Jandurin Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Baby Steps... It's really all we need Just a few things to go right just a little and nothing at all to go wrongSimple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 At 42, SLP further west and ULL in Maine noticeably further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 That Western ridge is really flexing. Between that feature and the farther N ull that *should* bump the end result N vs 18z later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 That Western ridge is really flexing. Between that feature and the farther N ull that *should* bump the end result N vs 18z later panels.That is a noticeable difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That Western ridge is really flexing. Between that feature and the farther N ull that *should* bump the end result N vs 18z later panels. That is a noticeable difference Norther SW digging quicker south through 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: here is my problem with this storm right now...its not a HECS and without a HECS, its probably going to be a non event. If the models give us 4-8 inches.....im out because thats not going to work. 4-8 will be 2-3 and we will be done unless it comes in a 6 hour period which we know is not happening. HECS or bust This is probably the most sensible analysis I have seen for this storm.. it is sad.. but basically right. We need something similar to what the northeast just had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 SS SW is a touch flatter at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, PDIII said: This is probably the most sensible analysis I have seen for this storm.. it is sad.. but basically right. We need something similar to what the northeast just had Perhaps not. They got most of their snow during the day. Like I said, 0.75"-1" per hour could work during the night (or the front end thump) for a 6 hour or longer period. Either way, here's to hoping this storm drops 1"+ QPF (if we get precip at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 21 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: No in shepherdstown we got 40 inches. biggest storm of my life forever for sure. It was a sexual innuendo though from jonah.. Ok I’m only going to tell you once. Knock it off and make better posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 While the ULL over Maine is further N its also slightly W, so it looks like to my amateur eyes that its actually lowering heights a touch along the EC through 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 here is my problem with this storm right now...its not a HECS and without a HECS, its probably going to be a non event. If the models give us 4-8 inches.....im out because thats not going to work. 4-8 will be 2-3 and we will be done unless it comes in a 6 hour period which we know is not happening. HECS or bustYou're the starving man at death's door struggling to find a morsel of nourishment to stay alive being offered a stick of beef jerky by a passer-by but throwing it in the garbage while demanding steak and lobster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Stitched together the 3 best and 3 worst runs. You'll want to zoom in some or download the image to really see how it works. Some common features: The three best runs feature a low that hangs west or north really early on in its evolution. The worst runs bring the low deep into Alabama or more east. The three best runs are all inland at 96h. The three worst feature a strong low off the coast and an early transfer. Two of the three best runs have pretty strong precip shields to the north at 102, but interestingly, e18 shows that even without a super amped system, we can still score. e18 slowly tracks up the coast after looking like it would miss us. If it were op we'd think we were getting fringed. The three worst runs just head out to sea and still hang back a low over the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 ULL NW of 18z...SS sw south..hoping it recovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 At 66 hours the trough tilt is less positive if nothing else. We'll see how the run turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: ULL NW of 18z...SS sw south..hoping it recovers Surface low better make a sharp left if we are to get something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The PNA ridge seems to be trending favorably on guidance but that dang 50/50 pinwheeling and wobbling around is wreaking havoc with our storm track. A little weaker or wobble at the right time, its N. A little stronger or ....well, you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Surface low better make a sharp left if we are to get something out of this. That move into northern ME is less than ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NYC metro forum thinks this storm will hit them lol. Keeps going south in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Unorganized mess...blah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Precip reaches into DC... but thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM looks like one of those "3 worst runs" solutions I posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: ULL NW of 18z...SS sw south..hoping it recovers looks like the nam is ejecting that southern low out ahead again, so there might be limiting phasing. even the cmc held the primary back longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Well on to King GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Precip reaches into DC... but thats it I think you have the wrong run...doesn’t get out of Southern Va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM is awfulCome on dude...nam isn't useful till like 24 and it still screwed us yesterday. Plus all that convection..etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Precip reaches into DC... but thats it It does? Not one drop gets into DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, 87storms said: looks like the nam is ejecting that southern low out ahead again, so there might be limiting phasing. even the cmc held the primary back longer. It’s definitely quicker and the NS squashes it...that damn ULL doesn’t help either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Precip reaches into DC... but thats itWhat?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 It does? Not one drop gets into DCAwful lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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