ryanconway63 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 can someone post the snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 CMC hangs on to the 50/50 similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Im sure most of you realize we are painstakingly close now to a SECS+ system turning the corner and impacting a widespread area. Whether we get there or not who knows but there is a TON of time left.....over 3 days even 4 on some guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I can't say I'm thrilled. But I'm not bummed either. I think 12z tomorrow is the real deal. We still got time troops. Need more time than 12Z tomorrow to resolve this. GFS has gone back n forth the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: So if my understanding is correct, the 50/50 low screwed this run? There were a couple things that were just a bit off to make it not work. 1. The confluence held on a little bit too long to our north which suppressed the flow which directly impacts (2) 2. The SS ran out ahead of the NS SW delaying a phase and creating a broad neutral/pos tilt trough in a location where we need it to start going negative in order to bring the low up the coast. We need higher heights out front which would come from the 50/50 lifting out in time to help slow down the SS to allow for the phase earlier. 3. There is a pesky SW up in the lakes that seems to contribute to lowering heights a bit. This seems like a lot of things that aren't in our favor but the adjustments to improve these factors are relatively minor at this lead time. Sometimes strong convection from these storms as they tap into the gulf cause a lot of latent heat release and pump up a ridge out in front that can help bring on a north trend as we get closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's too close (and too far a lead) to give up now. we dont actually need a "NORTH" trend...it gets far enough north this run, but it transfers (jumps) too far east off the SC coast then comes north at a longitude that is bad for us. But were talking a MINOR itsy bitsy adjustment to this run and were getting bombed. Get that low to come NNE just INSIDE Hatteras instead of just outside...with that same exact trajectory and tuck/capture at the end...basically get it tucked in against the delmarva instead of 50 miles off the coast and...boom. I also still think the models are too suppressive with the qpf so that will help come gametime. I am ok with this run. The issues with the 50/50 and suppression are real but were so close with only minor adjustments needed. I am sticking with what I said...keep this close today. Keep it just under us but where we can smell it...and I think were ok. This run was a positive IMO. But I want to see other guidance support. Icon was a win too I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: So we finally get the stronger, more amped SLP and we can’t get that to cooperate. Sigh. This isnt over yet man. Just one run, and IMO, with the exception of the NS LP hangin tight, this was NOT a bad run for this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I can't say I'm thrilled. But I'm not bummed either. I think 12z tomorrow is the real deal. We still got time troops. What about tonight at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowfan said: Need more time than 12Z tomorrow to resolve this. GFS has gone back n forth the past few days. Eh, maybe...but data onshore, all that stuff. Weenie handbook....if there are going to be big changes, that would be when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 the storm looks better on paper but the back yard results is a disaster. a 6 hour period of light snow isng going to do it. the 12z ICOn was way better. GFS precip is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 It is painful. If we were really trending better I would be all like "It will turn north" and excited. But we are seeing multiple variables starting to go against us. That seems to be the trend here.. just because we had one better run on strength and thus a bit of a pull, in general, I am not seeing variables lining up to save this thing! If anything it seems less impressive over a large area and not going the right way! Maybe it trends better, but too many hopes on too many items usually ends in heartbreak. We know luck is always needed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: we dont actually need a "NORTH" trend...it gets far enough north this run, but it transfers (jumps) too far east off the SC coast then comes north at a longitude that is bad for us. But were talking a MINOR itsy bitsy adjustment to this run and were getting bombed. Get that low to come NNE just INSIDE Hatteras instead of just outside...with that same exact trajectory and tuck/capture at the end...basically get it tucked in against the delmarva instead of 50 miles off the coast and...boom. I also still think the models are too suppressive with the qpf so that will help come gametime. I am ok with this run. The issues with the 50/50 and suppression are real but were so close with only minor adjustments needed. I am sticking with what I said...keep this close today. Keep it just under us but where we can smell it...and I think were ok. This run was a positive IMO. But I want to see other guidance support. Icon was a win too I guess. So it's just like Jan 4th, where the low was at a good spot for snow, but the trajectory of the low screws our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 icon 30 hours of snow...Gfs 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: What about tonight at 0z? If it comes in suppressed, it'll be a morale killer for sure, but honestly..I'd wait before feeling totally