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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah the 50/50 pushing down more is not going to help. 

looks like it may still be south...for now...but maybe this can take a last minute jog north like jan 2010 did if the northeast low relaxes a bit.  might need a slower system for this to work out.

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14 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

I worry that the vortex now over the northeast may be just a little too far west to allow our shortwave room to come north and its proximity is what ends up shearing our trough a little too much to get the bext precip to us. 

 

just said that in my other subforum.  its hanging around too long that no matter how the NS vort pops in, it may all be for naught, as that LP is going to push this thing due east off the MA coast.  I sure hope it scoots but this has to be considered.

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

looks like it may still be south...for now...but maybe this can take a last minute jog north like jan 2010 did if the northeast low relaxes a bit.  might need a slower system for this to work out.

which is easier---to get the 50/50 low to move out...or to get the phasing/ss action that we are seeing now on GFS lol

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

More north, more amped, more west.

 

I'm not focusing too much on the upper dynamics, these three things have in the past signaled good runs.

Wait...are you saying you're not focusing on what is arguably the most important level for tracking these things (500mb)?

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