Scraff Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 My first girlfriend in 7th grade was named NAM. She dumped me for some European GooFuS. I’ll never forget it. Where’s my fish and chips!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: NAM at 48 has the ULL north of ME further North...NEVER Surrender! (Probably won't matter) Yes - looks like that HP off the Carolinas is backed up a bit forcing some northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 how did the ICON go from being the worst solution to your best solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 well its slower...more time to allow phasing lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: how did the ICON go from being the worst solution to your best solution 0z last night it had no storm whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Another one bites the dust. The story of our winter. That pic someone posted the other day that had the season snowfall up until a few days ago is the most depressing thing I’ve layed my eyes at since that Keenum pass to Diggs...it’s gonna take a lot of patience to wait another 9 months before we start tracking again. I don’t know why I got my hopes up for this one. Usually when we start a thread early it means a storm will happen. Oh well... in other words, I’ll see you at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 LP holding back in Texas, a lot slower it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 what if the euro is off its rocker. It seems to be an extreme outlier......i mean the 12z GFS and the 12z Icon showed a good snowstorm. The GGEM was close. The euro isnt even in the same galaxy. I would toss it. Game back on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 LP is a little more north in LA at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Ripping snow here....good omen for this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 this is going to be a mega monster. How many 1005 lows in NW arkanas in March miss the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Desperate times call for the FV3. Top left is last night's 00z GFS, top right is the GFS-in-training. Bottom is how much more snow the next GFS gives us. There are a lot of caveats, but let's ignore those for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 If a global can do this in 3 runs than I think it's not out of the realm of possibility for the EURO to recover just fine over the next 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: this is going to be a mega monster. How many 1005 lows in NW arkanas in March miss the DC area. Not very many... but that's NE LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: this is going to be a mega monster. How many 1005 lows in NW arkanas in March miss the DC area. About 90% of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The NAM is trying to move out the 50/50 a little bit. I dont know if it's going to be enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: If a global can do this than I think it's not out of the realm of possibility for the EURO to recover just fine. either the icon is 2 days ahead or 2 days behind everything else. I mean its German engineering. Has to count for something. So far this year...the ICON/GFS duo have been deadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, peribonca said: Not very many... but that's NE LA lol...ya..oops...i failed history in high shool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Another one bites the dust. The story of our winter. That pic someone posted the other day that had the season snowfall up until a few days ago is the most depressing thing I’ve layed my eyes at since that Keenum pass to Diggs...it’s gonna take a lot of patience to wait another 9 months before we start tracking again. I don’t know why I got my hopes up for this one. Usually when we start a thread early it means a storm will happen. Oh well... in other words, I’ll see you at 18z Do you remember where that was? I'd like to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Ripping snow here....good omen for this weekend? nope. those were forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Anyone have the DEC 2009 runs of the GFS that showed an OTS storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: lol...ya..oops...i failed history in high shool You also failed at naming the correct courses in high school as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 usually a 1002 low in central SC has precip all the way up the northeast smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: lol...ya..oops...i failed history in high shool Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 wpc isn't all in on the euro... The shortwave coming through southwestern Canada shows some differences in the models early on with the 12Z NAM less amplified across the southern portion of the trough compared to the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. These differences grow downstream into the Plains with little agreement seen among the models. Most model run to run continuity is poor, with perhaps the GFS showing the most consistency over the weekend. However, the 12Z GFS appears to be a stronger outlier with its surface low as it develops and tracks across the South. At 500 mb, ensembles and the majority of deterministic guidance shows a trend toward stronger with the mid-level trough east of the Mississippi River on Sunday into Monday. The is contrary to the 12Z ECMWF which trended much weaker for Sunday across the South. While ensemble scatter low plots show a moderate to large degree of spread on Sunday, a center point of the lows, when considering trends, is nearest the position of the 12Z GFS and 12Z CMC valid 00Z/11 to 00Z/12. The 12Z ECMWF appears too weak with the system at 500 mb while being too far south at the surface, south of most of the latest ensemble low plots and appearing worse than the 00Z ECMWF. The 12Z NAM is significant faster at the surface while the 12Z UKMET also appears too far to the south like the ECMWF, appearing worse-off than its 00Z cycle. No single model or two-way blend is preferred here given the large differences and poor run to run consistency. Therefore, a multi-model blend of the 12Z GFS/12Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF/12Z CMC is preferred with hopefully the strengths of each model being maximized while minimizing apparent weaknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: nope. those were forecast. By the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: usually a 1002 low in central SC has precip all the way up the northeast smh its because the model is out to get you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Close but no cigar for the NAM. I dont know how you can have a wound up storm on the coast with the NAM and NOTHING with Euro. I mean we are only talking about a 3 day lead here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: By the ICON? no idea. but maybe the CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: Close but no cigar for the NAM. I dont know how you can have a wound up storm on the coast with the NAM and NOTHING with Euro. I mean we are only talking about a 3 day lead here? gets precip up to EZF or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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