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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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Just now, PDIII said:

Hey... It looks fine.. but I still think jis analysis hold true. Unless we get epic rates... This solution will be a tease. 

 

It is definitely a good run.. I will leave it at that. But we need just a little more amplification to get in the good stuff.

I am happy.

 

Pretty sure it has been starting at night time

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It is 

still feel the friggin LP in NS is helping to shred the NW side of the storm and fear that will be partially why qpf is hindered on NW side.  boy do i wanna be wrong.  that deal scoots a little more...not a lot, just a little (helping slow our storm down).

Im in.

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Can you check the CRAS, eta-x and MM5?

Not sure if any of those models beat the GFS as soundly as the ICON did a couple of storms ago. 

It's actually not as bad as it first looked.  It splits the waves.  Misses with the first to our south, similar to the Euro, but then develops the second one into something that clips southwest VA before heading out to sea.

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Key things I’m seeing is a weaker 50/50 and east. N/S is stronger, stays formidable, phases with S/S and has a closed low abeit 540dam not the greatest, but enough to pop coastal and capture where we need it. If that closed ULL deepens into 534 range and goes bit more neg tilt that low will bomb out. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
You got .75 in 12 hours. Isn't that an epic fail?

Wont work in the sun

It really won't work. Seriously.we need to get in to some serious deform to get a meaningful accumulation.

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