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March 11-12 Potential Storm

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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TowsonWeather

TowsonWeather

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

I honestly can't think of one time LOCALLY GFS has scored the coup on the Euro. It happens elsewhere, but not here..

Then you REALLY haven't been paying attention. This is almost the opposite of reality. The EURO is still scoring better than the GFS overall, but LOCALLY it's been much poorer than usual this year. Been many times when the GFS has schooled it. Doesn't mean it won't be right here, of course - but your post is simply inaccurate.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Just now, stormtracker said:

So close.   Gets some snow in here, but it hits a brick wall just when its getting up to us 

of course..we cant enjoy good things but you would think over the next 84 hours...we could get the NAM to move 50 miles north lol

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, was just looking at, for instance, the surface at 69-h.  The low that's stamped out on the map is in southeast GA, which doesn't look good.  But you can definitely see the clear bend of isobars as you say going up into TN and also near the Carolina coast.  Also, the NAM has several closed off "centers", including a couple over eastern TN/southeast KY.  May not be enough to "get it done" per se this time, but comparing to 00 and 06Z, this does look like a big improvement over that.

yup, noticed this too. i was following at 500 level then was surprised to see where the surface low was in comparison so its upper levels. much further south than i thought it would be. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, if you look just at the low center and IGNORE the big bend of SLP isobars into the TN valley then it doesn't look that great. NAM was right on the cusp of driving the primary into into TN. Good run IMHO. VERY good.  

Yep it was a big step toward what we want imo 

 

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Subtropics

Subtropics

Posted
Posted
Just now, TowsonWeather said:

Then you REALLY haven't been paying attention. Your post is almost the opposite of reality. The EURO is still scoring better than the GFS overall, but LOCALLY it's been much poorer than usual this year. Been many times when the GFS has schooled it. Doesn't mean it won't be right here, of course - but your post is simply inaccurate.

Fair enough. We will see what happens.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:

i actually like the POTENTIAL of the NAM more than the GFS. Much more of a classic Miller A without the transfer worries that we have to worry about with the GFS

Has more of a precip shield over the Ohio valley with much more hinting at a primary into TN/KY, that's for sure...compared to 06Z.  The 06Z had the low racing well off the coast and nearly nothing getting into the OH/TN valley area.  It may not mean anything in the end, but it is quite a difference it seems.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
Just now, TowsonWeather said:

Then you REALLY haven't been paying attention. Your post is almost the opposite of reality. The EURO is still scoring better than the GFS overall, but LOCALLY it's been much poorer than usual this year. Been many times when the GFS has schooled it. Doesn't mean it won't be right here, of course - but your post is simply inaccurate.

I think he might be trolling to be honest...regardless most of the people on this forum have seen the Euro make some big time errors this year. Not worth trying to convince people who aren't paying attention. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

50/50 weakens and pulls away after 60 hours, allows surface to begin coming north. Another issue is start time...IF precip moves in per NAM it’s now toward Monday AM instead of late Sunday. 

See my post to Randy. I think there is a relationship there because the 50/50 moves out just as the wave approaches on almost all guidance. I think the kick it gets as the next wave in the atmosphere approaches is what finally shoves it east. So a slower wave will delay the 50/50 leaving. But a slower wave also probably means more amplified so it's a wash. We might just be stuck in the mud with that and simply need a strong enough wave to overcome what suppression it puts in the way. 

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Which NAM? (sorry, I haven't memorized the schedules of the NAMs yet!)

The NAM NAM :). It has a strong NS vort and that is where we end up getting our precip from on this run. By the time the waves start to interact it is too late for us this run to score a big storm. But it took a step in the right direction. It just did it differently than the GFS :)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep it was a big step toward what we want imo 

 

I'm 100% totally good with what the nam was trying to do. SLP was misplaced based on H5 and even the surface. The trend towards a consolidated primary making a run at us was clear as day. Since it's the nam it might not be until the low is actually in TN before it has it right but for now we can all sit back and say that we're no doubt right in the game in the short range. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
I know I will take heat for this but posting it anyway as this is a weather discussion board. The CRAS is the farthest N model with this storm even as we enter the short term (60 hrs) before what many claim it enters its over-amplification bias in later panels generally.

 

Key data for this coming storm is now sitting over very sparse data regions. Not sure how many of you know much about the CRAS model, but while it is a relic irt how its physics and algorithms are processed (it has had upgrades over the years) it was one of the first and most reliable models to utilize GOES satellite imagery data into its forecasting skillset which is still this model's basis in forecast output. There is actually a very good article here on that:

 

www.ssec.wisc.edu/news/articles/10005

 

In any event, with that said and key pieces of energy sitting over sparse data regions attm, this model *probably* has some validity in its more Northern appearance with surface features over the short term up to 60 hours. Like I always say with this model, if you understand its bias and nuances it can be a decent tool for guidance and not necessarily verbatim especially in its LR. Utilizing GOES data (which other models do as well but CRAS does heavily and was created to do so) may not be a bad tool to at least look at for clues attm until our energy pulls onshore into much more favorably sampled areas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NAM at 54 looks quite a bit like the CRAS at the same valid time. Again, focus shorter range trends with this threat as that is where your disparity emerges in the medium range. Both are trying to keep that primary in tact longer and punching it a little farther N mich like the 0z GFS.

 

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