March 11-12 Potential Storm

[kurtstack]

i think there are only two outcomes left the no phase slider (ukie and nam) or the phased gfs type - i dont think there will be many solutions in between.  Its all or nothing.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

i think there are only two outcomes left the no phase slider (ukie and nam) or the phased gfs type - i dont think there will be many solutions in between.  Its all or nothing.

Yes I agree.  It’s either a 1 or 0.  No other options for our latitude.  

[cae]

Looking at the high-res maps, GEPS is a slight improvement from 12z, which was a slight improvement from last night.  Snowfall mean imby is now nearly 5" (assuming 10:1) and only 6/21 members give me less than 1".

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 minutes ago, cae said:

Looking at the high-res maps, GEPS is a slight improvement from 12z, which was a slight improvement from last night.  Snowfall mean imby is now nearly 5" (assuming 10:1) and only 6/21 members give me less than 1".

Where do you see the high res maps?

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

i think there are only two outcomes left the no phase slider (ukie and nam) or the phased gfs type - i dont think there will be many solutions in between.  Its all or nothing.

That's been my feeling about this all week...and today's model runs are certainly bearing it out!

[Amped]

Euro still further east than the GFS  low pressure over TX still at 24. Probably will stick to it's 12z.

[Chase]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Tell us more...

 

 

[cae]

16 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Where do you see the high res maps?

I download the GRIB files from the server.

http://dd.weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/grib2/raw/

The high-res ones have 0p5x0p5 in the name.

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mean bumped up actually. And far fewer whiffs. It's a better run than 18z. No other way to describe it. 

It was great with the lows up into KY and then oddly dry east of the mountains. Dunno what the deal there was, transfer issues or what but it looked suspect. Juiced up gulf systems that get into KY sub 1000mb then jump to the coast are typically qpf bombs here but dry east of the apps. 

[Amped]

Looks a bit like the CMC at 72, but it's  slower and weaker. Euro 72 matches with CMC 66 at the surface.

[Deck Pic]

Next 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Next 

Could the Euro be that far off this close in? Doesn’t seem like it’s possible.  

[Bob Chill]

Euro is more than a little away from a phased gfs soltuion. This is short range stuff too. One of them is going to be taken to the woodshed. Unfortunately I thinks it's the gfs. Euro has been really steady in general and we're not talking long leads anymore. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

@ 84 it’s definitely better than 12z. No doubt there.

[psuhoffman]

Geps

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

GFS is on an island by itself. no sane person would think its going to snow. Its definitely going to snow. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is more than a little away from a phased gfs soltuion. This is short range stuff too. One of them is going to be taken to the woodshed. Unfortunately I thinks it's the gfs. Euro has been really steady in general and we're not talking long leads anymore. 

Sucks we finally get close to a good event and we can’t get model consensus.  

[caviman2201]

It would be fitting of this winter if the only time the GFS loses to the Euro is when it shows us getting a big one.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

It would be fitting of this winter if the only time the GFS loses to the Euro is when it shows us getting a big one.

GFS upped the ante from 18z to 0z.  That should count for something. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The trough looks to go negative as the coastal pops off the Carolina's.

[snowdude]

I will say the GFS has been fairly consistent while the Euro seems to have a different solution (sometimes way different). Look at tonight’s. No where close to its 12z, especially at the surface. Still time for changes and one model will fold tomorrow.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is more than a little away from a phased gfs soltuion. This is short range stuff too. One of them is going to be taken to the woodshed. Unfortunately I thinks it's the gfs. Euro has been really steady in general and we're not talking long leads anymore. 

Euro is way better at 0z

H5 looks very improved and it isnt that far away from a coastal storm.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sucks we finally get close to a good event and we can’t get model consensus.  

I'm divided...the euro is better. No doubt there. But it's missing the pieces early that get the gfs amped. This war is unusual. I can see how the euro could make a gfs move but it's so far away I'm not sure if I can believe it's in the realm 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm divided...the euro is better. No doubt there. But it's missing the pieces early that get the gfs amped. This war is unusual. I can see how the euro could make a gfs move but it's so far away I'm not sure if I can believe it's in the realm 

We don’t have too long to wait and see how this ends.  Gotta say in my weenie brain seeing GFS improve from 18z to 0z was gold. Like that Tom Petty song it Won’t back down.    

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is more than a little away from a phased gfs soltuion. This is short range stuff too. One of them is going to be taken to the woodshed. Unfortunately I thinks it's the gfs. Euro has been really steady in general and we're not talking long leads anymore. 

