smokeybandit Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/972117467614142466 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: NAM is north of the previous NAM, with the low in Central Alabama. However, from my analysis of the "good looks" vs the "bag looks" this location has never been ideal for snow for this storm. Yeah, it looks as if the low will be Latitude challenged again but.... Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Yeah, it looks as if the low will be Latitude challenged again but.... Baby steps. Really we want to see that low in Tennessee, or at least, north Alabama. Every single Euro and GFS run and ensemble that has worked, and I posted a few several pages back, featured that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yeah I was going to mention that. It's not getting out of the way as fast this run. That's going to be a sizable negative IMO. When was the last time a 50/50 low threatened to screw us this much? Smh (and could the models be overdoing it?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, it looks as if the low will be Latitude challenged again but.... Baby steps. no model has big shift in the short-mid range than the NAM so i am not too worried....actually nothing matters until the GFS run to see what it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: When was the last time a 50/50 low threatened to screw us this much? Smh (and could the models be overdoing it?) Anything is possible in a volatile environment like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 if you compare 60 hour NAM at 500 to 6z....all the "energy pieces" seem way more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The NAM is showing an entirely different evolution. So many moving parts here - whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Ji said: if you compare 60 hour NAM at 500 to 6z....all the "energy pieces" seem way more north They certainly are. Problem is less southern stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Ji said: no model has big shift in the short-mid range than the NAM so i am not too worried....actually nothing matters until the GFS run to see what it does Honestly I don't concern myself to much with the NAM outside of 48 hours. Just happen to be around the computer for the run so I thought I would follow along. Now tomorrows 12z I will pay some attention too. But this one? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 where is the Low really? Alabama or kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: main thing i see is that GFS just has a more vigirious SS stream Yep but the nam hinted at another way this might work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: The NAM is showing an entirely different evolution. So many moving parts here - whew. Yup, this is another new solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yep but the nam hinted at another way this might work. Yea man, if you look just at the low center and IGNORE the big bend of SLP isobars into the TN valley then it doesn't look that great. NAM was right on the cusp of driving the primary into into TN. Good run IMHO. VERY good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Snow into the Shen Valley at 72. Into DC at 75. It is very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 50/50 weakens and pulls away after 60 hours, allows surface to begin coming north. Another issue is start time...IF precip moves in per NAM it’s now toward Monday AM instead of late Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I don't get excited until the King is on our side. We've all seen this story before. Euro vs GFS you know who wins. At least in the subtropical mid atlantic where snow is the exception, not the rule at 38.x north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Subtropics said: I don't get excited until the King is on our side. We've all seen this story before. Euro vs GFS you know who wins. the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Lol compare 6z to now. comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Subtropics said: I don't get excited until the King is on our side. We've all seen this story before. Euro vs GFS you know who wins. King must have been exiled then because he sure hasn't ruled the roost this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 50/50 weakens and pulls away after 60 hours, allows surface to begin coming north. Another issue is start time...IF precip moves in per NAM it’s now toward Monday AM instead of late Sunday. i think the 50/50 thing is being really overrated lol....we just need a vigorous system through phasing or whatever the NAM is doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Every time we get a positive development, it's neutralized with that GD 50/50 moving slower I think that's because there is a bit of a symbiotic relationship there. As the next wave approaches it gives the 50/50 a kick east at the last minute. And the more amplified the system coming is the more of a kick it gives. A slower wave is good it lets it amplify more but then it delays the kick and lets the 50/50 linger. So the problem is the two are kind of stuck in a dance where there can only be so much improvement. In the end I suspect we just need a healthy phased enough system to bully its way up into the TN valley then be in position when the 50/50 relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: King must have been exiled then because he sure hasn't ruled the roost this year. I honestly can't think of one time LOCALLY GFS has scored the coup on the Euro. It happens elsewhere, but not here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea man, if you look just at the low center and IGNORE the big bend of SLP isobars into the TN valley then it doesn't look that great. NAM was right on the cusp of driving the primary into into TN. Good run IMHO. VERY good. Yeah, was just looking at, for instance, the surface at 69-h. The low that's stamped out on the map is in southeast GA, which doesn't look good. But you can definitely see the clear bend of isobars as you say going up into TN and also near the Carolina coast. Also, the NAM has several closed off "centers", including a couple over eastern TN/southeast KY. May not be enough to "get it done" per se this time, but comparing to 00 and 06Z, this does look like a big improvement over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The NAM gets snow into the area in an entirely different way from any other model. This is getting crazy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 i actually like the POTENTIAL of the NAM more than the GFS. Much more of a classic Miller A without the transfer worries that we have to worry about with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol compare 6z to now. comical It's insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Subtropics said: I don't get excited until the King is on our side. We've all seen this story before. Euro vs GFS you know who wins. At least in the subtropical mid atlantic where snow is the exception, not the rule at 38.x north. The Euro has not been king this year. This has been gone over so many times even just in this thread. It's not the model it used to be at least in terms of this year...it's had some major jumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 the NAM does have that classic HECS look lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 So close. Gets some snow in here, but it hits a brick wall just when its getting up to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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