March 11-12 Potential Storm

[cae]

Euro looked a bit like the ICON, splitting the waves and developing the second one into something that gave snow to NC and SW VA.

At the beginning of the day the Euro, GFS, GGEM, and ICON all had the heaviest axis of snow passing through VA south of DC.  Today the GFS went north, the Euro went south, the ICON bounced around a bit, and the GGEM stayed with that same general idea of the heaviest axis passing south of DC through central VA.  I suspect that's where they'll end up. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So you're split low?  (sorry, couldn't resist) Ya think we'll know by the end of tomorrow? And again, if the GFS was gonna fold, wouldn't that have started by now? (particularly given the fact that it dug in even more tonight, lol)

Probably, the big hurdle imo is the phase the gfs pulls off around hour 48. From there the chain reaction we want starts. If it's gonna fall apart missing that is the most likely reason. That's only 36 hours from the 12z runs and 24 hours from tomorrow nights 0z. So I can't imagine the debate continues too much longer. One is gonna cave on that soon. And I'm really torn. It's a delicate situation and I can see arguments for both. 

[psuhoffman]

EPS made a pretty significant improvement. It's definitely not in line with the gefs and geps but I'd say it came 2/3 of the way. Some pretty big hits in there now. More misses but the misses are close now. Mean snowfall is 2-4" across the area. More southwest areas. It was a very big jump. 

[psuhoffman]

Nam made an improvement at h5. Not there yet but it came about half way to the gfs imo. Held back more energy and partially phased. If it didn't still eject so much in the front runner it might have been good. 

[ers-wxman1]

06z ICON folded completely. Continues with two wave idea, but first one is a sheared slider off the Southeast U.S. coast. Second still tracks well south and east of us. No hit at all. 

[Ji]

It was great with the lows up into KY and then oddly dry east of the mountains. Dunno what the deal there was, transfer issues or what but it looked suspect. Juiced up gulf systems that get into KY sub 1000mb then jump to the coast are typically qpf bombs here but dry east of the apps. 

I wonder if that's due to lack of high pressure in the favored area. I also wonder if we need the gfs primary south some so when it transfers..it dosent transfer to va capes but 50 miles more south to give us better precip potential

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

06z ICON folded completely. Continues with two wave idea, but first one is a sheared slider off the Southeast U.S. coast. Second still tracks well south and east of us. No hit at all. 

Purely anecdotal observation, but when there is so much disparity in the guidance this close to game time, it usually ends up a no go. And really it is only the GFS with a legit hit at this point.

[peribonca]

6z GFS won't back down

[Ji]

Purely anecdotal observation, but when there is so much disparity in the guidance this close to game time, it usually ends up a no go. And really it is only the GFS with a legit hit at this point.

If gfs folds it will be at 12z but its hard to imagine wholesale changes so close to game time per that model. If anything im looking for improvement

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Purely anecdotal observation, but when there is so much disparity in the guidance this close to game time, it usually ends up a no go. And really it is only the GFS with a legit hit at this point.

If gfs folds it will be at 12z but its hard to imagine wholesale changes so close to game time per that model. If anything im looking for improvement

Yeah the CMC is pretty close and the Euro at least trended in the right direction at 0z. Need to see some convergence towards a big hit. Weak or close wont cut it. Crossroads runs ahead? 

12z is gonna be YUGE.

[Ralph Wiggum]

CRAS is a crusher that hits Western parts of this subforum particularly hard, so theres that.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CRAS is a crusher that hits Western parts of this subforum particularly hard, so theres that.

Just a quick glance so far on the models. Not going to read through 10 + pages so i was wondering if you could give me a quick breakdown of your thoughts.

[Ji]

Rgem and gfs pretty close in low placement at 54

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just a quick glance so far on the models. Not going to read through 10 + pages so i was wondering if you could give me a quick breakdown of your thoughts.

Diverging solutions on guidance. GFS/GEFS/CMC/GEPS/SREF/CRAS argue N track SECS potential. Euro/NAM/NAVGEM/ICON say move along nothing to see here. Ukie in the middle. 

I posted in Philly a random thought on using synoptic meteo vs modelology. I could be wrong or off base, but you might want to check that out for sake of having to retype.

 

Lower than normal confidence for this one but Im siding with the farther N ideas. Not sure exactly what that means irt track, strength, rates, etc tho. My thoughts r the far S and squashed completely OTS off SC/GA solutions are likely being exaggerated on guidance.

 

Really interesting watching the models diverge tho. Times like this when we need to look at overall meteo synoptics and step back from models verbatim post 72 hrs. Look for guidance clues in the short range.

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

How does the breakfast GFS look this morning? Tell me i don't wanna see it, it'll jinx me

H5 hasnt changed much at all. Surface was a tick farther S and E but overall looked about steady from past few runs to me.

[snowmagnet]

The first thing I did this morning is check to see if DT posted last night. And he did and it was good.  I followed him for several years before I found this forum.  He said that theGFS was a fully phased bomb overnight and also mentioned that the GFS has been most consistent with this storm than any other model, which I think most here agree.   I know he has a bit of a bias towards Richmond, but generally he is pretty on target.  He is also bias towards the Euro, but has acknowledged it has been terribly inconsistent.  But, he said the Euro came very close overnight towards the GFS.  And I’ve learned from you all that the Euro doesn’t generally make huge shifts to big storms  so I think if it’s slightly south, we still have time.

All in all, I know this has a chance to be nothing or just some snow, but I think we are at the point where things will only get better from here. I’ve followed the patterns of coastal storms for years, and while I don’t know all the scientific parts that go into this, I believe this could be at least a MECS for the DC area.  I’d much prefer a fully formed HECS if possible. 

