March 11-12 Potential Storm

[winterymix]

From the School of Hugging the Model with the snow, any snow...

the SREF plumes have a mean snow depth of 3 inches or so for DCA,

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[clskinsfan]

I cant ever remember a bigger disparity in the models at such a short lead. I mean we are not talking about slight variations on track here. We are talking completely different solutions. The major concern for me is that the Gfs solution is completely dependant on the two streams interacting. You have no phase and you end up with a miss. The Gfs is on a bit of an island now as well. I think we will know our solution at 0z tonight.

[eurojosh]

This is going to be epic.  For years we are going to look back on this storm and refer to it in threads.

I just don't know if it's going to be an epic win or an epic fail, and if those threads are going to reference it in comparison to Feb 2013 or Dec 2010...

[ATreglown]

7 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Don’t blame you.  I am in SFO waiting to board the red eye to IAD.  

Glad I didn't!!! 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, ATreglown said:

Glad I didn't!!! 

Just landed and first thing I see on phone is Ji post and the word disaster.  Always a treat.  

[winterymix]

JI is a legend...prolly working on canceling the next two winters.  

[Bob Chill]

Well, the eps rarely (if ever) diverges from the op at <4 day leads and it sure did that last night. There was more than a minor cluster looking like a gfs solution and the gfs has been the rock lately with this one. We're going to know today one way or another. After seeing the eps I'll admit I'm more optimistic than I was after the op run last night. 

Otoh- seeing the 6z gefs diverge adds another wrinkle. What's most unusual about this storm is there is a block in place but models can't agree on what's going to happen in just 2-3 days. This does not happen very often. In some ways it feels like an epic but evil divine plan to crush our spirits with maximum potential right at the closing bell on the season. 

[Hurricanegiants]

Ahh yes. Here we go. In winter’s last hurrah—I will allow myself to play the board game “Now You See It-Now You Dont” all day today. 

Simple rules: Follow the blog, allow your emotions to get swept away by comments, watch the clock for the next run, beg internally for good news—-hit refresh—and deal with the emotion until the next run. To Win is to say I have snow IMBY!!! 

Here’s a toast for willing it North today!!

[mappy]

i really hope if the 12z runs hold (meaning, GFS gives snow), we go into storm mode because there are quite a few of you who need to stop posting. 

[Ji]

Yea the gefs went south. Not good. 

Here you go man. You didn't think you were going to escape this storm without a big jb analog did you?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Here you go man. You didn't think you were going to escape this storm without a big jb analog did you?
 

 

 

 

He is like the opposite of you lol. Every vort that the atmosphere farts out is either March 93 or January 96 with him. 

That said the pattern similarity is there. This has big ticket potential. It could go down that way. Problem is when you use the worst (or best) case scenario for every threat it losses effect. Not every pattern reaches max potential the way those historic analogs he liberally tosses around did. 

[stormy]

54 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I cant ever remember a bigger disparity in the models at such a short lead. I mean we are not talking about slight variations on track here. We are talking completely different solutions. The major concern for me is that the Gfs solution is completely dependant on the two streams interacting. You have no phase and you end up with a miss. The Gfs is on a bit of an island now as well. I think we will know our solution at 0z tonight.

The Euro shifted north significantly overnight. The GFS and GEM shifted somewhat south. The likely bullseye swath for snowfall is currently trending toward southern and possibly up into central Virginia. This will likely be the final solution.

[Jandurin]

2 minutes ago, stormy said:

The Euro shifted north significantly overnight. The GFS and GEM shifted somewhat south. The likely bullseye swath for snowfall is currently trending toward southern and possibly up into central Virginia. This will likely be the final solution.

That will be the final model solution but in the last 24 hours it will nudge north just enough to make everyone happy forever.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, stormy said:

The Euro shifted north significantly overnight. The GFS and GEM shifted somewhat south. The likely bullseye swath for snowfall is currently trending toward southern and possibly up into central Virginia. This will likely be the final solution.

the upper levels between the two models are so vastly different right now. no idea which is right, but if for some chance the euro does come north, with a completely different set up in the 500 level than the gfs, then we should consider ourselves lucky. 

[Interstate]

10 of the 50 Euro Members give us a good storm or 20%.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

much more of a spread again than 00z. This is infuriating

I have been detached from this threat mostly due to work, so I have sort of a macro view of this potential event. Its never good to see this much spread and inconsistency across guidance at this stage of the game. Not saying it will necessarily be a complete miss, but the odds of a big enough event to overcome climo and marginal temps for the majority of the region seem pretty low to me. Higher elevations mostly to the S and SW of our region seem to have the best shot.

[Jandurin]

We're not even sure there's going to be a storm. ptype is pointless discussion

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I have been detached from this threat mostly due to work, so I have sort of a macro view of this potential event. Its never good to see this much spread and inconsistency across guidance at this stage of the game. Not saying it will necessarily be a complete miss, but the odds of a big enough event to overcome climo and marginal temps for the majority of the region seem pretty low to me. Higher elevations mostly to the S and SW of our region seem to have the best shot.

