psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Everything since the U.K. Yesterday has been a let down. I was really waiting for things to jump on board. And yesterday when the gfs came in big then the ggem improved a lot and the U.K. said hell yes I really thought that was it. But then the euro was a let down. The EPS another move the wrong way. Gfs has degraded some. We lost the U.K. And now we have ons model that is close...and everything else has a squashed not gonna happen look. Am I missing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Everything since the U.K. Yesterday has been a let down. I was really waiting for things to jump on board. And yesterday when the gfs came in big then the ggem improved a lot and the U.K. said hell yes I really thought that was it. But then the euro was a let down. The EPS another move the wrong way. Gfs has degraded some. We lost the U.K. And now we have ons model that is close...and everything else has a squashed not gonna happen look. Am I missing anything? Yes.. this is what I see and what I was alluding too as well. There are way too many "We need this and that and the other" to make this work. You get more than one variable to move at this range and I lose hope! I mean, the variables get removed and I am in. Would be funny to see the EURO swing our way, but no one would trust it! You are right on! I was sold yesterday about this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Everything since the U.K. Yesterday has been a let down. I was really waiting for things to jump on board. And yesterday when the gfs came in big then the ggem improved a lot and the U.K. said hell yes I really thought that was it. But then the euro was a let down. The EPS another move the wrong way. Gfs has degraded some. We lost the U.K. And now we have ons model that is close...and everything else has a squashed not gonna happen look. Am I missing anything? noon was amazing yesterday. The GFS had a near HECS..UKMEt came in with a HECS...GGem got close.....we all thought the euro was going to shift but Dr no came back stronger than ever and won again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Jan 30 2010 is our only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: Jan 30 2010 is our only hope. That storm missed me up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ian said: Jan 30 2010 is our only hope. i am guessin Feb 5-6 isnt #1 analog anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ian said: Jan 30 2010 is our only hope. Also the 4-8" the D.C. Area got was aided by high ratios. That same event would be 1-3" now imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 the GFS is slowly killing is 12z yesterdaty--amazing 18z--south--red flag 00z yesterday--great run but not as good as 12z 6z disaster 12z good run but not as good as 00z even our recoveries are going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That storm missed me up here yeah, i was searching for a snow map to see what it did up in our area. not well i take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Ugh the gefs individual members are worse then the mean. Things are skewed by a few north outliers. But the consensus is southern VA hit. About half the members don't even get Richmond into the best precip. And a good cluster get nothing north of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, mappy said: yeah, i was searching for a snow map to see what it did up in our area. not well i take it? The cutoff was sharp. Westminster south was good. 5" plus. But I think where I am was only 2" from like .08 qpf. That's not gonna cut it. Even the totals south were aided by high ratios. It was a powder storm. The real dynamic precip was towards richmond. I don't think a repeat would end well for anyone really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: i am guessin Feb 5-6 isnt #1 analog anymore? analogs are great because there's always something to cherry pick 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Also the 4-8" the D.C. Area got was aided by high ratios. That same event would be 1-3" now imo. blerg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GEFS. I'm taking a break from this for the rest of the day, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That storm missed me up here One of the most painful fringe jobs in history. 4 inches 4 miles from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, mappy said: yeah, i was searching for a snow map to see what it did up in our area. not well i take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This winter has seen so many shifts in the models even this far out, it doesn't seem worth it to get disappointed with this run as it was to get excited about yesterday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ian said: oh thats not nearly as bad as i was expecting. i've been fringed worse since i've moved north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 also, hi friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Ugh the gefs individual members are worse then the mean. Things are skewed by a few north outliers. But the consensus is southern VA hit. About half the members don't even get Richmond into the best precip. And a good cluster get nothing north of NC. Whens the next fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I remember driving from my house (Seven Valleys area) in York County to East Baltimore and the differences were shocking. I couldn't believe the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: oh thats not nearly as bad as i was expecting. i've been fringed worse since i've moved north. That map isnt right. I got 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That map isnt right. I got 0.0 move east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Good news. It can't get much worse than that GEFS run. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That map isnt right. I got 0.0 The satellite picture you posted shows snow in an E-W orientation with Winchester in the midst of the snow. Are you sure you're thinking of the right storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, gymengineer said: The satellite picture you posted shows snow in an E-W orientation with Winchester in the midst of the snow. Are you sure you're thinking of the right storm? yeah was about to ask if he lived somewhere else at the time. of course the lwx page seems to be lost with the site update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, gymengineer said: The satellite picture you posted shows snow in an E-W orientation with Winchester in the midst of the snow. Are you sure you're thinking of the right storm? I live NW of Winchester. But I could be confusing it with another storm. They all seem to blend together the older I get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Yeah, it was cold as balls for that 30 JAN storm and also, well, January. Every flake stuck instantly on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS is slowly killing is 12z yesterdaty--amazing 18z--south--red flag 00z yesterday--great run but not as good as 12z 6z disaster 12z good run but not as good as 00z even our recoveries are going south I am dead inside from the roller coaster. Gotta play more HiM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GEPS mostly moved sideways, but probably a little better overall. Still as many members get me at least 1" as 00z (about 60%) and the snow mean went up again. Some big hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yeah, it was cold as balls for that 30 JAN storm and also, well, January. Every flake stuck instantly on that one. the point of an analog is more to match the pattern than the results per se. I thought it didn't need to be said that our results were better in Jan with temps in the teens than they will be in mid-march. this is more the idea that maybe it will still come back. I think that one also disappeared a bit in a similar range before then trending north every run for the last two days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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