This is what has been frustrating about this...the last two days I've been thinking that if the Euro is right, you'd expect that the GFS would've started folding. But instead, it even trended better today. If it's gonna fall, it's got to happen by the end of tomorrow, right? (Or is it gonna go from hit to SC slider at the last minute? Lol)

[BristowWx]

That said the normally weenie NAM didn’t look so hot.  Usually we toss it at range but still it gives pause.  When I land the 6z should be done.  Bring it home fellas.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is more than a little away from a phased gfs soltuion. This is short range stuff too. One of them is going to be taken to the woodshed. Unfortunately I thinks it's the gfs. Euro has been really steady in general and we're not talking long leads anymore. 

It's troubling but I'm not so sure anymore.

1. The euro hasn't been very reliable lately.  Even the presidents weekend event it was right for the wrong reason. It kept placing the jet streak band of snow over us when in the end the metros got the northern edge of the convective banding with baroclinicity wave. The jet enhanced band ended up way up in central PA. Gfs was better with hinting at that as well as it can given its lower resolution.  There have been other issues I have with it but imo the euro hasn't been stellar. 

2. When the gfs has been off its typically been under amped. It was south with the wave presidents weekend from 72 hours. It was southeast with the early January bomb from 3 days. Same with the early December snow. It hasn't been over amped in general. So this goes against its recent bias. 

3.  The euro has been inconsistent in being way over amped sometimes but then under amped others like presidents weekend when it totally misses the big totals in central PA and northern NJ. Or a few days ago when until 36 hours out it was showing a miss for anyone west of NYC. Then it over corrected west one run only to settle back to what the gfs was showing from 3 days out. 

4.  The gfs isn't totally on its own anymore. The geps is pretty hot and heavy on this now too. And while it's not gefs or EPS level it's not total garbage and it's not been over amped from my experience lately. If anything the geps has been the most stingy with snow the last 2 years. But it's even more on board then the gefs. 

5.  So the euro is left with the U.K. Which has been wildly inconsistent also and a bunch of really end of the bench b team talent like the navgem. 

All that doesn't mean the gfs is right. And it could compromise and that's no good either. But I'm not so sure the euro is gonna win here. I'm split 50/50 right now. 

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro also makes changes very gradually.  No big run to run moves most of the time.  IMO that was a significant change and in 2-3 runs it could easily match the GFS 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm divided...the euro is better. No doubt there. But it's missing the pieces early that get the gfs amped. This war is unusual. I can see how the euro could make a gfs move but it's so far away I'm not sure if I can believe it's in the realm 

The euro is handling that wave diving into the lakes way different then any other guidance. It also had a really weak stj wave. That second issue bothered me more. But it seems to have corrected that but now it crashes that lakes vort into the party. It's all over the place. Yea most runs end the same imby but gets there totally different ways. I have no confidence in the euro anymore. My pessimism says it might be right just cause it fits the seasonal fail but my analytical side says the gfs might be onto it here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's troubling but I'm not so sure anymore.

1. The euro hasn't been very reliable lately.  Even the presidents weekend event it was right for the wrong reason. It kept placing the jet streak band of snow over us when in the end the metros got the northern edge of the convective banding with baroclinicity wave. The jet enhanced band ended up way up in central PA. Gfs was better with hinting at that as well as it can given its lower resolution.  There have been other issues I have with it but imo the euro hasn't been stellar. 

2. When the gfs has been off its typically been under amped. It was south with the wave presidents weekend from 72 hours. It was southeast with the early January bomb from 3 days. Same with the early December snow. It hasn't been over amped in general. So this goes against its recent bias. 

3.  The euro has been inconsistent in being way over amped sometimes but then under amped others like presidents weekend when it totally misses the big totals in central PA and northern NJ. Or a few days ago when until 36 hours out it was showing a miss for anyone west of NYC. Then it over corrected west one run only to settle back to what the gfs was showing from 3 days out. 

4.  The gfs isn't totally on its own anymore. The geps is pretty hot and heavy on this now too. And while it's not gefs or EPS level it's not total garbage and it's not been over amped from my experience lately. If anything the geps has been the most stingy with snow the last 2 years. But it's even more on board then the gefs. 

5.  So the euro is left with the U.K. Which has been wildly inconsistent also and a bunch of really end of the bench b team talent like the navgem. 

All that doesn't mean the gfs is right. And it could compromise and that's no good either. But I'm not so sure the euro is gonna win here. I'm split 50/50 right now. 

So you're split low?  (sorry, couldn't resist) Ya think we'll know by the end of tomorrow? And again, if the GFS was gonna fold, wouldn't that have started by now? (particularly given the fact that it dug in even more tonight, lol)