Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: What is the timing? Last I heard there was talk if it moving on Sunday afternoon. Can't imagine exact timing can be nailed down at the moment...we just gotta work out the other details of the storm first! But generally 11th-12th is the time timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Mean snowfall is between 3-4" pretty much through the whole region except for SE. Around 2" for SoMD. Not bad at all for March, but the mean at day 4 "means" nothing! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Man, here is how you can tell the EPS is largely boom/bust 1" at DCA: 47% 3" at DCA: 34% 6" at DCA: 20% 12" at DCA: 11% Large group of big winners, but on the other hand the mean must be skewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Central VA is the mean qpf jack but yea, around .4-.5 through most of our region. It's nice to see the largest cluster (not majority) showing a classic MA stripe. Similar to the GFS. There are some west tracks mixed in, misses to the south, and no storms at all in the mix but the biggest group that looks similar is right over our yards. do you mean west tracks like riding up the apps ha? I cant imagine any scenario like that. How many no storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: Should learn to wait for hi rez but who can wait. I think any real trend here is more apparent earlier in the track. By the time it gets off the Carolina coast it's pretty similar. Still it's a good move. The nice thing is the EPS supports a GFS solution more than the euro op solution. Being 96 hours out keeps the spread large enough to not jump on any one solution. However, using odds it seems that a storm of some consequence is certainly favored over nothing at all. I thought the EPS was a good run. Better than 0z and better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 can anybody post the EPS Low cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I feel like this is going to work out well region wide. But I also feel like its too soon too have a bulls eye over our heads. This progression feels right and proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Forgive the dumb question, but what is the general onset/end timeframe here? I have a very important meeting on Monday at work, wondering what the odds are that work will even happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The nice thing is the EPS supports a GFS solution more than the euro op solution. Being 96 hours out keeps the spread large enough to not jump on any one solution. However, using odds it seems that a storm of some consequence is certainly favored over nothing at all. I thought the EPS was a good run. Better than 0z and better than the op. Yes to all. I have mostly hugged the ensembles thus far and they've been better looking than the ops. This has been a rough winter for the ops and even with blocking they are still not as ideal as you'd hope in this range.. take a Snowzilla that was locking in already etc etc. But like most big ones the signal has been very strong for a while. I like where we sit.. mostly worried about the date esp if there isn't much of a cold high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, NattyBo said: Forgive the dumb question, but what is the general onset/end timeframe here? I have a very important meeting on Monday at work, wondering what the odds are that work will even happen... Load for bear. If squirrel comes you will blow it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: A thread already??? Feels too soon Lol, yes..a thread 4 days before potential is too soon. Given the history of this board, this thread is LATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12z EPS Low locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: do you mean west tracks like riding up the apps ha? I cant imagine any scenario like that. How many no storms? I should have said too far west so rain. I'll wait for the meteos to come out before figuring out how many total whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: do we get to ban @stormtracker if this fails now? I will self ban Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z EPS Low locations. Two clusters there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I will self ban Im holding you to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Is there a possibility that the 50/50 low out east will prevent this next low from moving north? If so, the GFS is screwing up the 500 mb. Also can't wait for happy hour GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12 UT EPS gives most of the forum one chance in 10 of >12", one chance in 5 of > 6", one chance in 3 of > 3", and one chance in 2 of > 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, MJB said: As 25 years is Silver let the Silver Storm be christened. Dude you read my mind...I was just thinking "Silver Anniversary Silver Storm?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: Is there a possibility that the 50/50 low out east will prevent this next low from moving north? If so, the GFS is screwing up the 500 mb. Also can't wait for happy hour GFS My thoughts exactly. I think the GFS Op solution of a tucked in Low against the coast is unlikely and that this Low doesnt ride all the way up to Boston. My guess is the low slides through the Carolinas, off the North Carolina then pushes Northeast.... perhaps a blend of the GFS and Euro at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Two clusters thereYep....a good clustee and a bad cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The two clusters could represent two camps in terms of timing rather than track. This looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 102-108 hrs away now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS has plenty of spread but a fairly sizeable cluster that would make most if not all of us pretty happy. The MSLP plots and low location plots shifted NW but still a bit on the progressive side. I really like where you all stand right now... a little nervous up here. I would like to see more "north misses" to balance out the south ones... way too many that nail DC but have a right northern gradient that hurts northern MD. And it can happen...there have been southern sliders where northern VA and DC get a foot of snow and little or nothing falls up here. There I worried about getting "fringed" so this thread is officially christened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 whatever euro is showing now...that's still a helluva jump from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: My thoughts exactly. I think the GFS Op solution of a tucked in Low against the coast is unlikely and that this Low doesnt ride all the way up to Boston. My guess is the low slides through the Carolinas, off the North Carolina then pushes Northeast.... perhaps a blend of the GFS and Euro at this time So you believe the 12z UKIE SLP depiction is wrong as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 seeing this sidewinder right now, i wouldn't take a coastal hugger off the table either...march can be fun... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Is there a possibility that the 50/50 low out east will prevent this next low from moving north? If so, the GFS is screwing up the 500 mb. Also can't wait for happy hour GFS Once you realize how desperately DT will work to justify why the Euro is always right and the GFS always wrong, you'll be less worried about his logic in cases like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 New article up from CWG ---> There is potential for a significant Mid-Atlantic storm Sunday and Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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