Mordecai Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18z icon ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 ICON has a slightly deeper low in the south with higher heights in front of it than 12z, but also a stronger 50/50. The result is a heavier stripe of snow across central VA with a sharper cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Suprisingly, the ICON continues to improve for at least the southern part of our area. 18z run has a well developed coastal and just misses a high impact storm. It shows 50/50 weakening and moving out quicker which allows the coastal to turn north faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Is that some bay effect snow on the icon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Since we're all doom and gloom.. 12z NAVGEM was the closest to a hit it's been. Doesn't it have a progressive bias? ICON has been pretty consistent at the surface at least. It is in the "workable" category, and probably where we want it GEPS has been consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 "all models must come in to the left of the navgem." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: Is that some bay effect snow on the icon? We can call it that if you’d like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Comparing the 3k nam to other guidance at 60 hours I really like where it was going. Much more amplified northern stream digging in behind and a healthy stj wave. Judging how much better it looked than the "near misses" it might have been a good result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 so far i like the 18z GFS better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Comparing the 3k nam to other guidance at 60 hours I really like where it was going. Much more amplified northern stream digging in behind and a healthy stj wave. Judging how much better it looked than the "near misses" it might have been a good result. im starting to the think the euro is trash. Its such an outlier..its hard to be taken seriously...how many times have you seen the GFS just lose a huge storm in the 72 hour window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: so far i like the 18z GFS better Yes I thought that too. Will let the adults here call the play by play however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes I thought that too. Will let the adults here call the play by play however. It’s still certainly not the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 500mb looks more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Yes I thought that too. Will let the adults here call the play by play however. PNA ridge coming east slower, eventually made up for the lower heights ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 75 996mb E TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 All guidance agrees the 50/50 hurts in the build up but does relax in time to make amplification up the coast possible. The problem is gettingbthr system that ejects from the south and the one diving in from the north healthy enough that they can bully through and be in a position to take advantage when the 50/50 relaxes. The euro had a weak wave and weaker NS vort that washes out and elongates and the stj wave gets suppressed. By the time the situation improves to our northeast the incoming situation to our southwest has gone to sh!t and its unrecoverable. But the euro is alone in that. All other guidance has the wave in a spot around 60 hours that "could" work. Let's clear the first hurdle and get a decent wave into the MS valley with a NS vort digging behind it. Then from there we have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 500mb looks more amplified I am out to 66 and it looks more amplified than 12 or 6z with precip shield further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 to my amateur eyes..this is the best 500mb look we have had since 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 In the middle of transferring at 78 and 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Might be a p-type issue if this storm is allowed up the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18z GFS showing improvement at 500. Ridge out west more amplified and in the right spot. NS and SS look more amped and north, faster closing. Might be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: All guidance agrees the 50/50 hurts in the build up but does relax in time to make amplification up the coast possible. The problem is gettingbthr system that ejects from the south and the one diving in from the north healthy enough that they can bully through and be in a position to take advantage when the 50/50 relaxes. The euro had a weak wave and weaker NS vort that washes out and elongates and the stj wave gets suppressed. By the time the situation improves to our northeast the incoming situation to our southwest has gone to sh!t and its unrecoverable. But the euro is alone in that. All other guidance has the wave in a spot around 60 hours that "could" work. Let's clear the first hurdle and get a decent wave into the MS valley with a NS vort digging behind it. Then from there we have a shot. i just do not believe the GFS is going to botch a storm 72-84 hours as bad as euro shows it. I would be shocked if went from what it showed at 12z today to what euro trash has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 thanks JI for talking me down earlier and waiting for teh 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Happy hour don't do this to me again, my heart cant take the heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 84 just about done transferring near OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 haha at the wheenies this afternoon. This things still got legs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Very slight tweaks (all improvements) compared to the 12z run, looks to be a decent hit. Hopefully a trend.. Much better than it sliding in the other direction toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Lol... Happy hour GFS brings the entire thing back. Who needs alcohol when you've got this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: to my amateur eyes..this is the best 500mb look we have had since 12z yesterday It is. Best in several runs. U-S-A! U-S-A! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Looks better, but I'm still skeptical. Still nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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