stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 Yup, skunked and it slides right under us. Good snows in central/s VA. That's a painful, agonizing map as is. But it wouldn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Nam bullseye's central/eastern virginia with snow at 84hrs in the middle of march. If it's me I'm tossing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Yup, skunked and it slides right under us. Good snows in central/s VA. That's a painful, agonizing map as is. But it wouldn't take much. the northern stream ull closed off and slowed down...had that been as fast as 6z...would of nailed us. With that being said..the precip field is pathetic for such a strong low. Ive seen lows in Alabama give moisture to NE Pennsylvania lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Though the surface low placement looks better I think that is more a function of the NAM's habit to have the 500's and the surface be out of sync with each other at longer ranges. Thought the 500's actually took a step backwards. General overall look is still progressive. But it's hard to get overly worked up over the NAM at range and if anybody does we need to send PSU with his stupid stick to straighten them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I'm OK with the Central VA bullseye at this range. Models do that a lot. It'll slide north at least a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GFS better start the north trend shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 just catching up on the 6z gfs. it's pretty close and one thing the gfs and nam both do is have some precip forming around ky out ahead of the storm. not sure what that's about, but it could be a clue as to how far north the system can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 the storm $hitttt the bed as soon as Randy started the thread. that rhymes btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: the storm $hitttt the bed as soon as Randy started the thread. that rhymes btw Don't worry, if it doesn't work out, I'm holding to my agreement to self ban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the storm $hitttt the bed as soon as Randy started the thread. that rhymes btw Just imagine if you had started it. The storm would now be down in Cuba getting some ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 if there is any good news from the run...that Great Lakes low hasnt started diving yet and the storm is already off the VA capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: the storm $hitttt the bed as soon as Randy started the thread. that rhymes btw Dude, I already have a 70s R&B style beat in mind for this...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't worry, if it doesn't work out, I'm holding to my agreement to self ban. You probably wont need to..... Most weenies will have already left the building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 40 minutes ago, Ji said: JB wont be referencing the Brazilian Model for this storm--Fail https://weather.us/model-charts/bra/usa/sea-level-pressure/20180312-1200z.html Is he even on board for this storm? I don't follow him regularly, once in a while I will watch a video or read a post just to see what he is on about if I have time and am bored.... but a couple days ago (last time I checked) he was very non committal and wishy washy on if he thought this would phase or not. For him that is almost a firm NO since there is rarely a storm he doesn't compare to 1996 or 1993. Also...he tends to bust horribly for the DC area in general. Makes sense because DC has had the least luck with snow over the last 10 years or so of all the northeast cities...and JB simply hypes snow so he will do better in locations that get lucky and get a lot of snow and look like a genius. And places that don't snow he will look stupid. Its a simple equation. I also think he doesn't understand our climo because he sometimes references storms that missed DC as analogs to justify snow in DC lol. But the last few times I read or watched him I definitely noticed a lack of "talk" about our area...when he does that it isnt good because he usually deals with a bust by just moving on and focusing on the places he did good and ignoring or minimizing where he sucked (here) again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 HM called the prospects for this storm "bleak", so that's not making me feel great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 @mappy Can we please ban posting of 6/18z gfs? They are complete garbage runs. No idea why GFS runs 4 times a day with 2 times being old data, lower res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Is he even on board for this storm? I don't follow him regularly, once in a while I will watch a video or read a post just to see what he is on about if I have time and am bored.... but a couple days ago (last time I checked) he was very non committal and wishy washy on if he thought this would phase or not. For him that is almost a firm NO since there is rarely a storm he doesn't compare to 1996 or 1993. Also...he tends to bust horribly for the DC area in general. Makes sense because DC has had the least luck with snow over the last 10 years or so of all the northeast cities...and JB simply hypes snow so he will do better in locations that get lucky and get a lot of snow and look like a genius. And places that don't snow he will look stupid. Its a simple equation. I also think he doesn't understand our climo because he sometimes references storms that missed DC as analogs to justify snow in DC lol. But the last few times I read or watched him I definitely noticed a lack of "talk" about our area...when he does that it isnt good because he usually deals with a bust by just moving on and focusing on