Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The SS is weaker this run at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That should be at the bottom of your list. Sheared/weak/progressive is by far the bigger risk here. Yup. Amped shouldn't be on anybody list of fears based on 12z data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GFS seems a little south as of 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 81 1006mb SLP S Arkansas 84 1006mb SLP NW MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Meh, 50/50 low lingering too far back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Coming in way south as of 84... Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: I biggest fear with the GFS is getting the system too amped Almost no chance of that. Looking at the flow suppression is a huge risk. The runs that give us a hit start with a strong wave ejecting into the plains. And even then it's forced east under the flow. If the wave ejects in parts or weak it gets sheared. The flow is flatter then I would like honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Almost no chance of that. Looking at the flow suppression is a huge risk. The runs that give us a hit start with a strong wave ejecting into the plains. And even then it's forced east under the flow. If the states ejects in parts of weak it gets sheared. The flow is flatter then I would like honestly. Yeah, this looks like it will end up Euro-esque so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 93 1000mb SLP NW AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Almost no chance of that. Looking at the flow suppression is a huge risk. The runs that give us a hit start with a strong wave ejecting into the plains. And even then it's forced east under the flow. If the states ejects in parts of weak it gets sheared. The flow is flatter then I would like honestly. Yeah... after seeing several runs, I've learned amped = good in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Don't like the chanted at 72. Weaker wave. South. Flow even flatter. Hope it recovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 90h doesn't look terrible, it took a bit of a jog north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Don't like the chanted at 72. Weaker wave. South. Flow even flatter. Hope it recovers. it's trying to at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looks a lot like the Euro at 96. One hell of a big storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 99 ongoing transfer to off SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looks a lot like the Euro at 96. One hell of a big storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Nevermind..it's going to slide south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Not a good run at all. Heights to the north are a stone wall for the storm to gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The H5 is south at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Not a good run at all. Heights to the north are a stone wall for the storm to gain latitude. Yup. We got time to recover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GFS is merely now in the camp of the other models. This one still needs a lot of work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Yup. We got time to recover 4.5 day leads and we need confluence to end up weaker. That's not a tall order at all. I'd be a lot more worried if it ran right over top of us and rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Horrifying fringe job out here. Snow makes it 20 miles south of me. Would be a fitting end to this winter. And ANOTHER Richmond crush job. Plenty of time left though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Matches the Euro pretty well this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Its an off run...dosent count but writing is on the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Plenty of time for North trend. I can remember some storms that started south and eventually gave us a direct hit. I can't remember many storms modeled North and giving us the South trend. I also remember storms where we see the solution 4-5 days out. then get a day or two of waffles and it ends up back where it started. Double weenie handbook iI suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Its an off run...dosent count but writing is on the wall What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Matches the Euro pretty well this runWe need euro to match gfs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Matches the Euro pretty well this run We need euro to match gfs.... It just did didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 lol 111 is about 50 miles east of HSE at 994mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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