WxUSAF Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Look at how that major ULL/shortwave near Hudson Bay is steadily getting out of the picture early in the storms development. This is a good thing. It was helping suppress the flow. 50/50 also is east on this run relative to the last couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This thing is 72 hours out from being substantially formed and the GFS is giving us a major event and the Euro has a weak wave off Jacksonville. Drink up friends. Amen. This is nuts. And it is not like they are a little bit different. They are totally different after 48 hours. Makes no sense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Hahaha This is comical...it really is. Something told me the 18z might trend north again . Oh boy...well, whatever happens, one of the two (Euro or GFS) has seriously crapped the bed with this storm. And I suspect we're gonna find out who in the next day or two. Seems the goal posts of the GFS have been much more consistent...I guess if you're a TV forecaster, ya either don't mention the storm or just say "We'll keep watching this" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Don't see why 18z runs are always "happy hour" runs though. Maybe its because bartenders always make 18z GFS runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Nice setup if you want a Snowquester part 2. Largely cold rain or suppression for most people. It's 33-35 at the surface in the UHI region but easily supports snow in the upper levels, the BL warmth is very thin so with decent rates this would be a pasty snow storm assuming the model is right with the thermals from range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GEFS should be interesting. Not really because of how nondispersive the GEFS is. It's really lost significant value. I'm sure it will be a substantial improvement over 12z based on the Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 That look at 500 is a beaut. Hope this is a trend and not a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 96h: Ok board. You have one of two options. You lock this above map EXACTLY AS SHOWN in, or you take your chance with whatever happens. What do you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I'm seeing temp concerns posted. Surface is wack, 33+ across the board along I-95. but we've got 850s for the duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Like I told randy....back n forth. GFS will prob be south again at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Is everyone really going All In on the GFS? I dont know what the Euro is thinking but best bet is to go with a blend of GFS, ICON, NAM, and even Canadian at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Your welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Don't do it yourself man. Don't get invested again!! Trying hard not to. It’s tough to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS snows on us for 24 hours straight. Bit tricky in the cities, I-95. Western folks make out well. ive always wondered if the Icon is 2 days ahead or 2 days behind the modeling but it seems to be good at sniffing stuff out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Ok board. You have one of two options. You lock this above map EXACTLY AS SHOWN in, or you take your chance with whatever happens. What do you do? Take my chances. Snow is no use on a Monday without an OPM closure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Usually Pivotal and Wxbell's snow maps are a little different, but wow are they different this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GEFS should be interesting. Definitely. Hopefully we will see a bigger number show good snows for us -- follow the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Don't see why 18z runs are always "happy hour" runs though. Maybe its because bartenders always make 18z GFS runs? Monday morning was Happy Hour when the GFS and Euro were on the page with a pretty coastal storm. Then they all got hammered and yesterday's 18z GFS sent everyone to the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: ive always wondered if the Icon is 2 days ahead or 2 days behind the modeling but it seems to be good at sniffing stuff out It’s been amped several runs in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 So which model is embarrassingly incorrect? Euro or GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Look at how that major ULL/shortwave near Hudson Bay is steadily getting out of the picture early in the storms development. This is a good thing. It was helping suppress the flow. 50/50 also is east on this run relative to the last couple. A legit few more adjustments at 50/50 and we could see this come north another 50-100 miles. We have seen this song and dance before. Less suppression in time and things trend north. Of course, that's only helpful if our NS/SS vorts phase well to give us something significant. We're moving more in line with that now, but we need what's north of 50N to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 96h: Ok board. You have one of two options. You lock this above map EXACTLY AS SHOWN in, or you take your chance with whatever happens. What do you do? South of Lynchburg where I now live I lock it in. But if I'm in Arlington where I'm from I'll of course roll the dice for better. Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: So which model is embarrassingly incorrect? Euro or GFS? Whichever one gives us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, benjammin said: South of Lynchburg where I now live I lock it in. But if I'm in Arlington where I'm from I'll of course roll the dice for better. Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk In central MoCo I'm at about 4". I think I lock that in, it would be my biggest snowfall of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Trying hard not to. It’s tough to watch. This back and forth stuff is getting tiresome. I just want some consistency. I know that's asking a lot in this setup, but it would make the job easier. Cannot be having any of that I guess, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: This back and forth stuff is getting tiresome. I just want some consistency. I know that's asking a lot in this setup, but it would make the job easier. Cannot be having any of that I guess, Looks like a complex setup, a lot of moving parts. Factor in that it’s March, a month of typically dynamic transitions and you have a cocktail of volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Is everyone really going All In on the GFS? I dont know what the Euro is thinking but best bet is to go with a blend of GFS, ICON, NAM, and even Canadian at this point. Yeah, it's just that simple...lol I don't even know how you would even go about tallying that up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: WE ARE BACK. YES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Looks like a complex setup, a lot of moving parts. Factor in that it’s March, a month of typically dynamic transitions and you have a cocktail of volatility. Yea, but unfortunately you need almost everything to go right, especially for the low landers. Having a good chunk of this at night or early AM helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Definitely a big step forward, but we need more. 7 inches of snow in 24 hours isn't going to amount to much of anything with those temps. We need it to really thump. We basically need a HECS, or a shorter duration with a real thump, to get significant accumulation. Hopefully, this is the start of a stronger storm in a better spot and over time we trend to slightly better temps and more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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