[ers-wxman1]

06z GFS...maintained further north track, pops good coastal. Hits much of the subforum with accumulating snow, less than 00z by a bit. Still warning level event west of 95, esp Shen Valley.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Diverging solutions on guidance. GFS/GEFS/CMC/GEPS/SREF/CRAS argue N track SECS potential. Euro/NAM/NAVGEM/ICON say move along nothing to see here. Ukie in the middle. 

I posted in Philly a random thought on using synoptic meteo vs modelology. I could be wrong or off base, but you might want to check that out for sake of having to retype.

 

Lower than normal confidence for this one but Im siding with the farther N ideas. Not sure exactly what that means irt track, strength, rates, etc tho. My thoughts r the far S and squashed completely OTS off SC/GA solutions are likely being exaggerated on guidance.

 

Really interesting watching the models diverge tho. Times like this when we need to look at overall meteo synoptics and step back from models verbatim post 72 hrs. Look for guidance clues in the short range.

 

 

 

Thanks, I will glance at your post in a sec. 

Did like the fact that it looked as if the Euro/EPS made a strong positive move towards the GFS. Whether that continues I guess we will see. Though the 06Z GFS backed down a touch I still very much liked the look. Just a hairs breadth away from something really big.

Have to agree. The far southern solutions being thrown out for the low (from some models) as it runs to our south is probably over done and probably extremely so in some cases. Think we see that eventual track end up north in the end. Anyway i look at it Western VA and Northern Va probably cash in here. Questions arise though through central Va into the coastal plain as temps could be a major issue as well as the placement of the transfer to off the coast. IMO to get anything of substance north of DC it will take at least a partial phase to get that done. Chances are that up in my neck of the woods (and PSU, Mappyland) we will need at least a partial if not a full phase to see anything more then a token snowfall. Really hoping to see that bomb/stack right off the coast which would put a good portion of the MD/N Va into play for a major snowfall.

[North Balti Zen]

Show me - agreed, for roughly bwi North we need some sort of phase - the fuller the phase the better. That’s where my focus is for today’s runs.

[Ji]

the 6z GEFS are a disaster. If the GFS is going to cave...it will be 12z

[WhiteoutMD]

6z gfs has snow but very little accumulation if any at all bummer


.

[Interstate]

6z NAM says no way

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 6z GEFS are a disaster. If the GFS is going to cave...it will be 12z

the 6z GFS did shift a little SE... is it a trend, we will see at 12z

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

the 6z GFS did shift a little SE... is it a trend, we will see at 12z

much more of a spread again than 00z. This is infuriating

[Ralph Wiggum]

I know I will take heat for this but posting it anyway as this is a weather discussion board. The CRAS is the farthest N model with this storm even as we enter the short term (60 hrs) before what many claim it enters its over-amplification bias in later panels generally.

 

Key data for this coming storm is now sitting over very sparse data regions. Not sure how many of you know much about the CRAS model, but while it is a relic irt how its physics and algorithms are processed (it has had upgrades over the years) it was one of the first and most reliable models to utilize GOES satellite imagery data into its forecasting skillset which is still this model's basis in forecast output. There is actually a very good article here on that:

 

www.ssec.wisc.edu/news/articles/10005

 

In any event, with that said and key pieces of energy sitting over sparse data regions attm, this model *probably* has some validity in its more Northern appearance with surface features over the short term up to 60 hours. Like I always say with this model, if you understand its bias and nuances it can be a decent tool for guidance and not necessarily verbatim especially in its LR. Utilizing GOES data (which other models do as well but CRAS does heavily and was created to do so) may not be a bad tool to at least look at for clues attm until our energy pulls onshore into much more favorably sampled areas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WeathermanB]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

much more of a spread again than 00z. This is infuriating

Models are still figuring out the last kinks. Should return to a snowstorm look at or after 12z GFS.

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Really interesting watching the models diverge tho. Times like this when we need to look at overall meteo synoptics and step back from models verbatim post 72 hrs. Look for guidance clues in the short range.

 

Only problem is there are good arguments for both sides. I can see how both the gfs and euro ideas have merit. It's a delicate play between the streams and phasing. Analogs don't help since there are examples of both in similar setups. 

If I had to guess I would go with a compromise and a result similar to Jan 30 2010 only march style. They probably converge somewhere south of us but then bleed north some the final 36 hours and tease us and get precip in but given the temps being in the northern edge of the precip isn't going to end well like Jan 2010 when ratios were high. The final tease in a season of them. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 6z GEFS are a disaster. If the GFS is going to cave...it will be 12z

Yea the gefs went south. Not good. 

[winterymix]

NAEFS has the surface low turning left.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Only problem is there are good arguments for both sides. I can see how both the gfs and euro ideas have merit. It's a delicate play between the streams and phasing. Analogs don't help since there are examples of both in similar setups. 

If I had to guess I would go with a compromise and a result similar to Jan 30 2010 only march style. They probably converge somewhere south of us but then bleed north some the final 36 hours and tease us and get precip in but given the temps being in the northern edge of the precip isn't going to end well like Jan 2010 when ratios were high. The final tease in a season of them. 

I honestly have very little confidence in the Euro at this time. All I need to do is flip back through its recent runs to see it has handled the 500's very poorly with the lead in to our storm. Then when I see what I consider a major shift towards the GFS on its latest run I have to believe that odds favor that the final solution will strongly favor the GFS. If in fact the GFS solution is generally the correct one and if in fact the Euro now sees it and is locking onto it then following Euro runs will now be of some value as it will help to iron out the finer details.