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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I live NW of Winchester. But I could be confusing it with another storm. They all seem to blend together the older I get :)

I show 3” from that storm (on 0.14” of liquid) so I would think being south of me you should have done at least that well.

I get the ‘older’ part though, believe me. :oldman:

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Ugh the gefs individual members are worse then the mean. Things are skewed by a few north outliers. But the consensus is southern VA hit. About half the members don't even get Richmond into the best precip. And a good cluster get nothing north of NC. 

Whens the next fail

In 24 hours we went from this

IMG_4546.thumb.PNG.baf1d79f443f700dff06ea11f8493bc3.PNG

to this 

IMG_4547.thumb.PNG.537a763a097207d6762ff10dff357dd7.PNG

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5 minutes ago, Ian said:

the point of an analog is more to match the pattern than the results per se. I thought it didn't need to be said that our results were better in Jan with temps in the teens than they will be in mid-march. this is more the idea that maybe it will still come back. I think that one also disappeared a bit in a similar range before then trending north every run for the last two days or so. 

Here's the analysis of the storm in the 5 year anniversary recap you posted on CWG 3 years ago

Five days before Jan. 30, weather models forecast a significant winter storm for the Washington area. The Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model showed a classic setup. High pressure was parked to the north feeding cold air into the region, while a coastal low pressure system already infused with El Nino moisture also began pulling in moisture from the Atlantic.

A day later, however, the weather models suddenly changed, taking the storm track well south of Washington. It appeared that Washington would be on the northern fringe of the storm, receiving light accumulations of snow, at best. (note: computer weather models often do not lock onto a storm track until two or three days before the event, sometimes even fewer.) The storm was still four days away and the forecast track was changing with each model run.

Over the next couple of days, the weather models shifted the storm track back north, giving the area an increasing chance of significant snow as we closed.

In many ways it was the best kind of snow for a D.C. area snow-lover. After feeling like we had lost the battle of January, the snow returned. Even into game time the forecast numbers were still going up. It was cold. Ski resort champagne powder. And during the day on a weekend.

On rare occasions, the entire Washington area will have temperatures in the teens and a winter storm will produce only powdery snow, without any mixed precipitation or rain. The snowstorm of Jan. 30, 2010 was such a storm.

The precipitation was forecast to be all-snow across the entire Washington area, the only question was how much accumulation would be measured across the city and surrounding suburbs.

Two days before the snowstorm, the forecast was for 1 to 2 inches of snow. One day before the storm, the forecast was increased to 1 to 4 inches of snow. On the day of the storm, the forecast was increased to 3 to 6 inches of snow.

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3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Where are you getting the extended RGEM from? I dont have that link for some reason? Or I just cant find it in the hundred of other weather bookmarks I have :)

Edit: NVM it is on the map :) Oh man. That site is in French. I shouldnt have taken 4 years of German in high school. It does nothing to help with my weather obsession :)

You can get an English version of the site.  Just click on "En" in the top right corner, or use this link.

http://meteocentre.com/?lang=en

They have a lot of stuff that can't be found on other sites, but their graphics aren't great.  Getting the extended RGEM from them is a little tricky.  The best way is to view the image for the 48-hour RGEM forecast in its own browser window, then change the "048" in the URL to "060", "072", or "084".

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6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Here's the analysis of the storm in the 5 year anniversary recap you posted on CWG 3 years ago

 

That's why I type a lot and love spreadsheets.. my actual snow memory kinda sucks.  ;p

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I was wrong. Just looked at my records and I have 3.5.....So yeah lets go with Ian's call :)

analogs are a good guide for benchmarks and bounds and such. other than that you're probably better off going with the models + whatever you think the models are doing wrong/right. no two storms are the exact same.. one concern with this one has always been the lack of a good cold high despite a decent air mass... clearly a difference between it and 2010. plus I don't think 2010 had that wave near the lakes moving in such a fashion (as discussed last night). 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Euro aint lookin too good. Weaker shortwave and less space between it and the departing low. 

Only happens to us....everyone else gets theres

This winter had an uncanny ability of keeping us interested start to finish with basically nothing to show for it. I'd prefer +10 and a shutout over this nonsense. 

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Man, i truly feel for you guys. I dont EVER remember a winter where there were so many chances and so many epic looking patterns for a single region only to have the rug pulled out over and over and over and over. I wouldnt stick a fork in it yet but sheesh, whatever could go wrong this winter truly has. I empathize with every single one of you :-(

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This winter had an uncanny ability of keeping us interested start to finish with basically nothing to show for it. I'd prefer +10 and a shutout over this nonsense. 

Agreed...I'd rather have what we had last year than what we had this year...just awful. This is looking to be one of the worst (except somehow BWI has recorded a little over 10 inches, so numerically it's in the middle). We can only go upward from here, lol But the teasers have been just incredible, smh

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Just now, Ji said:

Wasn't boxing day dead in water like this 96 hours out and made a miraculous come back for the northeast? See you at 18z

forever the best, you are

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