psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think its too soon ha...these first 48 hours probably determine the next 48 hours. Yea but by 30 hours nam look identical to 6z nam again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM has started off with the N/S further north and east, western ridge axis further west than prior runs. Upstream confluence still there and 50/50 holding in. Going to be a battle of the streams again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: its a wonder how we ever get snow.....like 50 things have to go right....so far this event we have worried about phasing, the transfer, the 50/50 ULL, the southern stream being too weak..the canadien shortwave diving down into our storm....lack of high pressure....qpf being too dry on NW side...etc It's like a golf swing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Though a touch weaker the 50/50 is taking its time getting out of the picture at 34 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Though a touch weaker the 50/50 is taking its time getting out of the picture at 34 hr. Yay another problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM has a better alignment with that far northern vort...but that 50/50 is moving like me after a heavy meal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Not liking where the NAM is going with this at 39 hr. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yay another problem If not for that....welll you know. Like I said..the thing we need is also the thing that's killing us the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 From what I can see, N/S is bit more vigorous and further north on the NAM than 06z, less interaction with S/S through 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not liking where the NAM is going with this at 39 hr. Hope I am wrong. I don't think you are so far. What a painful set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's like a golf swing and 99.9999999999% of the time we slice it off towards the clubhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: its a wonder how we ever get snow.....like 50 things have to go right....so far this event we have worried about phasing, the transfer, the 50/50 ULL, the southern stream being too weak..the canadien shortwave diving down into our storm....lack of high pressure....qpf being too dry on NW side...etc That's only 7 things so we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I mean the low is over Austin, TX at 39h. The NAM practically wants to throw it in the gulf lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 the Australian model brings the primary similar to where GFS has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 This should work out to some extent at the very least. Going to need less latitude to gain as things get cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Very juicy northern stream on the NAM this run. Also seems to be holding back some f the southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Hold on...hold on...NAM might not be as bad as we fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 There is literally a 550 mile difference in where the primary low is going to be through 45 hours between the GFS and the NAM. Don' think I have EVER seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This should work out to some extent at the very least. Going to need less latitude to gain as things get cranking. Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 main thing i see is that GFS just has a more vigirious SS stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Front runner is weaker leaving more energy behind. Looks like a two wave idea coming to me. That only works if enough gets left and the front runner is weak and gets out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM is improved especially for the northern stream wave. Concerned about the lagging of the southern interaction. Issue is 50/50 holding in and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Lol... NAM Has the low over Houston now. It's gonna go into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hold on...hold on...NAM might not be as bad as we fear Only at 45 but I can see a possible save in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Wow, alot of pieces to this storm for sure. If everything phased just right what a storm it would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Every time we get a positive development, it's neutralized with that GD 50/50 moving slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Every time we get a positive development, it's neutralized with that GD 50/50 moving slower that aint a 50 50 low...thats like a 47-47 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Every time we get a positive development, it's neutralized with that GD 50/50 moving slower Yeah I was going to mention that. It's not getting out of the way as fast this run. That's going to be a sizable negative IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM is north of the previous NAM, with the low in Central Alabama. However, from my analysis of the "good looks" vs the "bag looks" this location has never been ideal for snow for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Surface low jumps to AL/MS but not much SS interaction at 54. Going to be tough getting it to organize into a coastal and turn north with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.