Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I like the cluster of tucked in lows.nice move but expected with the group think idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, H2O said: My guess is that if the 0z shows a favorable solution then a storm mode thread could be made I think it kinda turnrd into a free for all after the 12z Euro...lol Man I hope we get more consensus at 0z. If not...the adventure continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I don't ever remember there being this much disagreement between the GFS and Euro at 72 hours. Pretty astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I don't ever remember there being this much disagreement between the GFS and Euro at 72 hours. Pretty astounding. I know we want the GFS to be right but why is the Euro wrong? I mean we can’t answer that but now but it’s still not a jv model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GEFS looks like it took a major step in the right direction y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18z GEFS for those who are hangin' in for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: GEFS looks like it took a major step in the right direction y'all. Yes but I thought we are out of GEFS usefulness range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I know we want the GFS to be right but why is the Euro wrong? I mean we can’t answer that but now but it’s still not a jv model. It' just crazy the distance between the 2. All the jv models are basically in between them so who knows who's right It' s hard to believe either one would be this wrong 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Yes but I thought we are out of GEFS usefulness range. Not unless it shows snow for our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z GEFS for those who are hangin' in for this one. Was just about to post. That's a pretty crazy ensemble run. 15/20 members get some frozen (0.1" according to the maps or more), and of those 15, 8 give DC 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I'll take member #3 but higher snow totals. We deserve a big March snow, but it's rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Mordecai said: Not unless it shows snow for our region Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Mordecai said: Not unless it shows snow for our region Roger. Makes sense to me. And we have the ICON which if correct will live up to its name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Until a storm mode thread is made it would be nice for people to only make posts with substance moving forward. We let you all have your pity party this afternoon. Let’s tighten up some. Thanks, your stalwart staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I don't ever remember there being this much disagreement between the GFS and Euro at 72 hours. Pretty astounding. My guess is that the 00z Euro will begin to correct to the north. One of these models have to correct. My gut feel says that it will be the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormy said: My guess is that the 00z Euro will begin to correct to the north. One of these models have to correct. My gut feel says that it will be the Euro. Why? They could meet in the middle. then most of the CWA gets nearly zero. Maybe we have to wait for short range models tomorrow but mainly Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 29 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I like the cluster of tucked in lows.nice move but expected with the group think idea. It was, but it's nice to see the GFS / GEFS head back that way. The GEPS doesn't have as much group think, and they have a similar cluster. More tucked in than 00z. The look on the GEFS and GEPS takes some of the sting out of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Why? They could meet in the middle. then most of the CWA gets nearly zero. Maybe we have to wait for short range models tomorrow but mainly Saturday. I'm not really a fan of the meeting in the middle theory or taking a blend. Sure it could happen but probably not in this case.I know a lot of very good Mets would disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: True, but the UK has been throwing darts this season with big east coast storms. 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Dont forget the Euro has the Ukie on it's side as well. It is not out on an island right now. Seems like the EURO has been unusually late to what parties we've had this year. GFS has been more consistent but we'll see how this turns out. EURO could very well be right with this one. Who really knows? Bad patterns (La Nina") beget bad modeling, or so it seems, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, H2O said: Why are so many people back posting after they left after the euro? Don’t you people die? Walking Dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 50 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I don't ever remember there being this much disagreement between the GFS and Euro at 72 hours. Pretty astounding. Every model disagrees with the GFS at 72hrs, even the NAM. We may still get a storm, but it won't be a Miller B like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Walking DeadThis winter made many of us Walking Dead.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just gotta wait for the other models to get in line with the GFS. They will soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: True, but the UK has been throwing darts this season with big east coast storms. I'm under the impression that it has been jumpy as well. I think meteocentre has old Ukie Runs archived, so maybe I should see if I can find a home for them in the model discussion thread. 9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Seems like the EURO has been unusually late to what parties we've had this year. GFS has been more consistent but we'll see how this turns out. EURO could very well be right with this one. Who really knows? Bad patterns (La Nina") beget bad modeling, or so it seems, imo. The Euro has been the best model this year. When I put together the maps of the model runs from yesterday's event, I was surprised to see that the Euro had something similar to what actually happened from 10 days out and never really lost it. But it can make mistakes too. It really struggled with the event on January 17th, and it appears to be an outlier here. My guess is that the Euro comes back tonight with some snowfall in VA, but I think it's also a good sign that the other models are more likely to trend towards more suppressed solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 There’s probably valid reasons for both a suppression and a move north. There’s no real strong high to the north so you could argue it has more room to move north as well. On the other hand, if the northeast low is strong enough it could keep things sheared and suppressed. Could very well be that we end up somewhere in the middle with a Carolina/VA exit but enough precip to get a decent event. I would think a hecs is unlikely without a nice high to the north but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I have a feeling this is going to be one of those storms where it's 33-34 and mixed for DC while Dulles is at 32 and gets 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: It'd be nice if they said what analog that's from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Coach McGuirk said: It'd be nice if they said what analog that's from. Bottom of the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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