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March 11-12 Potential Storm


stormtracker

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Central VA is the mean qpf jack but yea, around .4-.5 through most of our region. It's nice to see the largest cluster (not majority) showing a classic MA stripe. Similar to the GFS. There are some west tracks mixed in, misses to the south, and no storms at all in the mix but the biggest group that looks similar is right over our yards. 

do you mean west tracks like riding up the apps ha? I cant imagine any scenario like that. How many no storms?

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1 minute ago, Ian said:

Should learn to wait for hi rez but who can wait. I think any real trend here is more apparent earlier in the track. By the time it gets off the Carolina coast it's pretty similar. Still it's a good move.

The nice thing is the EPS supports a GFS solution more than the euro op solution. Being 96 hours out keeps the spread large enough to not jump on any one solution. However, using odds it seems that a storm of some consequence is certainly favored over nothing at all. I thought the EPS was a good run. Better than 0z and better than the op. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The nice thing is the EPS supports a GFS solution more than the euro op solution. Being 96 hours out keeps the spread large enough to not jump on any one solution. However, using odds it seems that a storm of some consequence is certainly favored over nothing at all. I thought the EPS was a good run. Better than 0z and better than the op. 

Yes to all. I have mostly hugged the ensembles thus far and they've been better looking than the ops. This has been a rough winter for the ops and even with blocking they are still not as ideal as you'd hope in this range.. take a Snowzilla that was locking in already etc etc. But like most big ones the signal has been very strong for a while. I like where we sit.. mostly worried about the date esp if there isn't much of a cold high.

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Just now, NattyBo said:

Forgive the dumb question, but what is the general onset/end timeframe here?  I have a very important meeting on Monday at work, wondering what the odds are that work will even happen...

Load for bear.  If squirrel comes you will blow it away.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

do you mean west tracks like riding up the apps ha? I cant imagine any scenario like that. How many no storms?

 I should have said too far west so rain. I'll wait for the meteos to come out before figuring out how many total whiffs. 

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1 minute ago, WeathermanB said:

Is there a possibility that the 50/50 low out east will prevent this next low from moving north? If so, the GFS is screwing up the 500 mb.

Also can't wait for happy hour GFS

My thoughts exactly.  I think the GFS Op solution of a tucked in Low against the coast is unlikely and that this Low doesnt ride all the way up to Boston.  My guess is the low slides through the Carolinas, off the North Carolina then pushes Northeast.... perhaps a blend of the GFS and Euro at this time

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS has plenty of spread but a fairly sizeable cluster that would make most if not all of us pretty happy. The MSLP plots and low location plots shifted NW but still a bit on the progressive side. 

I really like where you all stand right now... a little nervous up here.  I would like to see more "north misses" to balance out the south ones... way too many that nail DC but have a right northern gradient that hurts northern MD.  And it can happen...there have been southern sliders where northern VA and DC get a foot of snow and little or nothing falls up here.  

There I worried about getting "fringed" so this thread is officially christened.  

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2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

My thoughts exactly.  I think the GFS Op solution of a tucked in Low against the coast is unlikely and that this Low doesnt ride all the way up to Boston.  My guess is the low slides through the Carolinas, off the North Carolina then pushes Northeast.... perhaps a blend of the GFS and Euro at this time

So you believe the 12z UKIE SLP depiction is wrong as well?

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7 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Is there a possibility that the 50/50 low out east will prevent this next low from moving north? If so, the GFS is screwing up the 500 mb.

Also can't wait for happy hour GFS

Once you realize how desperately DT will work to justify why the Euro is always right and the GFS always wrong, you'll be less worried about his logic in cases like this.

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