WVclimo Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I live NW of Winchester. But I could be confusing it with another storm. They all seem to blend together the older I get I show 3” from that storm (on 0.14” of liquid) so I would think being south of me you should have done at least that well. I get the ‘older’ part though, believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 96 hours out and there's basically no support for this storm past north of DC. not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: I show 3” from that storm (on 0.14” of liquid) so I would think being south of me you should have done at least that well. I get the ‘older’ part though, believe me. Yeah. I was wrong. Just looked at my records and I have 3.5.....So yeah lets go with Ian's call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ugh the gefs individual members are worse then the mean. Things are skewed by a few north outliers. But the consensus is southern VA hit. About half the members don't even get Richmond into the best precip. And a good cluster get nothing north of NC. Whens the next fail In 24 hours we went from this to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ian said: the point of an analog is more to match the pattern than the results per se. I thought it didn't need to be said that our results were better in Jan with temps in the teens than they will be in mid-march. this is more the idea that maybe it will still come back. I think that one also disappeared a bit in a similar range before then trending north every run for the last two days or so. Here's the analysis of the storm in the 5 year anniversary recap you posted on CWG 3 years ago Five days before Jan. 30, weather models forecast a significant winter storm for the Washington area. The Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model showed a classic setup. High pressure was parked to the north feeding cold air into the region, while a coastal low pressure system already infused with El Nino moisture also began pulling in moisture from the Atlantic. A day later, however, the weather models suddenly changed, taking the storm track well south of Washington. It appeared that Washington would be on the northern fringe of the storm, receiving light accumulations of snow, at best. (note: computer weather models often do not lock onto a storm track until two or three days before the event, sometimes even fewer.) The storm was still four days away and the forecast track was changing with each model run. Over the next couple of days, the weather models shifted the storm track back north, giving the area an increasing chance of significant snow as we closed. In many ways it was the best kind of snow for a D.C. area snow-lover. After feeling like we had lost the battle of January, the snow returned. Even into game time the forecast numbers were still going up. It was cold. Ski resort champagne powder. And during the day on a weekend. On rare occasions, the entire Washington area will have temperatures in the teens and a winter storm will produce only powdery snow, without any mixed precipitation or rain. The snowstorm of Jan. 30, 2010 was such a storm. The precipitation was forecast to be all-snow across the entire Washington area, the only question was how much accumulation would be measured across the city and surrounding suburbs. Two days before the snowstorm, the forecast was for 1 to 2 inches of snow. One day before the storm, the forecast was increased to 1 to 4 inches of snow. On the day of the storm, the forecast was increased to 3 to 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Where are you getting the extended RGEM from? I dont have that link for some reason? Or I just cant find it in the hundred of other weather bookmarks I have Edit: NVM it is on the map Oh man. That site is in French. I shouldnt have taken 4 years of German in high school. It does nothing to help with my weather obsession You can get an English version of the site. Just click on "En" in the top right corner, or use this link. http://meteocentre.com/?lang=en They have a lot of stuff that can't be found on other sites, but their graphics aren't great. Getting the extended RGEM from them is a little tricky. The best way is to view the image for the 48-hour RGEM forecast in its own browser window, then change the "048" in the URL to "060", "072", or "084". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: 96 hours out and there's basically no support for this storm past north of DC. not good. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50511-the-panic-room-winter-2017-2018/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Here's the analysis of the storm in the 5 year anniversary recap you posted on CWG 3 years ago That's why I type a lot and love spreadsheets.. my actual snow memory kinda sucks. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I was wrong. Just looked at my records and I have 3.5.....So yeah lets go with Ian's call analogs are a good guide for benchmarks and bounds and such. other than that you're probably better off going with the models + whatever you think the models are doing wrong/right. no two storms are the exact same.. one concern with this one has always been the lack of a good cold high despite a decent air mass... clearly a difference between it and 2010. plus I don't think 2010 had that wave near the lakes moving in such a fashion (as discussed last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12z Euro looks to be the worst run yet through 72 hours. Western ridge is further east, trough looks sheared, positive tilt and south. 50/50 holding in strong. Suppressed and Weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Euro aint lookin too good. Weaker shortwave and less space between it and the departing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Euro aint lookin too good. Weaker shortwave and less space between it and the departing low. Only happens to us....everyone else gets theres Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 wow terrible lol.. gotta love our area.. 3 storm ops in a good/great pattern = 3 different total fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 A crossroad moment where we need a step forward but we get 3 steps back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: A crossroad moment where we need a step forward but we get 3 steps back one of the worst euro runs i remember in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ian said: wow terrible lol.. gotta love our area.. 3 storm ops in a good/great pattern = 3 different total fails 3 ways to fail. The horrible truth is we are being pushed out of the sweet zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro aint lookin too good. Weaker shortwave and less space between it and the departing low. Only happens to us....everyone else gets theres This winter had an uncanny ability of keeping us interested start to finish with basically nothing to show for it. I'd prefer +10 and a shutout over this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 So, game over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: So, game over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Well, this was fun folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 So, can i delete this thread now? and then ban randy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, NovaTarHeel said: So, game over? Close I assume. Not even thinking I will see snow tv now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The American modelling should be shutdown and restart from scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Man, i truly feel for you guys. I dont EVER remember a winter where there were so many chances and so many epic looking patterns for a single region only to have the rug pulled out over and over and over and over. I wouldnt stick a fork in it yet but sheesh, whatever could go wrong this winter truly has. I empathize with every single one of you :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: So, can i delete this thread now? and then ban randy? yes. and yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This winter had an uncanny ability of keeping us interested start to finish with basically nothing to show for it. I'd prefer +10 and a shutout over this nonsense. Agreed...I'd rather have what we had last year than what we had this year...just awful. This is looking to be one of the worst (except somehow BWI has recorded a little over 10 inches, so numerically it's in the middle). We can only go upward from here, lol But the teasers have been just incredible, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Wasn't boxing day dead in water like this 96 hours out and made a miraculous come back for the northeast? See you at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Well looks like my zombie photo will have to remain for one more year. We just can't seem to break out of the prolonged snow funk in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Wasn't boxing day dead in water like this 96 hours out and made a miraculous come back for the northeast? See you at 18z forever the best, you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 We need Wow to make the board software prevent anyone from starting a thread for a storm 48 hours prior to it happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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