesting at least storm modeish moderation. its gotten a little annoying in here the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The RGEM looks almost identical to the GFS through 48. I think we are starting to see some agreement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Can we at least let the 12z guidance (Euro et al) finish before making a new thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: iCON at 60 looks like it’s primed to go boom Exactly. Primary is in central Alabama versus Northern FL panhandle/Southern Georgia at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 ICON is getting to 50/50 into a better spot in a hurry this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: iCON at 60 looks like it’s primed to go boom Looks WAY better than its last run. This model is very jumpy though. I was following it when it first came out on TT and it was all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Can we at least let the 12z guidance (Euro et al) finish before making a new thread? I agree. Let's WAIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 JB: "Perhaps this is the time models work, but most storms in the ne corridor that are going to hit in 3-4 days are forecasted south of the area at that time, If forecasted, many times will warm up and rain" "Canadian ensembles already back to where Euro was originally on this storm a few days ago. Interesting since its an ensemble and since it supports our ideas NAEFS should be fun Bottom line dont write it off" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 iCON at 60 looks like it’s primed to go boomPretty apparent the 12z suite is converging on gfs-like solution. Nam made a huge step at mid levels but sfc is wonky and throwing things off. Rgem and icon look a lot more like gfs. I know it’s a weenie-ism but it sure seems like getting the pac nw wave onshore helped. Main difference is that it is more neutral/neg tilt as it dives and that can be seen in the vort maps very early on. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just some minor run-to-run ticks on the ICON ;-)So the NAM has some remnants/semblance of the primary low into the KY area now and other guidance is trying to move that direction. Interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Looks WAY better than its last run. This model is very jumpy though. I was following it when it first came out on TT and it was all over the place. Totally agree...like having any models at this point coming in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: Pretty apparent the 12z suite is converging on gfs-like solution. Nam made a huge step at mid levels but sfc is wonky and throwing things off. Rgem and icon look a lot more like gfs. I know it’s a weenie-ism but it sure seems like getting the pac nw wave onshore helped. Main difference is that it is more neutral/neg tilt as it dives and that can be seen in the vort maps very early on. . don't speak so definitively. GFS could go back to a more southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Yeah...ICON and NAM have trended toward the GFS this morning at 12z. We are 2 for 2 so far. In my mind it was either now or never. This is exciting. I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 ICON looking more Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, eurojosh said: New thread after Euro GFS to carry this home? fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Big improvements on the ICON but dont know if this run is going to cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: don't speak so definitively. GFS could go back to a more southern solution. But even if the GFS slides to our south with heaviest precip. We've still got 60hrs to trend back north again. NAM and ICON are coming north. That's the big takeaway for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.