March 11-12 Potential Storm

[Coach McGuirk]

2/21/2012?

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, cae said:

I'm under the impression that it has been jumpy as well.  I think meteocentre has old Ukie Runs archived, so maybe I should see if I can find a home for them in the model discussion thread.

The Euro has been the best model this year.  When I put together the maps of the model runs from yesterday's event, I was surprised to see that the Euro had something similar to what actually happened from 10 days out and never really lost it. 

But it can make mistakes too.  It really struggled with the event on January 17th, and it appears to be an outlier here.  My guess is that the Euro comes back tonight with some snowfall in VA, but I think it's also a good sign that the other models are more likely to trend towards more suppressed solutions.

Agree.  Take that 50/50 away from the equation from that 18z op run and we have an amped warm precip bomb.  Few inches beats heavy rain and SE winds.  It was scary just watching the run come in.  Couple more ticks north and a lot of us get rain.  I like where we are at...sort of

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agree.  Take that 50/50 away from the equation from that 18z op run and we have an amped warm precip bomb.  Few inches beats heavy rain and SE winds.  It was scary just watching the run come in.  Couple more ticks north and a lot of us get rain.  I like where we are at...sort of

Take that 45/65 away and we will be fine. The 50/50 is fine and historically beneficial.

[Cobalt]

 

[WEATHER53]

As I shared around 2pm, this will not be suppressed 

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

As I shared around 2pm, this will not be suppressed 

i could see it being more sheared/weak/blah than a strong/suppressed storm.  the key might be how vigorous that NS vort is.  this might be a case where we actually want a stronger NS interaction to maybe kick the 50/50 low further east.  the mets can correct me if i'm making no sense.

[Cobalt]

More knowledgeable folks, these panels are a sign that the warm air is weak and only at the surface, right?

and 925 temps

I'm assuming this means surface temps would cool down as soon as precip starts falling?

 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

More knowledgeable folks, these panels are a sign that the warm air is weak and only at the surface, right?

 

and 925 temps

 

I'm assuming this means surface temps would cool down as soon as precip starts falling?

 

Yes, here is the sounding for the same time.  950 and above are all below freezing so temps would drop as precip starts falling.

[Ji]

here is my problem with this storm right now...its not a HECS and without a HECS, its probably going to be a non event. If the models give us 4-8 inches.....im out because thats not going to work. 4-8 will be 2-3 and we will be done unless it comes in a 6 hour period which we know is not happening.

 

HECS or bust

[87storms]

53 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

here's that one...hopefully that's not how it turns out...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2012&month=2&day=18&hour=0&minute=0

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is my problem with this storm right now...its not a HECS and without a HECS, its probably going to be a non event. If the models give us 4-8 inches.....im out because thats not going to work. 4-8 will be 2-3 and we will be done unless it comes in a 6 hour period which we know is not happening.

 

HECS or bust

Can’t believe I’m saying it, but I agree. Give me a HECS or nothing at all.

[Cobalt]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is my problem with this storm right now...its not a HECS and without a HECS, its probably going to be a non event. If the models give us 4-8 inches.....im out because thats not going to work. 4-8 will be 2-3 and we will be done unless it comes in a 6 hour period which we know is not happening.

 

HECS or bust

GFS drops 0.4-0.6" of precip in that area that jackpots at the heaviest (in 6 hours). I'm assuming 1" QPF would be 5 or 6", 1.25" 6.5" or 7", 1.5" 8 or 9" and so on. If the GFS is to be believed, there are 2 rounds. Round 1 would be a thump into the late night/early morning hours (good timing), and then a little lul in the action, and finally a backend thump in the late afternoon (not the best timing)

 

[87storms]

i like this one better...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=1996&month=1&day=6&hour=0&minute=0

[Cobalt]

This is the back end thump btw. No better panels, but I'm assuming it would look better if the storm were a bit north along with the front end thump 

If that front end thump is legit (and pointed at our area rather than Fredericksburg) then a 4-6" base isn't terrible for the 0.25"-0.5" rates in the afternoon (4-6" is implying the 0.2-0.3" of precip that falls in the same area before the front end thump panel would fall on us too, so that's assuming 0.6"-0.9" of precip in a 7:1 or 6:1 ratio) and then another burst of snow in the late afternoon. Hopefully the GFS bias is still there and it's under doing precip. Sorry for my unscientific posts, but that's just what I saw with the GFS, and how it's timing could be beneficial.

Of course we need the other models to trend toward its track first

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is my problem with this storm right now...its not a HECS and without a HECS, its probably going to be a non event. If the models give us 4-8 inches.....im out because thats not going to work. 4-8 will be 2-3 and we will be done unless it comes in a 6 hour period which we know is not happening.

 

HECS or bust

This is correct.  2-3 inches of slop is pointless garbage.  Unless models are showing 1.0 QPF with good dynamics I’d rather just have spring. 

[Roger Smith]

Track's good, you need a colder high than models are providing, or it goes over to sleet and rain. This may work out closer to the time if the current NE low pulls down a bit more cold air. The heavy snow pack in eastern NY state has to be helpful to your chances of getting surface cold ahead of this system. Good luck with this one! 

[Cobalt]

Cranky is a bit bearish, but reasonable at this range

 

[real]

17 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

This is correct.  2-3 inches of slop is pointless garbage.  Unless models are showing 1.0 QPF with good dynamics I’d rather just have spring. 

That is what happened in NYC just yesterday. Got to think we need at least 6 to 8 inches  to overcome the Urban heat island effect in the cities in March

 

[Fozz]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is my problem with this storm right now...its not a HECS and without a HECS, its probably going to be a non event. If the models give us 4-8 inches.....im out because thats not going to work. 4-8 will be 2-3 and we will be done unless it comes in a 6 hour period which we know is not happening.

 

HECS or bust

I mostly agree except I think a MECS (10”+) can also pull it off, just as long as we get high rates and good dynamics. Otherwise with light rates, it’s like NYC vs the north Jersey hills in this past storm.

[Cobalt]

Don't care about the information the poster wrote (he's a SNE twitter account after all) but those analogs don't look half bad

 

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

21z SREF snow probs, storms gonna come up the coast

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Don't care about the information the poster wrote (he's a SNE twitter account after all) but those analogs don't look half bad

 

I only got 6 inches from jonah

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I mostly agree except I think a MECS (10”+) can also pull it off, just as long as we get high rates and good dynamics. Otherwise with light rates, it’s like NYC vs the north Jersey hills in this past storm.

I have a feeling if the timing is correct, 1.0" QPF in less than 16 hours could pull it off. And by pull it off I mean winter storm warning (5"+). If the timing were that the heaviest precip happened during the day, then we would need some more juice of course.

[Cobalt]

Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

I only got 6 inches from jonah

In Westminister? How is that possible?

[87storms]

still see that precip showing up near ky at 33 in response to the high off the se coast.  it's an interesting feature.  the gulf is definitely open for business with this system.

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

In Westminister? How is that possible?

No in shepherdstown we got 40 inches. biggest storm of my life forever for sure. It was a sexual innuendo though from jonah..

[Jandurin]

That is what happened in NYC just yesterday. Got to think we need at least 6 to 8 inches  to overcome the Urban heat island effect in the cities in March
 

Don't care about dc except that I'll double its totals if we can get a storm

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

No in shepherdstown we got 40 inches. biggest storm of my life forever for sure. It was a sexual innuendo though from jonah..

ah, got it. 

[LP08]

The Maine ULL is further north though 39 on the NAM

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just now, LP08 said:

The Maine ULL is further north though 39 on the NAM

Baby Steps...