pessimistic. Notice I didn't say "before we give up"...because we're all snow weenies..nobody is going to ever truly give up until the time it starts snowing to our south and the radar shows it moving due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: we dont actually need a "NORTH" trend...it gets far enough north this run, but it transfers (jumps) too far east off the SC coast then comes north at a longitude that is bad for us. But were talking a MINOR itsy bitsy adjustment to this run and were getting bombed. Get that low to come NNE just INSIDE Hatteras instead of just outside...with that same exact trajectory and tuck/capture at the end...basically get it tucked in against the delmarva instead of 50 miles off the coast and...boom. I also still think the models are too suppressive with the qpf so that will help come gametime. I am ok with this run. The issues with the 50/50 and suppression are real but were so close with only minor adjustments needed. I am sticking with what I said...keep this close today. Keep it just under us but where we can smell it...and I think were ok. This run was a positive IMO. But I want to see other guidance support. Icon was a win too I guess. we just need the low over the upper low not to stall and actually shift a couple of degrees latitude closer to Nova Scotia. It's the reason why out storm moves east too much before turning. As you say, we don't need a huge change but we do need that feature to get a little out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GFS has a closed 500mb low passage right through central/southern VA. That’s classic for DC-Baltimore snow events. I’ll take my chances with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Eh, maybe...but data onshore, all that stuff. Weenie handbook....if there are going to be big changes, that would be when. But we don't need big changes. The models are keying in on all the players that will be on the field. Minor adjustments are likely. The question is whether they are in our favor or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This has become more of a “thread the needle” storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Def a shift north on the 12Z GFS so that's encouraging. We're not out of the woods yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, usedtobe said: we just need the low over the upper low not to stall and actually shift a couple of degrees latitude closer to Nova Scotia. It's the reason why out storm moves east too much before turning. As you say, we don't need a huge change but we do need that feature to get a little out of the way. thanks Wes. Thats what I was trying to say earlier. No matter how well the storm matures, if it cant gain latitude, the other stuff matters little. I dont think thats impossible at this lead time. Thats why I'm feeling ok w/ this run. Hope we hear more from you on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: This has become more of a “thread the needle” storm. . 99.9% of the time we are threading the needle around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: But we don't need big changes. The models are keying in on all the players that will be on the field. Minor adjustments are likely. The question is whether they are in our favor or not. Ok, rephrase....big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I know everyone is saying we don’t need a lot for a little shift north but I’m not loving that pretty much all the OPs show the same southern look...you would think you could find something that hits us decently flush. Seems like a big signal to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ji said: icon 30 hours of snow...Gfs 6 I am not trying to put all of my hope in the ICON. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I know everyone is saying we don’t need a lot for a little shift north but I’m not loving that pretty much all the OPs show the same southern look...you would think you could find something that hits us decently flush. Seems like a big signal to me Yeah I do find it concerning that the models seem to be coming to more of a consensus. The GFS is coming more in line with the other models. Now, they could also certainly shift north over the next few days but I'd like to see a bullseye a little farther north than we are seeing right now. Even the GFS has the bullseye in southwest Virginia. I want it farther north than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Hopefully the UKIE will print out a big solution like it did yesterday at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: This has become more of a “thread the needle” storm. . Our big storms always are. I remember that term specifically before February 6, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The lagging 50/50 at 500 mb aside I thought we saw some improvements on the overall run compared to the 06z gfs. If this was just 3-4 years ago and I saw this general setup on the GFS I would be pulling my snow gear out for some serious shoveling even up here just a touch above the MD/PA line. But since the upgrade 2 years ago there haven't been too many opportunities to see if the GFS bias of being progressive and/or suppressive with these type systems is still in play. I have seen it come into play occasionally but that could have been more happenstance then a true bias. Here's hoping that this bias still exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS has a closed 500mb low passage right through central/southern VA. That’s classic for DC-Baltimore snow events. I’ll take my chances with it. On the same hill as the Euro outcome for yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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