Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: It really won't work. Seriously.we need to get in to some serious deform to get a meaningful accumulation. It will if it's at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: I will stop now. I am too jaded to be positive #fingersoffkeyboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Canadian looks closer to a hit (based on surface panel at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: It really won't work. Seriously.we need to get in to some serious deform to get a meaningful accumulation. I had mid 40's and rain that switched to snow in the mid 30's and stick no problem a few days ago. Don't take this the wrong way but your posts really do suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not real surprising to see this hit.. Look at all these 990s ns lows up in Kentucky and north Tenn. at 18z compared to previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Ukie looks better then 12z but is by no means like the GFS Where are you getting UKIE at 11pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: It’s going to be another 24 hours before the models resolve the moving parts. Til then we will be all over the place. Over in the banter topic I wasnt on the ledge, I was just pizzed at my pos dad for making me leave that once in a lifetime snow squall at 445pm this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Going to bet GEFS has a number of major hits exceeding a foot, some 18+ in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 CMC is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, peribonca said: Onto CMC... We need more converts tonight CMC is better. Just a bit too SE and offshore with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Wait for the euro to kill every cell of hope currently stored in your biosphere. That's what we're all going to do. Not happening. Going to bed happy at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 CMC did not have the same amplitude of the western ridge and wasn't as clean with the NS/SS interaction. I haven't seen the surface panels but it's not perty looking like the GFS at 500. Edit: But it is a big improvement compared to its prior runs and gets some light stuff into the region so it is definitely moving towards the GFS type solution. See the trend below from the last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't take this the wrong way but your posts really do suck. I have to admit this made me laugh. Somebody should make this their tag line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Going to bet GEFS has a number of major hits exceeding a foot, some 18+ in there. I bet a few will be 12+... but 18+ will probably be a real stretch IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, mattb65 said: CMC did not have the same amplitude of the western ridge and wasn't as clean with the NS/SS interaction. I haven't seen the surface panels but it's not perty looking like the GFS at 500. DC north gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just took a look at the NASA GEOS-5 model (https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/weather/wxmaps/). The maps are terrible to read but the 12z run was super amped- precip shield to lake erie and ptype would be an issue all the way back to i81 based on 850s. https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/weather/wxmaps/static/plots/d7f739b8-e604-30ef-b90c-59f306b6cbca.png I know people love to use it for aerosol transport and reanalysis but not sure how it does in these situations. Just another data point to balance the ecmwf run I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 CMC looks much improved and won’t take much to turn into a significant hit. It’s just a bit weaker with the N/S energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Where are you getting UKIE at 11pm? https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 its horrible on the eyes but early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I know we kill the gfs but this storm is born in 48 hours. I can't recall the gfs making dramatic swings in this time range. It may tick a little north or south but im confident in what it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: Just took a look at the NASA GEOS-5 model (https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/weather/wxmaps/). The maps are terrible to read but the 12z run was super amped- precip shield to lake erie and ptype would be an issue all the way back to i81 based on 850s. https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/weather/wxmaps/static/plots/d7f739b8-e604-30ef-b90c-59f306b6cbca.png I know people love to use it for aerosol transport and reanalysis but not sure how it does in these situations. Just another data point to balance the ecmwf run I guess. Thanks for the post and link. Very interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: I know we kill the gfs but this storm is born in 48 hours. I can't recall the gfs making dramatic swings in this time range. It may tick a little north or south but im confident in what it has It happens every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not real surprising to see this hit.. Look at all these 990s ns or "primary" lows up in Kentucky and north Tenn. at 18z compared to previous runs That is a CLASSIC DC track. Into Kentucky and jump to OBX. That is as good as it gets for our area track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Snow on snow Wed...unless you live inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, yoda said: I bet a few will be 12+... but 18+ will probably be a real stretch IMO Maybe not. 18z gefs had a few pushing that type of qpf envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Snow on snow Wed...unless you live inside the beltway. That's the one im more focused on unless its happening at 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 It happens every day.What happens every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Watch the ensembles be way south with only one member giving us snow. The operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Snow on snow Wed...unless you live inside the beltway. That's the one im more focused on unless its happening at 2pm You are something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 gefs is about 35 percent crush job, 35 percent moderate snow, 30 percent whiff. Truth is somewhere in the middle I suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: gefs is about 35 percent crush job, 35 percent moderate snow, 30 percent whiff. Truth is somewhere in the middle I suspect You had me at 35% crush job. I stopped reading after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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