Well if the GFS is correct... it should be mostly an overnight storm... so we would have that going for us.

[osfan24]

Just lean on the JB model and get ready for your Blizzard of 96 redux. LOL.

[showmethesnow]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here you go man. You didn't think you were going to escape this storm without a big jb analog did you?
 

 

 

 

Actually agree with what he is saying here about the GFS. The one thing that has bugged me about the GFS is it seems to be pulling the trigger too quickly on transferring over to a coastal on the last few of its runs. Looking at the interaction of the 500's and the primary low I am not so sure I buy it.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually agree with what he is saying here about the GFS. The one thing that has bugged me about the GFS is it seems to be pulling the trigger too quickly on transferring over to a coastal on the last few of its runs. Looking at the interaction of the 500's and the primary low I am not so sure I buy it.

was thinking the same thing on the 0z and 6z runs.  Transfer looks sloppy, and if that can clean up a bit, I'd think it would help.  Just seems wonky.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, pasnownut said:

was thinking the same thing on the 0z and 6z runs.  Transfer looks sloppy, and if that can clean up a bit, I'd think it would help.  Just seems wonky.

Add that to the list of wonky things we've seen in tracking this event, lol When was the last time there was this much chaos at short range??

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Add that to the list of wonky things we've seen in tracking this event, lol When was the last time there was this much chaos at short range??

yeah its just makes me giggle as this was to be the period that looked the best and we are T-48hrs from go time, and the model spray looks like an unmanned firehose.

My chips are close to my chest right now.....

if we fail (morel likely me than you southerners), it would be a fitting "end" to winter though...no doubt

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually agree with what he is saying here about the GFS. The one thing that has bugged me about the GFS is it seems to be pulling the trigger too quickly on transferring over to a coastal on the last few of its runs. Looking at the interaction of the 500's and the primary low I am not so sure I buy it.

I don't disagree with his points on the frequent errors of both models. And I agree the gfs is messing up the transfer with the system as it often does. But I don't like tossing around HECS analogs like water the way he does. 

I agree that if the primary gets all the way into KY like the gfs ( and gefs still) suggest it's unlikely it jumps way southeast to southeast of the outer banks. That's not climo at all. The natural jump location for that setup historically is to eastern NC then a track to near VA beach and just off ocean city.  Problem is gfs is the only guidance with the primary there so it's a moot point if that's incorrect and we don't know yet. 

[Ji]

so far 12z NAM looks similar to 6z GFS

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

so far 12z NAM looks similar to 6z GFS

Too soon but at 24 changes are all good. Stronger NS vort closer to the southern one which is a little more amped and slightly north. Spacing about the same with the 50/50 but it seems most guidance agrees now that gets out of the way in time but the disagreement is if the system is in any shape to take advantage by then. 

[showmethesnow]

 

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

was thinking the same thing on the 0z and 6z runs.  Transfer looks sloppy, and if that can clean up a bit, I'd think it would help.  Just seems wonky.

That transfer is really mucking up the potential of this storm. 500's and the surface low play off of each other (as well as the levels between) to further develop so when it basically has the low jump out from underneath it's upper level support to off the coast it throws a monkey wrench into the intensification process. So we see a delay of roughly 12 hours as the 500's play catch up. 

Could the GFS be accurate in how it is playing out? Sure it has the math behind it. But when I see a primary that has decent upper level support rapidly jump from eastern Kentucky to off of Portsmouth I have to question it. I would think the more likely scenario would be a transfer later in the process a little farther north where the 500's are pretty much in lock step for a continuation of the intensification process. Needless to say the difference between these two scenarios is probably double the snow over a wider portion of the region.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Too soon but at 24 changes are all good. Stronger NS vort closer to the southern one which is a little more amped and slightly north. Spacing about the same with the 50/50 but it seems most guidance agrees now that gets out of the way in time but the disagreement is if the system is in any shape to take advantage by then. 

i dont think its too soon ha...these first 48 hours probably determine the next 48 hours. 

[Jandurin]

Considering time is continuous I think that's fair to say!

[Ji]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

 

That transfer is really mucking up the potential of this storm. 500's and the surface low play off of each other (as well as the levels between) to further develop so when it basically has the low jump out from underneath it's upper level support to off the coast it throws a monkey wrench into the intensification process. So we see a delay of roughly 12 hours as the 500's play catch up. 

Could the GFS be accurate in how it is playing out? Sure it has the math behind it. But when I see a primary that has decent upper level support rapidly jump from eastern Kentucky to off of Portsmouth I have to question it. I would think the more likely scenario would be a transfer later in the process a little farther north where the 500's are pretty much in lock step for a continuation of the intensification process. Needless to say the difference between these two scenarios is probably double the snow over a wider portion of the region.

its a wonder how we ever get snow.....like 50 things have to go right....so far this event we have worried about phasing, the transfer, the 50/50 ULL, the southern stream being too weak..the canadien shortwave diving down into our storm....lack of high pressure....qpf being too dry on NW side...etc