ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM is a move in the right direction. But the low being in central Alabama is killing it. GFS has been consistent with a North Alabama or Tennessee low. Still a LOT of variation between the models. But I love seeing the NAM move towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM gets snow into the area in an entirely different way from any other model. This is getting crazy at this point. Which NAM? (sorry, I haven't memorized the schedules of the NAMs yet!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the NAM does have that classic HECS look lol.... It's soooo close. I'm not mad at the NAM right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Subtropics said: I honestly can't think of one time LOCALLY GFS has scored the coup on the Euro. It happens elsewhere, but not here.. Then you REALLY haven't been paying attention. This is almost the opposite of reality. The EURO is still scoring better than the GFS overall, but LOCALLY it's been much poorer than usual this year. Been many times when the GFS has schooled it. Doesn't mean it won't be right here, of course - but your post is simply inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: So close. Gets some snow in here, but it hits a brick wall just when its getting up to us of course..we cant enjoy good things but you would think over the next 84 hours...we could get the NAM to move 50 miles north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, was just looking at, for instance, the surface at 69-h. The low that's stamped out on the map is in southeast GA, which doesn't look good. But you can definitely see the clear bend of isobars as you say going up into TN and also near the Carolina coast. Also, the NAM has several closed off "centers", including a couple over eastern TN/southeast KY. May not be enough to "get it done" per se this time, but comparing to 00 and 06Z, this does look like a big improvement over that. yup, noticed this too. i was following at 500 level then was surprised to see where the surface low was in comparison so its upper levels. much further south than i thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Monday start time will definitely have boundary layer issues plus snowing during the day with the dreaded sun angle issues. GFS had it coming in Sunday night and that was the optimal period for accumulations. Monday stuff is. Concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea man, if you look just at the low center and IGNORE the big bend of SLP isobars into the TN valley then it doesn't look that great. NAM was right on the cusp of driving the primary into into TN. Good run IMHO. VERY good. Yep it was a big step toward what we want imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, TowsonWeather said: Then you REALLY haven't been paying attention. Your post is almost the opposite of reality. The EURO is still scoring better than the GFS overall, but LOCALLY it's been much poorer than usual this year. Been many times when the GFS has schooled it. Doesn't mean it won't be right here, of course - but your post is simply inaccurate. Fair enough. We will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: It's soooo close. I'm not mad at the NAM right now yea..im more mad at the date. Imagine if it was Feb 12-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which NAM? (sorry, I haven't memorized the schedules of the NAMs yet!) 12k NAM. The 3km comes out a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: i actually like the POTENTIAL of the NAM more than the GFS. Much more of a classic Miller A without the transfer worries that we have to worry about with the GFS Has more of a precip shield over the Ohio valley with much more hinting at a primary into TN/KY, that's for sure...compared to 06Z. The 06Z had the low racing well off the coast and nearly nothing getting into the OH/TN valley area. It may not mean anything in the end, but it is quite a difference it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's soooo close. I'm not mad at the NAM right now but it is a junk model that is out of it range right? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol compare 6z to now. comical Yeah but not really unexpected if you believe in the GFS. NAM is more accurate the closer to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, TowsonWeather said: Then you REALLY haven't been paying attention. Your post is almost the opposite of reality. The EURO is still scoring better than the GFS overall, but LOCALLY it's been much poorer than usual this year. Been many times when the GFS has schooled it. Doesn't mean it won't be right here, of course - but your post is simply inaccurate. I think he might be trolling to be honest...regardless most of the people on this forum have seen the Euro make some big time errors this year. Not worth trying to convince people who aren't paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3K actually looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's soooo close. I'm not mad at the NAM right now we got dark blue bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: no model has big shift in the short-mid range than the NAM so i am not too worried....actually nothing matters until the GFS run to see what it does as i said lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 And of course the NAM 3km looks completely different to the 12km and 32km at hour 55' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 can you guys stop bickering about which model is better. take it to banter please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3k has a very similar look with the closed low that looks to make a pass just south of our latitude but it has a surface low into Tenn. and Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 50/50 weakens and pulls away after 60 hours, allows surface to begin coming north. Another issue is start time...IF precip moves in per NAM it’s now toward Monday AM instead of late Sunday. See my post to Randy. I think there is a relationship there because the 50/50 moves out just as the wave approaches on almost all guidance. I think the kick it gets as the next wave in the atmosphere approaches is what finally shoves it east. So a slower wave will delay the 50/50 leaving. But a slower wave also probably means more amplified so it's a wash. We might just be stuck in the mud with that and simply need a strong enough wave to overcome what suppression it puts in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: i think the 50/50 thing is being really overrated lol....we just need a vigorous system through phasing or whatever the NAM is doing I'm with you on that based on what I said to ERS and Tracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which NAM? (sorry, I haven't memorized the schedules of the NAMs yet!) The NAM NAM :). It has a strong NS vort and that is where we end up getting our precip from on this run. By the time the waves start to interact it is too late for us this run to score a big storm. But it took a step in the right direction. It just did it differently than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yep it was a big step toward what we want imo I'm 100% totally good with what the nam was trying to do. SLP was misplaced based on H5 and even the surface. The trend towards a consolidated primary making a run at us was clear as day. Since it's the nam it might not be until the low is actually in TN before it has it right but for now we can all sit back and say that we're no doubt right in the game in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Subtropics said: I honestly can't think of one time LOCALLY GFS has scored the coup on the Euro. It happens elsewhere, but not here.. Think harder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3km NAM has a closed h5 low in the southern parts of SE IL/SW IN at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 3km NAM has a closed h5 540 countour low in the southern parts of E IL/N IA at 60 3k is a hit of some sort similar to the GFS. It's also where the 12k was heading. Great 12z suite so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I know I will take heat for this but posting it anyway as this is a weather discussion board. The CRAS is the farthest N model with this storm even as we enter the short term (60 hrs) before what many claim it enters its over-amplification bias in later panels generally. Key data for this coming storm is now sitting over very sparse data regions. Not sure how many of you know much about the CRAS model, but while it is a relic irt how its physics and algorithms are processed (it has had upgrades over the years) it was one of the first and most reliable models to utilize GOES satellite imagery data into its forecasting skillset which is still this model's basis in forecast output. There is actually a very good article here on that: www.ssec.wisc.edu/news/articles/10005 In any event, with that said and key pieces of energy sitting over sparse data regions attm, this model *probably* has some validity in its more Northern appearance with surface features over the short term up to 60 hours. Like I always say with this model, if you understand its bias and nuances it can be a decent tool for guidance and not necessarily verbatim especially in its LR. Utilizing GOES data (which other models do as well but CRAS does heavily and was created to do so) may not be a bad tool to at least look at for clues attm until our energy pulls onshore into much more favorably sampled areas. NAM at 54 looks quite a bit like the CRAS at the same valid time. Again, focus shorter range trends with this threat as that is where your disparity emerges in the medium range. Both are trying to keep that primary in tact longer and punching it a little farther N mich like the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: but it is a junk model that is out of it range right? lol After 48 hours, it sure is. Even most time within 48 hours. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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