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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I biggest fear with the GFS is getting the system too amped

Almost no chance of that. Looking at the flow suppression is a huge risk. The runs that give us a hit start with a strong wave ejecting into the plains. And even then it's forced east under the flow. If the wave ejects in parts or weak it gets sheared. The flow is flatter then I would like honestly. 

 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Almost no chance of that. Looking at the flow suppression is a huge risk. The runs that give us a hit start with a strong wave ejecting into the plains. And even then it's forced east under the flow. If the states ejects in parts of weak it gets sheared. The flow is flatter then I would like honestly. 

 

Yeah, this looks like it will end up Euro-esque  so far

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Almost no chance of that. Looking at the flow suppression is a huge risk. The runs that give us a hit start with a strong wave ejecting into the plains. And even then it's forced east under the flow. If the states ejects in parts of weak it gets sheared. The flow is flatter then I would like honestly. 

 

Yeah... after seeing several runs, I've learned amped = good in this case.

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Plenty of time for North trend.  I can remember some storms that started south and eventually gave us a direct hit.  I can't remember many storms modeled North and giving us the South trend.  I also remember storms where we see the solution 4-5 days out.  then get a day or two of waffles and it ends up back where it started.  Double weenie handbook iI suppose.

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