psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Jebman said: gefs is about 35 percent crush job, 35 percent moderate snow, 30 percent whiff. Truth is somewhere in the middle I suspect Those were 18z. Curious to see if 0z ups the ante a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I've liked the not suppressed all along. March Magic happens at night and I think this will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Those were 18z. Curious to see if 0z ups the ante a little. We both already know it will but it won't make me feel even a micrometer more confident about anything. We're practically in a short range model war with the spread being anywhere between solid and cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We both already know it will but it won't make me feel even a micrometer more confident about anything. We're practically in a short range model war with the spread being anywhere between solid and cirrus So you’re saying we need to la la lock it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I would like to see the thickness come down, 537 dm without strong dynamics is very marginal for snow at low elevations. Up on hills, sure, 3-5" (from what I've seen of CMC and GFS). At least it comes through at night, that's good for marginal. But get a bit more cold air into the mix and this could explode to 10-15" (I have been in the northern stream packet of this today here, 2" snow to noon then .02" rain pm, and that's at 1500' asl ,, 00z analysis shows my location in the same position as the 72h prog chart for DCA for thickness and upper level flow WSW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Those were 18z. Curious to see if 0z ups the ante a little. The op GFS should be deadly at this range. If the Euro holds with a whiff then one of them needs a software update. We are 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: The op GFS should be deadly at this range. If the Euro holds with a whiff then one of them needs a software update. We are 72 hours out. the GFS has been so good this year, it seems like the EURO used to be as good as the GFS is this year. thats how it got to be Dr. NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We both already know it will but it won't make me feel even a micrometer more confident about anything. We're practically in a short range model war with the spread being anywhere between solid and cirrus Due to their group think they won't add confidence the gfs is right. But if they are bad they do indicate the gfs op was a fluke. So it's a case of them being good simply because they don't argue against it. Not that they lend additional confidence other than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 WOW, Like 6 pages in 1 hour. Crazy!! It's just too much, these models can drive a normal person bat, shiatz crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Hey they can generate six pages a minute in New England and still not have a clear decision on which side of Taunton the rain-snow line will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 What i liked about tonights run is a huge key lol and its only 30-42 hours out lol. The Northern stream is actually ahead of southern stream almost guaranteeing a phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: What i liked about tonights run is a huge key lol and its only 18 hours out lol. The Northern stream is actually ahead of southern stream almost guaranteeing a phase Thought you were going to sleep...might as well wait for the Euro...since you are up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Since meteocentre appears to be down... Ukie looks OTS. Might be better than 12z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: I've liked the not suppressed all along. March Magic happens at night and I think this will I'm not sure there has ever been a suppressed snowstorm in March before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Ian said: I'm not sure there has ever been a suppressed snowstorm in March before. 3/9/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: 3/9/17 Ok so maybe a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Thought you were going to sleep...might as well wait for the Euro...since you are up I am still up too, but going to turn in. It still gives me 1.5 hrs more sleep. Which I really need. Not worth the EURO to stay up the way it has been playing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Ok so maybe a few. 3 12 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Gefs looks good. Bump up from 18z. The key change is it has more lows running the coast and getting NJ northward now so few if any sliders, many good hits, and lots of good tracks. If the gfs/gefs is right then it's a pretty major score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Euro won't have it....good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 welp event the GEFS disagrees with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Gefs low positions are a slight improvement over 18z. There are a handful like the op. One even inside the runs up the Delmarva. The rest are a bit outside the track. The mean is a bit east of the op but north of the 18z especially initially into KY and NC. Later they end up about the same off MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Gefs looks good. Bump up from 18z. The key change is it has more lows running the coast and getting NJ northward now so few if any sliders, many good hits, and lots of good tracks. If the gfs/gefs is right then it's a pretty major score. Any 12-24 hecs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, ATreglown said: I am still up too, but going to turn in. It still gives me 1.5 hrs more sleep. Which I really need. Not worth the EURO to stay up the way it has been playing!! Don’t blame you. I am in SFO waiting to board the red eye to IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Gefs total precip decreased slightly for the corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs looks good. Bump up from 18z. The key change is it has more lows running the coast and getting NJ northward now so few if any sliders, many good hits, and lots of good tracks. If the gfs/gefs is right then it's a pretty major score. Any 12-24 hecs? Here's the qpf panels. No maulings but the crap camp shrunk significantly. Better than 18z because there is less divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Gefs total precip decreased slightly for the corridor. Mean bumped up actually. And far fewer whiffs. It's a better run than 18z. No other way to describe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: welp event the GEFS disagrees with the GFS. I guess it thinks that 1040 high is going to push it east and out. Usually need the high over the top, not out to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 pretty much what I expected, right in the middle. The great thing is less whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 GEPS looks like it got better again. I count about 5 members with less than 1" for my backyard. Some big hits. I won't have mean snowfall until the high-res maps come out, but I suspect it went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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