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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Wait...are you saying you're not focusing on what is arguably the most important level for tracking these things (500mb)?

Honestly no. I don't have the expertise to reliably comment on those things. I just know that in the past, amped and north means the run has been good. Looks like that may no longer be the case.

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looks like it may still be south...for now...but maybe this can take a last minute jog north like jan 2010 did if the northeast low relaxes a bit.  might need a slower system for this to work out.
Last minute jog? 18hr lead time yesterday storm....models widespread 12-18" snows for SE PA became isolated 12-18" totals with massive shift to NYC. Volatility in the pattern will yield huge last minute shift and we are nowhere near "last minute" with this threat yet. Just my $.02 based on recent experience.
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1 minute ago, Ji said:

more amped--slower moving....slower moving---more time for the 50/50 to move out

This was originally a Tuesday/Wednesday storm when it first popped up - then move forward to Sunday into Monday. The earlier time for it isn't helping with respect to getting the storm we just missed to a better blocking location.

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There are always ways we fail.  But that GFS run tells me we have a long way to go before we throw in the towel.  Heck we are talking the slightest of adjustments and this could be a MECS.  And the ways we fail have been well detailed by the big guns on the forum.

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

There are always ways we fail.  But that GFS run tells me we have a long way to go before we throw in the towel.  Heck we are talking the slightest of adjustments and this could be a MECS.  And the ways we fail have been well detailed by the big guns on the forum.

thats a very fair statement.

keep clubs in closet for a couple weeks bro :)

 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I can't say I'm thrilled.  But I'm not bummed either.  I think 12z tomorrow is the real deal.  We still got time troops. 

agreed.  couple subtle shifts in either direction yield a large difference in IMBY snow totals for many.

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