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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

NAM is north of the previous NAM, with the low in Central Alabama. However, from my analysis of the "good looks" vs the "bag looks" this location has never been ideal for snow for this storm.

Yeah, it looks as if the low will be Latitude challenged again but.... Baby steps.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, it looks as if the low will be Latitude challenged again but.... Baby steps.

Really we want to see that low in Tennessee, or at least, north Alabama. Every single Euro and GFS run and ensemble that has worked, and I posted a few several pages back, featured that.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, it looks as if the low will be Latitude challenged again but.... Baby steps.

no model has big shift in the short-mid range than the NAM so i am not too worried....actually nothing matters until the GFS run to see what it does

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Just now, Ji said:

no model has big shift in the short-mid range than the NAM so i am not too worried....actually nothing matters until the GFS run to see what it does

Honestly I don't concern myself to much with the NAM outside of 48 hours. Just happen to be around the computer for the run so I thought I would follow along. Now tomorrows 12z I will pay some attention too. But this one? Not so much.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep but the nam hinted at another way this might work. 

Yea man, if you look just at the low center and IGNORE the big bend of SLP isobars into the TN valley then it doesn't look that great. NAM was right on the cusp of driving the primary into into TN. Good run IMHO. VERY good.  

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2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

50/50 weakens and pulls away after 60 hours, allows surface to begin coming north. Another issue is start time...IF precip moves in per NAM it’s now toward Monday AM instead of late Sunday. 

i think the 50/50 thing is being really overrated lol....we just need a vigorous system through phasing or whatever the NAM is doing

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15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Every time we get a positive development, it's neutralized with that GD 50/50 moving slower

I think that's because there is a bit of a symbiotic relationship there. As the next wave approaches it gives the 50/50 a kick east at the last minute. And the more amplified the system coming is the more of a kick it gives. A slower wave is good it lets it amplify more but then it delays the kick and lets the 50/50 linger. So the problem is the two are kind of stuck in a dance where there can only be so much improvement. In the end I suspect we just need a healthy phased enough system to bully its way up into the TN valley then be in position when the 50/50 relaxes. 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

King must have been exiled then because he sure hasn't ruled the roost this year. 

I honestly can't think of one time LOCALLY GFS has scored the coup on the Euro. It happens elsewhere, but not here..

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea man, if you look just at the low center and IGNORE the big bend of SLP isobars into the TN valley then it doesn't look that great. NAM was right on the cusp of driving the primary into into TN. Good run IMHO. VERY good.  

Yeah, was just looking at, for instance, the surface at 69-h.  The low that's stamped out on the map is in southeast GA, which doesn't look good.  But you can definitely see the clear bend of isobars as you say going up into TN and also near the Carolina coast.  Also, the NAM has several closed off "centers", including a couple over eastern TN/southeast KY.  May not be enough to "get it done" per se this time, but comparing to 00 and 06Z, this does look like a big improvement over that.

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4 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

I don't get excited until the King is on our side. We've all seen this story before. Euro vs GFS you know who wins. At least in the subtropical mid atlantic where snow is the exception, not the rule at 38.x north.

The Euro has not been king this year. This has been gone over so many times even just in this thread. It's not the model it used to be at least in terms of this year...it's had some major jumps. 

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