Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Based on the laser scope consistency of the ukie lately, I'm expecting a cut to Detroit in 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, PDIII said: Hey... It looks fine.. but I still think jis analysis hold true. Unless we get epic rates... This solution will be a tease. It is definitely a good run.. I will leave it at that. But we need just a little more amplification to get in the good stuff. I am happy. Pretty sure it has been starting at night time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: It is still feel the friggin LP in NS is helping to shred the NW side of the storm and fear that will be partially why qpf is hindered on NW side. boy do i wanna be wrong. that deal scoots a little more...not a lot, just a little (helping slow our storm down). Im in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Ok, you either lock this run in exactly or take your chances. What do you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: It is I don't know though. According to Amped, there shouldn't even be precip on the map. Did you hear? At 39 hours, the NW burbs of Oklahoma City, just off the John Kilpatrick Turnpike had .10 less rain. GFS is probably right with the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Based on the laser scope consistency of the ukie lately, I'm expecting a cut to Detroit in 30 mins. Thats if we can find another website to show the run... meteocentre usually has it by 1140 but its down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It is I was wondering the same thing. With where that low is I was expecting more dark blue, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Pretty sure it has been starting at night time Yeah... Definitely a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Uniform 1" of precip for most areas surrounding DC This could work. Not saying it would be a crusher, but the panel from 6z-12z Monday is the heaviest precip, so most of it happens late night, early morning. That's big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can you check the CRAS, eta-x and MM5? Not sure if any of those models beat the GFS as soundly as the ICON did a couple of storms ago. It's actually not as bad as it first looked. It splits the waves. Misses with the first to our south, similar to the Euro, but then develops the second one into something that clips southwest VA before heading out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Key things I’m seeing is a weaker 50/50 and east. N/S is stronger, stays formidable, phases with S/S and has a closed low abeit 540dam not the greatest, but enough to pop coastal and capture where we need it. If that closed ULL deepens into 534 range and goes bit more neg tilt that low will bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Ok, I'm done. Seriously...we press on. Until the Euro pushes people back to the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Lol JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Should see Feb 5-6 2010 rise back on the list. Maybe Dec 2009 since it goes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Ok, you either lock this run in exactly or take your chances. What do you do? See my post from previous page. At least we can all go to sleep tonight with the comfort of the models finally coming to a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Ian said: Should see Feb 5-6 2010 rise back on the list. Maybe Dec 2009 since it goes up the coast. Stop it. Stop it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 we got the O-face run!! Will the inconsistent jumpy euro come back to the gfs phased look? This has been an interesting week of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I was wondering the same thing. With where that low is I was expecting more dark blue, lol Gfs is awful with qpf on the nw side of coastals. I wouldn't worry too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Ok, you either lock this run in exactly or take your chances. What do you do? Wait for the euro to kill every cell of hope currently stored in your biosphere. That's what we're all going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ok, I'm done. Seriously...we press on. Until the Euro pushes people back to the ledge Don't think the ledge is warranted unless the GFS starts to fold. If it holds steady...then both solutions still on the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Ukie looks better then 12z but is by no means like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 GFS is close to a MECS not only here, but up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You got .75 in 12 hours. Isn't that an epic fail? Wont work in the sun It really won't work. Seriously.we need to get in to some serious deform to get a meaningful accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Last night, I didn't stay up for Euro and it was bad. Tonight, I will stay up for Euro. Last time I stayed up for Euro was the one time it showed the storm 2-3 days ago. We may have lost the icon, but king euro GFS will always deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Models will sort things out. Its just a few hiccups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Stop it. Stop it right now. It's not an awful match except we have a #fakestj. It is March etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, PDIII said: It really won't work. Seriously.we need to get in to some serious deform to get a meaningful accumulation. I will stop now. I am too jaded to be positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is awful with qpf on the nw side of coastals. I wouldn't worry too much. Oh yeah, not worried...just wondering. I know that's the kind of detail that get A ironed out closer to gametime anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Ukie looks better then 12z but is by no means like the GFS more details please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Jebman said: Models will sort things out. Its just a few hiccups. It’s going to be another 24 hours before the models resolve the moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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