the places he did good and ignoring or minimizing where he sucked (here) again. Hasn’t said much. He nailed yesterday better than almost anyone though. Had only like 3-5 for NYC til the last minute. I’ve noticed once inside 72 hours his forecasts for amounts can be pretty good. Prior to that though he is often off the rails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: HM called the prospects for this storm "bleak", so that's not making me feel great. he said it LOOKS bleak on latest models that doesn't mean HE thinks it looks bleak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, North Balti Zen said: HM called the prospects for this storm "bleak", so that's not making me feel great. He’s in central Jersey fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: @mappy Can we please ban posting of 6/18z gfs? They are complete garbage runs. No idea why GFS runs 4 times a day with 2 times being old data, lower res. Can we please not start litigating this all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: @mappy Can we please ban posting of 6/18z gfs? They are complete garbage runs. No idea why GFS runs 4 times a day with 2 times being old data, lower res. Can we please ban dumb posting? They don't use old data and are not lower res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chase said: He’s in central Jersey fwiw. I know, but he also knows this area, and has been on this forum before. He's a valued voice. And, frankly, I am more than a little worried about "fringed" being where I am in Baltimore with a set-up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Subtropics said: @mappy Can we please ban posting of 6/18z gfs? They are complete garbage runs. No idea why GFS runs 4 times a day with 2 times being old data, lower res. Either you are completely uninformed or you are trolling. The 6z and 18z GFS receive copious amounts of satellite derived data. It is not "old data" and it is not "lower res" they just do not receive weather balloon data. However, they get aircraft reports etc in addition to the satellite data. It has been mentioned time and time again by red taggers that the advent of the modern weather satellite has largely reduced the argument about "the energy not being on shore yet" - it can factor in a bit - but satellites see most if not all areas of the globe. We have geostationary satellites and polar orbiting satellites all sending back great data. Just look at the data that the new GOES sends back. Your argument is completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Don't worry, if it doesn't work out, I'm holding to my agreement to self ban. You can self ban until November lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is he even on board for this storm? I don't follow him regularly, once in a while I will watch a video or read a post just to see what he is on about if I have time and am bored.... but a couple days ago (last time I checked) he was very non committal and wishy washy on if he thought this would phase or not. For him that is almost a firm NO since there is rarely a storm he doesn't compare to 1996 or 1993. Also...he tends to bust horribly for the DC area in general. Makes sense because DC has had the least luck with snow over the last 10 years or so of all the northeast cities...and JB simply hypes snow so he will do better in locations that get lucky and get a lot of snow and look like a genius. And places that don't snow he will look stupid. Its a simple equation. I also think he doesn't understand our climo because he sometimes references storms that missed DC as analogs to justify snow in DC lol. But the last few times I read or watched him I definitely noticed a lack of "talk" about our area...when he does that it isnt good because he usually deals with a bust by just moving on and focusing on the places he did good and ignoring or minimizing where he sucked (here) again. he has hardly mentioned this storm which is concerning. I think in my gut its game over...ensembles suck....pro mets dont like it....all i am hoping for now is just some blind good luck. JB is the only person i have ever heard talk about the brazilian model which is why i made the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I'm OK with the Central VA bullseye at this range. Models do that a lot. It'll slide north at least a bit. Agree with this... I am ok if the consensus today settles on a central VA jackpot. I don't want to see that start to get south of Richmond though...thats when we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ji said: the northern stream ull closed off and slowed down...had that been as fast as 6z...would of nailed us. With that being said..the precip field is pathetic for such a strong low. Ive seen lows in Alabama give moisture to NE Pennsylvania lol One other difference is the speed...the system is 6 hours faster...thats not good. Bumps up against the departing 50/50 more...plus races it out ahead of the NS a bit more...and gives things less time to amplify. It's close enough...and its the long range NAM so...whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Biggest GFS run of Ji's life coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: Biggest GFS run of Ji's life coming up! Just Ji’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: if there is any good news from the run...that Great Lakes low hasnt started diving yet and the storm is already off the VA capes yea but like i said above the faster speed of the STJ wave also means less room to amplify behind the departing 50/50 so if its not one problem its the other...there is a shorter window then I would like there between those two features. But there is one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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